Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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What's next?
This is upper dry air, atmospheric sounding show dry aloft and high tropical moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere in the region where the remnants of Emily is. Still this upper dry air shows how shallow the remnant low is.
Saying that anything is clearly dominant right now is incorrect. There is nothing clearly dominant about a broad area of low pressure.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
Looks like the shear just cuts it when it gets too high.
Well the center is pretty darn clear to me, if its not clear to everyone then I apologize, but I'm pointing it so its easier to follow where the whole spin is moving at the moment. That way its easier to track to see if it keeps moving WNW or if it begins to turn north.
AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV
Those coordinates do not go hand in hand with the western area of vorticity.
That puts it much closer to the spin just north of Cuba.
Actually that makes alot more sense based on the satellite obs.. Look at the V signature.. Classic looking for a developing system.
Can't remember where the last fix was... did they move it west?
8-10 Day 500MB Mean
The coordinates are by the vort center, though. I'm sure they know where to mark the center better than all of us.
Boy, that is going to throw the models for a huge loop.
Wonder out of how many of them see us argue over hurricanes and GW.
Actually the NHC had their track further east, heading NW then WNW.. I just thought it was cool.
Refuses to go away, is not getting better or worse, is frustrating, annoying, and totally unpredictable.
I hope that the rain forecasts for Haiti are wrong though!
In the meantime, heavy rain and some thunder around here this morning with the promise of plenty more to come.
Could be a wet weekend....
No Problem!
Post 195
This is the JFV imposter right?
Nope, it's actually him. Exchanged some colorful emails with him yesterday.
We'll see how it plays out.
Got it... thanks... moved it a good bit west... could have implications down the road.
Like Don.
I don't know about exploding just looks like typical convection to me. No indication that the remnants are ready to become name again, yet.
LOL...I wouldn't ask me...
This is deemed an untasked mission.
Have you done any analysis as why TC formation is somewhat expected SE of LA, according to the map?
Are any models hinting at any extra-tropical formation?
will the models shift west with new info tia
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