Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:54 GMT le 05 août 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1769 - 1719

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

1769. emcf30
Quoting aquak9:
1742- thanks for the graphic you posted. No auroras for me. Probably best.

No I am not scared of fireworks....but something glowing and moving and wierd in the sky would probably send me running under the sofa.

FirstCoast- all is well here. No fleas, fresh puppy chow. Life is good.


The auroras would probably make your duck spin around in circles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1768. jeebsa
Glad to help LOL
Quoting Grothar:


It was nice of you do start that. At my age it is nice to know where I am at any given time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katadman:


That says it is the statistical extent of the aurora. I wonder where we could find a similar device that would show what is expected tonight.
Exactly it shows the CURRENT extent of the Aurora not the forcasted, by 2:30 it should reach max when KP hits severe limits of 8.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1766. jeebsa
Well as soon as summer vacation is over we should see alot less Trolls.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Thank the trolls for that. Many of them did post back in the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1765. aquak9
oh Hi grothar! did not know you were here with us. Cold-nose puppy kisses for you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1764. 7544
did ex ems stall out
Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1763. Grothar
Quoting jeebsa:
I didnt realize my Question about where is everybody from in a earlier post I did would be such a hit. Its nice to see so many new post from so many lurkers on here.It sure beats the same old same old.


It was nice of you do start that. At my age it is nice to know where I am at any given time.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Yes, I looked it up. I have always wanted to see the AB. I had a story published in Odyssey, Adventures in Science, a couple of years ago that explains the Inuits story of what the AB is. It's always fascinated me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeebsa:
I truly didnt have a clue there were this many people lurking. Im truly impressed.


Thank the trolls for that. Many of them did post back in the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1760. aquak9
1742- thanks for the graphic you posted. No auroras for me. Probably best.

No I am not scared of fireworks....but something glowing and moving and wierd in the sky would probably send me running under the sofa.

FirstCoast- all is well here. No fleas, fresh puppy chow. Life is good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
Here's the aurora's extent:



That says it is the statistical extent of the aurora. I wonder where we could find a similar device that would show what is expected tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1758. 786
Hi hope someone wouldn't mind taking a minute to respond to my question. I am trying to learn how to read the steering maps. Currently it looks like the Bermuda and Azores highs are bridged as there is a straight line running across the bottom of the two. It also looks like the Bermuda high is weakening but coming together with the Azores high. This is prob totally wrong but that's how it looks to me...any guidance would be great TIA

Btw if Dr. M, Angela or Rob read this, I hope there will be a blog soon on the steering currents as there has been in past years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
Here's the aurora's extent:

Yup and it should get lower beacuse the Kp index right now is 6 and the max tonight is 8. I believe it updates everyhour. So ppl in Pens look outside right now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.W.
05L/XX/XX
MARK
23.69N/76.33W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1755. jonelu
Quoting brianc:
Apologies in advance if this is a mind numbingly dull question...but if there is a 70% chance of xEmily developing as it moves northwest at 10mph...why is the NHC telling the central and norhtwestern Bahamas to monitor the system but not South Florida where the distrubance is heading?

I believe its because the majority of the "weather" is on the right side of the system. So the Bahamas will be most effected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bout to tell RemEm to do something or move on, lol, she's giving me a complex, she just sits there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting markw:
NO...it didn't take 8 years to introduce myself. Because I started looking at the site that many years ago does not mean I've been hanging around that long.



Hey there Mark.....I also found the site a few years before I found the blog....Sure did help out with Katrina in 2005....but I didnt join til 2010 and start blogging.....please stop by and blog more often :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PGIgirl:
Another Florida lurker here. However i happen to be in Montana, just south of Glacier National Park. Will I be able to see the aurora here when it finally gets dark? I've seen spectacular shows in northern Indiana.


That ought to be a prime spot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1751. jeebsa
I truly didnt have a clue there were this many people lurking. Im truly impressed.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You'd be surprised if you knew how many people were "Here" at any given time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1750. DFWjc
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, DVG. Doesn't look like it will make it this far south if I was looking at the correct thing.


Post 1742 for the map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1749. Grothar
Quoting robj144:
Here's the aurora's extent:



Wow, thanks for that. Looks like a big one.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting DVG:


spaceweather dot com has a picture showing the extent of the aurora's reach


Thanks, DVG. Doesn't look like it will make it this far south if I was looking at the correct thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1747. PGIgirl
Another Florida lurker here. However i happen to be in Montana, just south of Glacier National Park. Will I be able to see the aurora here when it finally gets dark? I've seen spectacular shows in northern Indiana.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeebsa:
I didnt realize my Question about where is everybody from in a earlier post I did would be such a hit. Its nice to see so many new post from so many lurkers on here.It sure beats the same old same old.


