Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 — Blog Index
that is where the gfs had dean at this far out in 2007. Just look for persistency this far out as to whether something will form or not
is true
Link
I believe that's Gert.
I think we are done with emily as far as any future land interaction. It will be heading out into the wild blue yonder!
;p
"Hey! Here are the links to the Introduction and cover art to my new novel "Chasers" I am about to complete. (Synopsis: A rag-tag team of government workers and storm chasers discover a deadly secret that lies within the inner eye wall of dangerous hurricanes.)"
Cover Art
Introduction
A very dangerous pattern indeed. That storm I posted passed near PR, over Hispaniola and approaches NC by the end of the run.
Wow, that's a big storm. Good bit out, so might not happen, but still something to watch. I remember the EMCWF was at one point bringing one of last year's Cape Verde storms over Florida as a major cane, but then we didn't have any landfalls.
It actually does look like the even the low level center is moving WNW right now, but no more than 5 mph. Like I said, don't be convinced its going into Florida, because it should continue North. However, it does appear to be drifting WNW or NW right now. If you look at the long range radar, you can find the center of circulation which appears to have shifted west.
Again though, I will stress, unorganized systems like this can be deceiving to the eye, I agree that a westerly movement seems to be the case but that doesn't mean it is. Radar itself tilts upward and the farther away everything is the more the radar beams are returning from a higher elevation angle, not only because of the radar tilt itself, but because of the earth's curve as well.
That being said, what I am most likely looking at on radar is a mid-level spin moving WNW as a result of heavy convective buildup, but as weak as this is and because of the track record with this system, the low level circulation could still be moving even due north while this spin we see is moving west.
The best we can do is just keep watching it, and let the experts down at the NHC pinpoint for us where the low level center is and where its headed.
Similar track to Emily then, I guess, though it must be stronger than Emily early on so it can survive Hispaniola.
What date is that, 08/22??
Radar agree's with you:
Jesu Santisimo!!!!
Actually Levi...the first four forecast's out five days had emily either hitting SE Florida or going thru the western Bahamas west of or just over grand Bahama. Nearly what she is doing now.
Looks like a setup very similar to Isabel, an area of high pressure to its north forcing it inland.
yeah um in 2 weeks on this 12z GFS run, we have either franklin or gert making landfall in north carolina as a major hurricane. o_0
i agree.
The models don't pick this up very well. Looks like a lot of high shear in the region. I believe the will be more concerned with the wave off of Africa. Still a long way out, but something to really watch.
the 12z run shows NC but the previous run had it going near the FL straits.
just gonna have to wait and see.
I doubt that, dry mid level air wrapped into South Florida this morning per atmospheric soundings. Not sure if its still present, but if it is that will limit convective activity.
Also wherever you have vorticity, you tend to have negative vorticity right outside of it, and high clouds are blowing towards South Florida from the remnants. All those factors will help to keep showers and thunderstorms more tame, not an explosion of them. There will still be some though with deep moisture in the lowers levels and sea breeze convergence.
Up here in Central Florida, we are not under the the negative vorticity, we don't have a large layer of dry mid level air and we have plenty of heating. Therefore thunderstorm coverage will be high in Central and North Florida. The only limiting factor is some mid level warm air which will limit the coverage a little. But still, classic afternoon heavy storms will be around. My area has been getting very heavy storms today in Pinellas County. 7th day in a row with a heavy storm here. Florida is reclaiming swamp land here! lol
Yeah, obviously too far out to take seriously, but it does show the pattern that could set up this season.
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 02
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Saturday, 17:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.8N 84.9W
Location: 149 miles (240 km) to the W (265°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 6,400 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 13 knots (From the SE at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -11°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
D-value: 41 geopotential meters
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE SQUALLS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA
Be careful though, like I said, radar and the eye can be deceiving!
It's the year for the East Coast.
If I'm not mistaken, the GFS shows shear improving somewhat today and tomorrow (an improvement since the 2nd). The mass of dry air moving in front of it seems to be more detrimental to the development. Please let me know if I'm completely off here.
Nada.
Some of them did, but had the short-term track incorrect, which is very important for the folks in Hispaniola. You can't forget that.
The models were making 100-200 mile shifts right up until she dissipated.
Viewing: 2651 - 2701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 — Blog Index