Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:54 GMT le 05 août 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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Don't forget: Eugene is still maintaining its eye! it's eye has not yet disappeared even though it's losing intensity!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


The Dynamic models do not make sense... its moving WNW/NW right now... The Dynamic models have it moving Due North.
I know the BAM's models are dynamic. What type of model is the LBAR?
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1317. cwf1069
Good evening wunderbloggers. Can someone give me the buoys link. Thank you in advance.
Emily is looking better. Convergence and divergence have'd improved since this afternoon and sheer is almost nil. The environment around it have been moistened.
Emily is getting ready for diurnal max. Remember weak systems act by this cycles most of the time.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Note: Dynamic Models havent been updated yet.....

00Z Runs will come out later tonight.
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Quoting Daniel101:
I live in Fort Lauderdale Beach and my thought is that Emily will continue to regenerate through out the night and start moving in a northwesterly direction. She may become a medium tropical storm (50-60 mph)and will get close enough to the east coast of Florida to give us plenty of rain possibly tropical storm winds or at least gusts. If she remains stationary for a longer time then my thought is she will move more north than west and be more of a threat to the NW Bahamas late Sat and Sunday before heading NE out to sea.


I Agree.
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1313. markot
think could be warnings for fla,tomorrow
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Quoting scooster67:


The Dynamic models do not make sense... its moving WNW/NW right now... The Dynamic models have it moving Due North.
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1311. DFWjc
Quoting jeebsa:
As bad as these droughts have been I will take these pest any day. I feel bad for Texas. We still need rain here, It got pretty bad for awhile but we got some rain finaly.


MSNBC has a nice write up about the current situation and if you scroll down it has a video about how a heat dome works, what is heat stroke and how to cope..

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Cloud tops have warmed the past couple of hours, probably due to some effects from d-min and just not having a solid closed low.

Some small convective flare-ups can be seen popping back up in spots. D-max will probably help later tonight:



I was thinking it was the line of Storms that developed in Cuba that temporarily zapped some energy from RemEmily?
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Evening All. Just popping in for a bit. Sorry not quite up to speed on Ex-Emily. What direction is the Ex-Emily Blob moving.. TIA
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1307. jeebsa
As bad as these droughts have been I will take these pest any day. I feel bad for Texas. We still need rain here, It got pretty bad for awhile but we got some rain finaly.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
One positive thing about this extreme drought, I have not seen an insect in months.
Member Since: 25 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
I live in Fort Lauderdale Beach and my thought is that Emily will continue to regenerate through out the night and start moving in a northwesterly direction. She may become a medium tropical storm (50-60 mph)and will get close enough to the east coast of Florida to give us plenty of rain possibly tropical storm winds or at least gusts. If she remains stationary for a longer time then my thought is she will move more north than west and be more of a threat to the NW Bahamas late Sat and Sunday before heading NE out to sea.
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Quoting padirescu:


Troll or not is irrelevant based on your reasoning behind being a troll. Simply because someone misspells a word does not make them a troll especially if they represent themselves as a foreigner. As someone who just jumped on to look at the latest chatter about the remnants of Emily, I took exception to your reasoning simply based on the fact that a non-English word of origin was misspelled.

If I reacted to quickly based on what I saw then shame on me for an apparent misinterpretation but I find there is a lot of ignorance and hypocrisy out there regarding the fact that English isn't necessarily the universal language across all cultures.

You missed the post where I explained my other reasoning and comments, I suppose? I import from China. The broken English, when it is even apparent in emails and other correspondence is not television style broken English. these were what raised my suspicions as well as his not knowing how to spell Shanghai which is still a good reason to me. He is using the internet, isn't he? I hardly am ignorant nor am I being hypocritical for pointing these things out.
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Be Right Back,
Doing weekly luandry...
:P
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Quoting nymore:
KP index of 7 may go to 8 a lot of you people may be able to see the aurora or northern lights. go the the geophysical institute click on the interpreting the aurora then click select a view then select north america and look at kp 7 and see if you will be able to see them. with the index this high it should be quite a show
Thanks for the heads up, I don't think I will get to see it though since I live in FL:(...How is everyone tonight?
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Quoting jeebsa:
Sitting out back this evening. The mosquitos are so bad I think I just O.D. on Deet. Nice east wind but not enough to ground these pest.
One positive thing about this extreme drought, I have not seen an insect in months.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Or use the Jessica picture again. ;)


I liked the Jessica picture! ;)
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1296. Mucinex
Lol. 00z BAMD wants to share with everyone.
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1293. robj144
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,
have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...


