Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Every meteorologist, whether it be an enthusiast, or an expert holding a degree of mastery has their opinion on weather forecasts. The NHC should be respected for their decisions and forecasts but they are not miracle workers and can't foresee the future (in a weather perspective), even if everyone who works for them do hold PH.D. degrees and are experts within the subject. It all goes down to this:
Weather is unpredictable and changes constantly. No one can predict what will change next within the atmosphere, not even highly respected models or people holding degrees in meteorology.
prospect track.... i see the models seem to be taking it westward at the moment?
I think it's ok to question the NHC, It's like a student questioning a teacher to learn more. I would never shoot them down if they got anything wrong. Weather is not an exact science, it's always changing.
To me the position of the high would enable weaker storms to travel west in the central atlantic. If it became a strong system after 60W it would travel north of PR and DR and skirt around the high out to sea, if it stayed weak it would go through the Caribbean, if it became strong before 60W then it would follow the weakness in the central Atlantic and be a fish storm. Is that correct?
Would this be the pattern setting up?
No sign of aurora here tonight. I used to see it when I lived in Wisconsin.
LOL Lake Michigan isn't producing any, either. But we did get Snowpocalypse back in February. It's a shame we don't have any of that snow left to send to Texas.
Yes, I do agree. But the NHC has a team, not one, of experts which are legitimate experts. So out of everyone, they will have the best forecast, and they do. Look at Emily...as hard as this storm was to predict if you look at a time evolution of the official track, they were pretty much accurate.
Aug, 6th 2015
A large area of disturbed weather persists over the South Western Bahamas and Cuba associated with the Remnants of Emily 2011. There is a high chance 70% of this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48hrs.
A second area just east of the lesser antillies is showing signs of organization. Should this area develop into a tropical storm we will need to assign a new name as the next up name, Emily, is still being used. There is a high chance 90% of a tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Indeed it is...it looks stronger than ever out there. However, I'd be surprised if it were warm core.
You are spot on. They are the best-of-the-best and do a great job. A lot of people here spend a lot of time splitting hairs about the forecast but the NHC is almost always correct.
i noticed that as well... a repeat of last year?
I think you'll find that this is the link to your blog.
You out west or out east Baha?
I understand your opinion, but how often is the teacher wrong? :)
That's a good point, but what's a few more billion dollars possibly. It's like throwing a cup of water on a structure fire.
A good teacher is seldom wrong because they admit when they don't know the answer to a question and pursue the answer with their student.
Nuttin but torn up beaches and no rain....
I'm a teacher and am never wrong. I also refuse to work with the student on anything. If anything, I'll give them more homework if they doubt me. :)
Look at the cone up to three days out and see where the cane goes in three days... it's almost always within the cone. I admit they're off when it's more than that though. They really shouldn't have a five day cone. It's kind of pointless.
Maybe not wrong, per se, but at times they don't get it exactly right. There are people who expect perfection from the experts, and jump all over them when that doesn't happen. Predicting weather of any kind is a challenge. But if it were easy it wouldn't be fun!
Do your homework. WE could use several large hurricanes right now. It would help the economy.
Yes, I know they don't get everything correct all the time. Honestly though, do you think most people on this blog have a better idea where the storm is going than people who have Ph. D.'s who have been studying storms for 30 years? I know it's just a blog and it's not designed to be a prediction center, but it kind of irks me when people discredit experts so readily.
The first one is quite a lowrider!
Isn't it mostly insurance money though which would cause everyone's premium to increase which would hurt even more people?
That one actually ends up in the Bahamas.
It's good not be be overly accepting and fawni ng in our attitude towards NHC; however, some bloggers act as if the NHC is always wrong about everything and never give credit where it is due. To me, a balanced approach is better.
I've never heard a good teacher say anything like that. Someone who teaches is supposed to remember this golden rule. You never stop learning. That learning comes from experiences including being wrong at one point or another. Also they know working with the students can sometimes lead to great things. Why do you think college professors have students researching for them in the labs?
Do you live near the coast? Is that an atruistic offer?
Cold fusion and/or a goose laying golden eggs would help the economy.
So they can get more grant money. :)
Might be the single dumbest thing I have ever seen. Sure the money comes in. Too bad the dead folks won't see any of it.
Didnt mean to offend you. My homework is done now do yours. And I disagree that WE need several hurricanes. Thats a ridiculous statement
Haha that may be part of it but the main part is they realize the students can sometimes see things through a new eye. We can see things they can't. Heck even in my classes we have caught things that the profs haven't. In times like this and studying things such as meteorology the line between student and teacher becomes very blurred.
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