Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I suspect the 1800 numbers will be very different from that...
You are Correct... Shes about to head into the gulf stream.
http://www.portlight.org/
Link
If the NHC description is correct, the coc is actually under the heavy convection for a change...
Where is Recon?
supposed to be there soon
There is no data from Recon on Google Earth? Are they up in the Air?
here on the Treasure Coast. I suspect that will change soon.
000
URNT15 KNHC 061628
AF307 1405A EMILY HDOB 01 20110806
Link
How are you over? Any wind?
Good News... Ex-Emily just expanded...
Which way do I go??? Do I follow the flow???
Shes clearly heading WNW or NW... Not due W... Not due N.. She's heading in between.
some folks are saying wind shear from the east is causing an 'optical illusion'. i don't think so.
overcast in Miami Beach as well. Winds are calm. Hoping for some rain this pm.
Misson 14 into Emily
AF307 - Air Force WC-130J
Updated on our site at:
16:30Z on Aug 6, 2011
It appears that the Bermuda high is stronger than expected, and ridging towards the west.
Direction of Travel: NE (41°)
Location: 11 miles (17 km) to the ENE (78°) from Gulfport, MS, USA
Did you see this earlier... another Bahamian surfaces:
2136. androsann 7:49 AM EDT on August 06, 2011 +1
Morning all, long time lurker and very occasional poster here from the very north of Andros Island in The Bahamas where we are having heavy, continuous rain at the moment with some thunder and a very light breeze. Am expecting it to continue like this for much of the day.
Member Since: September 2, 2008
Conditions at SMKF1 as of
(12:00 pm EDT)
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 0 kts
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
12:00 pm N ( 0 deg ) 0 kts
11:50 am E ( 96 deg ) 0 kts
11:40 am ESE ( 112 deg ) 0 kts
11:30 am S ( 186 deg ) 1 kts
11:20 am SE ( 132 deg ) 1 kts
11:10 am S ( 172 deg ) 1 kts
Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
11:22 am S ( 190 deg ) 3 kts
08 06 11:00 am S 1 2 - - - - 29.99 +0.04 87.4 - 78.4 - - 0.20
08 06 10:00 am - 0 1 - - - - 29.98 +0.03 87.6 - 77.9 - - 0.06
08 06 9:00 am ESE 1 2 - - - - 29.96 +0.04 86.0 - 76.5 - - 0.15
08 06 8:00 am ENE 2 2 - - - - 29.95 +0.02 85.5 - 76.3 - - 0.39
08 06 7:00 am NE 2 3 - - - - 29.95 +0.03 84.6 - 76.5 - - 0.77
08 06 6:00 am - 0 2 - - - - 29.93 +0.00 84.6 - 76.1 - - 1.23
So that means?
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