Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:54 GMT le 05 août 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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have fun everyone... i'll be back later...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.


Emily's Baby
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You can't link an image directly from your PC, it has to be on the internet somewhere. See 798
that explains it.. thank you..
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Things have calmed down quite a bit with wave Emily limping towards the north. We have a clean board all the way to Africa and as I have been predicting a couple of weeks of quiet tropics. Who knows, maybe our hot high will continue to steer and shear systems away.
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how about emily rose(from that horror movie)
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18z GFS 84 hours...

Consistently developing a very vigorous tropical wave in 48-72 hours. Would be nice to have support from the ECMWF.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


MH09, where is ex-Emily heading?
No idea. Based on satellite imagery, the BAMM suite has a pretty good chance of verifying, but I seriously have no idea lol.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.



EEEEeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
did it work?


You can't link an image directly from your PC, it has to be on the internet somewhere. See 798
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807. ackee
I see both the GFS and ECMWF is showing CV system does seem like the HIGH is weaking may be goods news guess we see
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Please lay off the youtube posts. It messes up the page.
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.



HellEm
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
did it work?

when you have an image up right click on it and select copy image location. then on here click image then right click and paste the image location.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks more than elongation...she has duel vorticies. The NHC wouldn't classify a system in that shape.


Yeah, but that northern one will most likely shed away from the system and die or rotate around a common center until it's absorbed.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
i feel like an old fart asking... but how to you post a picture?


Depends on if you're using Firefox, Safari, Google Chrome or IE, it can be slightly different, I personally like google chrome! basically right click on pic, then left click copy url image, then go back wunderground, click image and paste in box that comes up and you're all set!
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799. afj3
Anybody see something spinning across the Atlantic on the GFS?
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.


Nightmare on Emily Street
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Quoting midnightstorm:
Comparing "cost" of Hurricane Katrina and Andrew
is not only insulting, but inaccurate. Katrina took
more then "buildings and things" away. In fact she is
still taking things away, families are still seperated,
my only grandchild, that I raised is in another state!
Katrina is the storm that keeps on taking. Andrew did
damage, and caused deaths, Katrina took over ,1.000
lives, and the water stayed in houses(some over 8ft)
for weeks! Andrew was a catastrophe,Katrina was a
tragedy that still continues after 6 years.The real
cost in in human suffering, which I know too well.


I am not comparing the costs.. Im saying and what i am saying is true...

Katrina was not as bad as a Hurricane as Andrew...
Katrina made landfall as a CAT 3... Andrew a CAT 5...
Andrew was a small compact storm...

If Andrew had made landfall 15-20 miles north and had a wider wind-field... then the damage would excede 300 Billon Dollars.

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Quoting FSUstormnut:
did it work?
Nope
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Quoting snow2fire:
Can someone tell me how to undo ignoring someone... if I don't remember the User name?


Attempt to ignore a random person. That will take you to your list. Delete the random person's name and the name you want to un-ignore. Then click Update.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks more than elongation...she has duel vorticies. The NHC wouldn't classify a system in that shape.


MH09, where is ex-Emily heading?
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did it work?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Vorticity is still elongated and this needs to change to help in organization. That has also been one of Emily's many problems throughout her life.

Looks more than elongation...she has duel vorticies. The NHC wouldn't classify a system in that shape.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting FSUstormnut:
i feel like an old fart asking... but how to you post a picture?


ITS MY SECRET! Jk

1. Go to an image that you want to post on the blog
2. Right Click on the Image... and go to properties... copy the properties...
3.Delete the Http:// in the image box.. and post the properties into the box and click ok.
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Can someone tell me how to undo ignoring someone... if I don't remember the User name?
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Quoting FromMy11YearOldSon:
We need a name for this storm. We had Don of the Dead, give us something for Emily all of you creative folk.


Emilives?
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Quoting P451:
It would seem fairly obvious it's trying to get it's act together. How far it gets is tough to call - as it always has been with this system.

It appeared to me in the last frames of visible and RGB that the center analyzed between Cuba and Andros had been pulled under the area of expanding convection.

That would of course signal organization.

Here's the obs in the region:







If she goes for Florida or rides up the east coast of Florida I don't see any kind of dangerous situation unfolding, again sans flooding rains. I just haven't seen a reason to change that opinion for days now.





If she were to find her way westward into the Gulf I guess that's a different story. I haven't really been watching the past two days so I don't have an opinion on that.



Who knows what this thing will do! Although the ridges are supposed to bridge they still have her moving NE and out.

SW NORTH ATLC...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND SW TO 27N70W IS DENTED BY
LOW PRES DISTURBANCE...REMNANTS OF EMILY...OVER BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND SAT. LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUN...DRIFTS
N-NE OUT OF AREA WITH STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT ON E
QUADRANT OF CENTER ALONG WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS IN SQUALLS.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN AND EMILY COULD RESURRECT AGAIN BEFORE IT
MOVE OUT OF SW N ATLC ZONE. ALL INTERESTS IN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR REMNANTS OF EMILY THROUGH
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS W AND MERGES WITH GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRES INTO ELONGATED E-W RIDGE.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Am i on your ignore list? :(


621. MeterologyStudent56 8:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2011 +0

Quoting K8eCane:



What! Shes back?

"Do you see the banding? Look at the Radar.... Now look to the Southeast of the "Eye" (Whole in convection, possible LLC)... Do you see the banding?"

Action: Quote | Modify Comment



No i dont have anyone on ignore LOL I just have to check in between chores etc...i usually cant sit down to it til later
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i feel like an old fart asking... but how to you post a picture?
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colder cloud tops converging.

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Quoting stormpetrol:


Waterspout Seven Mile beach Grand Cayman at 12:30pm today


Oh man I wish I were there. One of the draw back about moving here is that I am too far from the ocean. :(
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I cant wait for the next model runs... there going to be really intresting... who's with me?
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just in case anyone missed the update
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Quoting jonelu:
Thats an awesome pic!


It is you can read about it in the link I posted, I personally never seen this one, but I've seen many many in my day, in fact in Oct 1990 My dad & I got caught in bad one just offshore in my boat, when we got ashore my boat was loaded with ice/hail I guess, since then I never went boating much!!Link
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DMAX should help spin her up and get upgraded since its so close to land imo..on WV u can see the the moisture expanding on all sides... starting to be alot more t'storms forming are the area trying to come together... 77.4w 22.4n seems to me about where the center would be or would form later tonight
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Quoting P451:


I propose a new one: Is Emily the remnants of Karen finally re-organized after several hundred trips around the globe?

I believe it is. Who concurs?




Lol The Return Of Karen
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Winds out of the SW South Sound, Grand Cayman


Matches up well with visible satellite.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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