Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Haha that may be part of it but the main part is they realize the students can sometimes see things through a new eye. We can see things they can't. Heck even in my classes we have caught things that the profs haven't. In times like this and studying things such as meteorology the line between student and teacher becomes very blurred.
Quite simply, it is because it is not their opinion. This is a blog of opinions you know. Your absolutely right though, the NHC is greatly discredited everyday on this blog. Humans make mistakes now and then but, NHC is most always dead on.
I understand your point. I just think if the NHC doesn't know what's going happen, there's a slim chance someone here will know what's going to happen.
Both systems cross the Lesser Antilles, NE Caribbean islands (PR, DR or Virgin Islands), over the Bahamas and make a hard turn to the right, and never hit the Conus.
Interesting to see both doing the exact same thing. O.o
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.34W
I doubt it.
Ok, ok, I admit it... I've made a mistake or two. Are you happy? :(
Can u pls post a link to the run??
Would like to see the Euro before believing the GFS. :P
I guess it's really hard to see a joke in a blog. :)
No Franklin the puppet from Arrested Development. That was a good Franklin.
Wow
Noaa version: Link
Allan's page version: Link (I prefer this one)
And thats because they are a collective. It's not all on one forecaster or another. There may be one writing the discussion but he didn't make the forecast for the storm all on his own. A team of great minds from the new intern to the expert working as a collective is 1000times more powerful and correct than 1 forecaster acting alone.
That's what makes this Dr Masters blog fun also because we get to when not being trolled work with the collective of people from all groups. We have Mets like Dr. Masters and Angela. Students such as a growing number of us on here and also those that have just tracked the storms for years. Most of them time we're not as good as the NHC but sometimes our collective can catch some small details they do not.
Having said that theres a reason they call it the ART of meteorology. It's not an exact science and probably never will be. Sometimes you're right and others you fail miserable. What makes you a good forecaster is admitting when you don't know or when you made a mistake and be willing to move on.
Just what we need, right?
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.34W
heres a different better view
Unfortunately, we seem to have a climate (ugh, but the pun stays) in this country where bashing the experts has become practically a sport. Those kinds of folks show up here, just like anywhere on the Internet. OTOH, there are many people posting in these comment threads who know meteorology, and challenge themselves to see if they can do as well or better than the NHC. And in the process share their knowledge with the rest of us.
Tonight the blog's been tremendous fun, with friendly exchanges of ideas. We can wish it were always so.
Thank you, looks like the high is setting up quite NE this yr
Been a regular here since 03, didn't pay until 05. I know the deal.
Tis the only reason I came out of lurk mode. Well that and I finally have a few weeks off before the next semester starts.
The blog tonight reminds me of the good old days back when we had the original stormtop haha. But if everyone is wondering why I seem to have just reappeared it's because I took down all my pics and left during a bad time on here and have just over the past little while decided to come back on and share my college Met experiences. (It seems safer other than a few trolls.) Senior year is going to be fun.
that would be east of Florida Columbus, not west
Sarcasm is a difficult feat on a blog....just sayin....:^)
Ok, I rest my case. Several of you have had excellent counter-points against my original view. My mind is a little more open now, but I'm still going with the NHC all the time. :)
That's what I was thinking, right up our a^%, I mean ally.
Good for the US, Western Caribbean, bad for the NE Caribbean, lesser Antilles and Bahamas. :\
Which means more rain for me. :( Shoo! Franklin Shoo! Go to Texas! XD
Do u think that pattern will persist into the peak of the season?
Duh yeah! Seems my brain is shutting down early.
Fixed
Same. Back then I was one of the annoying kids on the blog. In high school and trying to learn all I could off of people on here. Made a few wishcast back in the day and made a lot of friends. Im still so glad my aunt showed her weird obsessed with hurricanes and their formation nephew this site. It has helped me to learn and grow almost as much as my classes.
Looks like the very edge goes down that far. You'd need to look very close to the horizon though.
Haha give me a few more years and then I'd say go with me instead but then again my dream job is to be at the NHC so you'd still be going with them.
yes me too however I have been burned in the past by them see Irene 1999 yikes what a bad forecast! Also Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa
Spudville, I use to live in Winterpark as well, now live on the wet side of the Cascades.
My college is evil. I can tell you how stuff forms and why it forms and go into all those nitty gritty details but they make us wait till senior year to start taking forecasting classes. Though hopefully by spring semester I'll be in a graduate level tropical meteorology class. Right now the main foucus has been mid latitude systems.
Is a Ph. D. a requirement to work as a forecaster for the NHC, or do accept other degrees?
Yes, Charlie was there worst blunder in recent memory, but they've been very good track wise the last few years.
So, your a dauber, lol
This is a great place, that's why I come. However, my statement was point directed and 100% true. There is still a think tank here however, it was thriving back when I joined. Problem is nowadays is that it's so clouded with crap and too many people wanting to be Cheif's. Not enough Indians around most of the time.
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