Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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figgering her,she might just turn around and go back to africa
You cant go around just saying just saying just like that. Saying just saying is like just saying nothing.
(feel free to add your own punctuation, if you like....)
O I hope not..we got 7-9 weeks of tuff Invest to cover
Kinda like IMO... just sayin', thats IMO
And I raise you a LOL.
11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 27.4N 78.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
What have you done with those plans?
No, usually it's boring.
So it is written, so it shall be done.
typhoonfury
It was indeed a wet one, still drying my kit out! RT @wunderground: RT @japantimes: Okinawa gets record typhoon rain http://ow.ly/5WQu6
22 minutes ago
I see the low, still there, meandering. Steering at the surface is weak.... Just Sayin'
She won't be going North with her pal on the coast that is for sure.
Emily is going to out sea by the way!
(..just saying)
25.6n78.1w, 26.4n78.2w, 27.1n78.2w are now the most recent positions
TropicalDepressionEmily's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 0.0degrees(N)
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Copy&paste 22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, 24.6n77.9w-25.6n78.1w, 25.6n78.1w-26.4n78.2w, 26.4n78.2w-27.1n78.2w, pbi, fpo, ilm, 26.4n78.2w-33.913n78.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.Emily was headed toward passage over OakIsland,SouthCarolina ~2days8hours from now
The previous mapping (for 6pmGMT)
watch this
_________________________________
careful
Sorry, you are correct, pott. It is just like a strong emotion, you know. It's a feeling you feel, when you feel a feeling your never felt before.
The mood is right, but for a the duration of a Hurricane you really need a Russian like Shostakovich's 10th. Especially the second movement. This has Major Hurricane written all over.
You can tell me.
I wont tell her.....
I thought Glinda was supposed to arrive by now.
Are the munchkins screaming yet?
It looks like Tropical Mess Emily has been upgraded to TD Emily and she appears to have stalled over the Gulf Stream which is nice and warm and conducive for tropical weather development.
With that being said the trade winds seem to be coming from the west which should help drive Emily to the East; but there is a high on the West Coast of Florida which is keeping Emily off the coast of Florida and not allowing Palm Beach to get any rain.
If this was an actual Tropical Storm, I might be able to ascertain some direction that this system would like to trek towards; but as it stands I have no idea where this system is headed or whether it is just going to collapse. Anyone have an educated guess on what is going to happen next with this storm:
SSW wind at west end
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =SPGF1
I never felt a feeling I couldnt feel that I felt before.
(?)
...just sayin
Not sure where it comes from, but Ems seems to be a nickname for Emily. I've heard people call my daughter that.
you bought a guitar to punish ya Ma,,
You dint like schul,,ya know ya nobody's phoool..
LOL, She is waiting on Franklin..apparently he cant make up his mind where he wants to go..
Night, ya'll... I'll likely check in latah to see how Em is farin'...
"EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION."
That's like saying "I have a monstrous and ferocious kitty cat".
Wouldn't you like to be Comfortably Numb during the storm?
ROFL
please esplain to the dummy who hasnt even taken met90
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