Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Some of them did, but had the short-term track incorrect, which is very important for the folks in Hispaniola. You can't forget that.
The models were making 100-200 mile shifts right up until she dissipated.
Link
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING.
The NHC noticed.
SAL
Muifa
No biggie.
You KNOW who you are....I am not going to quote you, this is all the glory you'll get from me.. :-) :-)
I couldn't help but notice that as well.
Don't need another Isabel passing over my house.
No, not completely off. Shear and dry air combined are always a hinderance for development.
Not with Emily though, this is 300 hrs out.
You probably won't, biggest chance you'll get rain is when the deep westerly flow comes around when those remnants depart. Ive been getting heavy storms 7 days straigt and over 20 inches since the rain kicked in in late June. Who needs tropical cyclone/low pressure systems when our daily pattern generates plenty of rain.
Seriously, we don't want a tropical cyclone in Florida, the drought is improving off the daily storm pattern, people are acting like we are still in Mid June when everything was bad. If you don't believe me, go look at what NOAA has to say about drought improvement in Florida.
Granted it got so bad that it still has a long way to go, but overall it has improved greatly. Florida doesn't need tropical cyclones.
Being also a naturalist/outdoorsman along with being a weather lover, I have spent a lot of time in different parts of the State over the last few months. Much of Central and South Florida has definitely improved dramatically. Ground water still has a long way to go, but everything is headed the right way.
THAT
is some quality radar.
Anyone have a Troll Hammer?
noted and changed sir!
The only other ob sites on that island listed on WU have no precip observations.
Kadena AFB is not on WU, but NOAA's international weather has it. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html
The 24 hour recap says 30 inches, but the rain started long before 17 UTC yesterday according to radar. According to another, private source, closer to 42 inches, total, for Muifa's passage at Kadena.
Believable, given the radar loop for Muifa's passage: Link
Some of that is undoubtedly orographically enhanced:
I was also affected by Isabel, further inland in Richmond VA, but the damage was pretty bad here.
Anyway, that's two weeks out, so the actual storm its showing doesn't matter. However, what we can take away from this is that the GFS is heating up the wave train big time. Those near record warm SSTs over the MDR will be coming into play very soon.
Typhoons Sugar Cane and rice,,Just like Louisiana.
Yeah, it's called the ignore user button, removes them straight away.
I follow you, were talking about the same thing.
:)
I think I broke the
Actually, we have a nice breeze here at the home of Frances and Jeanne and light clouds approaching from the SE. It is pretty pleasant outside--as opposed to yesterday when I broke into a sweat walking to my car!
No, we only have the mildly effective insect repellent here... All other forms of troll warfare have been banned by the WGeneva Convention.
We sure could use the rain.
"Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W
Splash Time: 17:38Z
Release Location: 27.85N 85.05W
Release Time: 17:31:04Z
Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W
Splash Time: 17:38:17Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)"
That is staggering, the devastation there must be large in scale.
Freakin ridiculous amount of rain! It seems like tropical cyclones, and just the weather in general outputs bigger rainfall amounts in that part of world than over here.
Hey, I resemble that remark! Don't need another Frances or Jeanne!
Dry air over PR...it's a miracle!
I'm in Glen Allen and work in Northside. Northside looked like a war zone for weeks. It was pretty bad up here.
Nice to see another local!
Trey-
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