Is a Ph. D. required to work at either place?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Stormwatcher,
thank you, have really put thought into my studies in the tropics...
I can tell you one thing, at your very young age you could outdo our local Met by 100%..StormPetrol, what do you think ?
Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Along sat loop lines (wv loop), the dry air issue present earlier today is retreating as well and it is really moistening up so that is not an issue.....I think it is going to boil down to how well she stacks up tomorrow and wind sheer issues.

WV loop.

Link
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Well.....I feel so old....but never too old to learn, I say :)
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Quoting JupiterFL:
Every single year the wolf in sheeps clothing routine? Really? Can't you think of something else. You didn't even bother to make your avatar some really hot chinese girl. Getting lazy I guess.


Or use the Jessica picture again. ;)
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Cloud tops have warmed the past couple of hours, probably due to some effects from d-min and just not having a solid closed low.

Some small convective flare-ups can be seen popping back up in spots. D-max will probably help later tonight:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Oh come on. It was a troll. And apparently a good one because he got the board into a frenzy about it which is exactly what a good troll can do.


Troll or not is irrelevant based on your reasoning behind being a troll. Simply because someone misspells a word does not make them a troll especially if they represent themselves as a foreigner. As someone who just jumped on to look at the latest chatter about the remnants of Emily, I took exception to your reasoning simply based on the fact that a non-English word of origin was misspelled.

If I reacted to quickly based on what I saw then shame on me for an apparent misinterpretation but I find there is a lot of ignorance and hypocrisy out there regarding the fact that English isn't necessarily the universal language across all cultures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stormwatcher,
thank you, have really put thought into my studies in the tropics...
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Time for some coconut cream pie, small glass of milk and a cup of coffee.

Hey Aqua!

Whats for breakfast? I may need to get up early if it is going to be as good as those blueberry muffins you had a few weeks ago.
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Every single year the wolf in sheeps clothing routine? Really? Can't you think of something else. You didn't even bother to make your avatar some really hot chinese girl. Getting lazy I guess.
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1283. emcf30
Quoting P451:
There are a lot of people 30 and older on this blog. Trust that.


Very true, I was born in the late 50s
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Pat, you my friend have been in this blog along with many others on here through thick and thin. from Major hurricanes hitting the US, to dormant hurricane seasons, through all of my time that ive lurked in this Blog(2006-2007).
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1281. jeebsa
Sitting out back this evening. The mosquitos are so bad I think I just O.D. on Deet. Nice east wind but not enough to ground these pest.
Member Since: 25 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
Quoting MississippiWx:


I know...lol. Did I quote you? Apologies if I did!


don't worry. you did not quote me but looks like the comment that weatherjr wrote was mine and I just want to clarify that.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


There have been smaller vorts rotating around the periphery all day. Still not a concentrated area, although 850mb vort is better:



Does look like it has concentrated just a tad more from earlier tho.
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22.6N/77W is the place to watch "I think"
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,
have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...
Impressive.
Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


However, it is the area I just mentioned.


There have been smaller vorts rotating around the periphery all day. Still not a concentrated area, although 850mb vort is better:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jrweatherman,
glad you have a dream to improve an organization that needs some work(LOL)!

If i were to get in a hurricane forecasting job a would pinpoint toward a NHC job more than a weather channel

Have already looked into CSU,
have been commended by Duke university(NC) to take a pre-SAT, i denied it though, i have gotten a commended performance on all my state testings last year... just want to be treated normally... looking into Universities(for the future) and pinpointing some colleges that i would like to look into...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1274. Patrap
Improving Dvorak

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
@ 51, I'm just a kid.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's no wonder that it's too weak at those coordinates because there is nothing there in the way of convection.


However, it is the area I just mentioned.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Latest coordinates were at 22.8N 77.2W, or right in the center of the convection.


Yeah, I got that, thanks. Probably just a vort within the low.
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Quoting padirescu:


Not if they're use to spelling it in Chinese!!! I love the ignorance of some people who think that someone who lives in a different country, with a different language than English, should somehow know exactly how to spell the English translation of words in their language. Oh and let's not mention the possibility of a typo!

Case in point... Link

Even with "English" speaking nationalities, spellings can be slightly skewed.

Ok, rant over... Back to watching the remnants of Emily.


Oh come on. It was a troll. And apparently a good one because he got the board into a frenzy about it which is exactly what a good troll can do.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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