You'd be surprised if you knew how many people were "Here" at any given time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
aquak9...how have u been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1744. j2008
Quoting jeebsa:
I didnt realize my Question about where is everybody from in a earlier post I did would be such a hit. Its nice to see so many new post from so many lurkers on here.It sure beats the same old same old.

Yea it was a pretty big hit. BTW I think I'm the only one from Arizona here LOL!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
PaulInJax- yeah, you're more than welcome to lurk. I always say, ya can't learn nothing when your mouth is open.

I ain't learned a damn thing in six years, hahaha

Keeper- we are so hazy that I can not even see the stars tonight. Oh well....but they (auroras) might frighten me, I think. I hope all ya'll up further north get a grand show. I really do.


I thought you were just frightened by fireworks.;^)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1742. robj144
Here's the aurora's extent:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


...and that's why my yard is gnome-free.


uff-da
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the ATCF fix, RemEm hasn't moved an inch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1738. brianc
Apologies in advance if this is a mind numbingly dull question...but if there is a 70% chance of xEmily developing as it moves northwest at 10mph...why is the NHC telling the central and norhtwestern Bahamas to monitor the system but not South Florida where the distrubance is heading?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1737. robj144
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Txhurricane11 said it and Keeper did not say anything to correct him, also lights were seen as far south as southern germany.


Just google it... I multiple sources that said it would come down as far south as Pennsylvania. I hope they're wrong though as I would love to see one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1736. aquak9
PaulInJax- yeah, you're more than welcome to lurk. I always say, ya can't learn nothing when your mouth is open.

I ain't learned a damn thing in six years, hahaha

Keeper- we are so hazy that I can not even see the stars tonight. Oh well....but they (auroras) might frighten me, I think. I hope all ya'll up further north get a grand show. I really do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
DAM, see what you started? Sure, pick on the tuber.


lol, good one. I'll be remembering that ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1733. jeebsa
I didnt realize my Question about where is everybody from in a earlier post I did would be such a hit. Its nice to see so many new post from so many lurkers on here.It sure beats the same old same old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1732. DFWjc
Quoting GTcooliebai:
cool, I'll make sure to add that to places I want to visit before I die :)


I'd enjoy going there or Victoria, well worth the ferry ride over. The aquarium is awesome, the botanical gardens simple beautiful, and the eateries are amazing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1731. DVG
Quoting aislinnpaps:
If the aurora gets as far south as Louisiana, someone call me! Sigh, I hate the thought of sleeping through it though I have a feeling most of us will.


spaceweather dot com has a picture showing the extent of the aurora's reach
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
South America?! Holy crap this can take out some satilites.


Panama is geographically in Central America, although politically more aligned with Columbia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1729. markw
NO...it didn't take 8 years to introduce myself. Because I started looking at the site that many years ago does not mean I've been hanging around that long.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was just checking an observation out of Cuba... Jardines del Ray on the north-central coast near 22.5N 78.3W and there is a SW to WSW wind blowing at present, pressure 1012. Note this is south of a nice, albeit small blob of convection. KAMX (Miami NEXRAD) picking it up nicely with spin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PaulinJax:
Is it lurking when you are trying to learn and do not have the vocab and knowledge to add thoughtful comment to the discussion ?

Then I am a lurker too ...

Thanks evryone


No, lurking does not imply knowledge level whatsoever. Ask questions if you want to learn more!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


If you ever want to experience their city's hospitality, get a bed and breakfast up the over looking deep cove area.. So beautiful to wake up to...and the people are so nice!
cool, I'll make sure to add that to places I want to visit before I die :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bedtime for me.
Emily won't be back before I am.
Goodnight everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WeathernerdPR,
Emily loves you too, and shell be back to annoy you once more in the morning... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1723. emcf30


This was from 2004 in Seattle, It would be cool to see them in CFL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Do you have a source because I don't really believe it will get as far south as Panama?
Txhurricane11 said it and Keeper did not say anything to correct him, also lights were seen as far south as southern germany.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good nigh t guys. Enjoy the sites if they arrive in your area. Pleasant dreams!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


I looked out my front door (which faces north) and I see some lights.


...and that's why my yard is gnome-free.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Quoting PregressivePlus Surface map:
You see that low pressure in NE GOM, that is the trough split that could give Ex-Emily a weakness and allow her to head a little further west before curving out...



Yeah, I see that. That's been an eventual player since day 1. Just wonder why the forecasts aside from that surface map are completely opposite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1769 - 1719

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
39 ° F
Pluie fine