Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I'm pretty sure the stronger winds are in the south side, and where do you see multiple vorticies? TIA
Station LKWF1
NOS
Location: 26.612N 80.033W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 06 Aug 2011 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: N (10°) at 14.0 kt gusting to 15.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and falling
Air Temperature: 85.3 F
Water Temperature: 87.1 F
I wouldn't go that far. We'll have to see if it can refire convection, as its looking a little meager on the latest images. Not bad looking on visible.
could you look at post #2853 and explain to me what i am looking at...LOL. i'm seeing the clouds move east to west in that picture.....over Florida and into the gulf. but i also see in the steering maps what the poster means about it being steered north. i'm just trying to figure out what i'm seeing in post 2853. thanks!
That isn't what he was referring to. He was talking about off the coast of Africa.
As of 30 min ago, the winds were still out of the north. If you watch this buoy, you will be able to tell if the low level "center" passes north or south of it, based on the change in wind direction.
NDBC Data Buoy
Thats why I added the part about satellite images.
my bad.
No I was talking about the african wave.
I don't think it's quite a TD yet, but I'd expect an invest pretty soon.
Weren't we saying that about pre-91L (pre-pre Emily)? lol
Yep 92L
I think they should head south. Those strong thunderstorms seem promising.
Pull up the Vortex data message, tell me something. Is the report that we have right now listed on the site, current or from a former recon flight?
TD6 will be with us in 36 hours
Emily will reform in 6 hours
Franklin will form from TD6 in 42 hours
She's just blowing off a little steam, probably still pissed about the whole D.R./Haiti thing, hehe.
For Ex-Emily:
A: 80-% chance of development
B: Stil 80% chance of development
C: 81%-100% chance of development
D: Tropical Depression Emily
E: Tropical Storm Emily
F: Other
For African Wave
A: Invest
B: 0%-50% chance of development
C: 50%-80% chance of development
D: 80%-100% chance of development
E: TD6
f: Other
http://www.rockybay.com/
Live shot elbow cay Bahamas.
SSW 34 knts.
meanwhile
N winds in freeport 16 knts
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =SPGF1
E
A,B
F
and
F
Off the side, anyone seen or heard from hurricanecrab as of late?
http://www.rockybay.com/
Live shot.
Seas a churnnin.... 25 to 35 knts out of the south.
hope town has reported 40 MPH winds earlier today
sustained at 30 now. SOuth
Viewing: 3001 - 3051
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