Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?
*G* It's not me you have to worry about now, my youngest just got her license today!
Is there a Panama, Illinois or a Panama, North Dakota? That would make much more sense.
Remember PI...You're that southern born boy...who went Yankee....lol...:/
Yes, there is. Link
Thanks! That makes a lot of sense, I can read it much better now
I hear you. I still get nervous driving with my youngest. I think I will feel better next year when he turns 29.
How do we know, your pseudonym says it's private.
Thanks. That's probably the Panama they're talking about.
Looks all west for a while.
You're welcome. It gets more in depth than that, but that's a foundation for you. :-)
GFS 60 hours:
Few Yankees this far west lots more in Fl.
There is also a Panama, NY just across the border from Pennsylvania
You're in New Providence?
Link
I've been called worse!.....(I think)
Showing a weak system.
And 102hrs...
GFS is showing persistence.
I did! So far no aurora, although there's significant light pollution where I am. Scattered clouds are moving in. Maybe in an hour or so I'll hop in the car and drive to a darker area. The peak will be around 1:30 am Central time, right?
Isn't it past your bedtime, old man?
Where snow is a greater threat than surge??
Yes, I think that's correct.
I think the stronger system has been later in the run...we'll see if it pops up again.
given its way in the middle of the atlantic and the models have it developing this early.. i suspect franklyn will be our first hurricane. jmo
Thanks. lol I'm pretty sure it calls in Nassau on alternate routes.
Allan's page version looks nicer. :)
Agreed! It's much easier to see things, in my opinion.
Silly boy....He just got up....Mornin' Grothar!
I believe the 12z Euro has a weak system and only strengthens it by the end of the run.
They let us stay up late on Friday nights. We have to wind down from Bingo.
Same here... seeing some good flashes...
I've been watching the Great Salt Lake for possible TC development but so far....nada.
LOL. That is too funny...Thanks for the laugh.
Ego.
That's our troublesome Emily in the North Central Atl.
I am at my happiest when the weather is quiet. I dream of a future where only weak cool fronts and gentle tropical waves will allow for a new age of climate stability like we had in the past.
Interesting, and does link to a NOAA page, with links to historical hurricanes (by year, then storm).
NOAA Surface Wind Analysis
Called the H*Wind Project:
"...The purpose is to develop an integrated tropical cyclone observing system in which wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms could be used to develop an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a hurricane..."
Appears to be a detailed analysis of wind fields as time went by.
Every meteorologist, whether it be an enthusiast, or an expert holding a degree of mastery has their opinion on weather forecasts. The NHC should be respected for their decisions and forecasts but they are not miracle workers and can't foresee the future (in a weather perspective), even if everyone who works for them do hold PH.D. degrees and are experts within the subject. It all goes down to this:
Weather is unpredictable and changes constantly. No one can predict what will change next within the atmosphere, not even highly respected models or people holding degrees in meteorology.
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