Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:43 GMT le 09 août 2011 +20
According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela
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952. hurricane23 12:57 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Should more than likely recurve.

The other African wave could be a different story.



Hmmm...Dont bet on it. The overall pattern still will make it very difficult for these waves to approach the U.S. 06z GFS recurves both.
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954. Stormchaser2007 12:58 GMT le 10 août 2011    
12z Suite

Could see something similar to Hurricane Bill.
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955. ncstorm 12:58 GMT le 10 août 2011    


Bermuda..
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957. blsealevel 12:59 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ncstorm:
I posted this last night but wanted to post again..
From Allan Huffman

A general trough in the means looks to persistent for at least the next couple of weeks. If the trough axis sets up along the Appalachians or a bit west, this could become a dangerous pattern for any hurricanes that would make it to 70W below 25N.


Yep
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958. hydrus 13:00 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ncstorm:
I posted this last night but wanted to post again..
From Allan Huffman

A general trough in the means looks to persistent for at least the next couple of weeks. If the trough axis sets up along the Appalachians or a bit west, this could become a dangerous pattern for any hurricanes that would make it to 70W below 25N.
I mentioned the same thing two days ago. If the Bermuda High strengthens to a certain point, trough will be situated further west.
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960. presslord 13:01 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

You're right. What a bunch of "idiots" and "dorks". Just because they have advanced degrees in meteorology and atmospheric physics, not to mention sometimes decades of professional experience in studying tropical weather in detail, doesn't mean they're any better at this stuff than, say, your average high school-aged troll on an internet forum.


everything I need to know...I learned from Art Bell and George Noory...
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961. prcane4you 13:05 GMT le 10 août 2011    
recurve or not recurve.everyone stand by.its just the beginning.
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962. MahFL 13:06 GMT le 10 août 2011    
I bet someone at the NHC is saying " I can't believe I did that.", and all his co-workers are having a good laugh.
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963. trHUrrIXC5MMX 13:06 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Probably Gert, Franklin to the left


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964. blsealevel 13:06 GMT le 10 août 2011    
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965. Stormchaser2007 13:07 GMT le 10 août 2011    
OLR filtered evolution.

After mid-August the game changes both in terms of activity and overall pattern progression.

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967. hydrus 13:07 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ncstorm:


Bermuda..
Here is the unusual WSW storm hitting Cuba..Link
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968. zoomiami 13:07 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Orca!

I'm tired of the green blobs -- the dogs want rain boots...
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969. Neapolitan 13:07 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It is entertaining. Thus the beauty of our society. Take it for what it is.

I suppose to some people, watching baby seals being clubbed is also "entertaining." Only the truly deranged would see the "beauty" in that, too.

I realize a certain segment of America has accepted it as an article of faith that all of science, and those who practice it, are evil/stupid/blind/corrupt. It's understandable that they feel that way: the truths those scientists are telling is scary to them and their narrow world view. But while it's understandable, it's not forgivable. And I'll defend that.
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970. trHUrrIXC5MMX 13:08 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:


may I get the link for that?
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972. BobinTampa 13:09 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting presslord:


everything I need to know...I learned from Art Bell and George Noory...



Nothing like driving across South Dakota in the dead of night listening to Art Bell.

The best part about him is I couldn't really tell whether he believed all that crap or if he was just giving nutjobs a forum to display their nutjobiness.


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975. presslord 13:10 GMT le 10 août 2011    
the only thing new in the world is the history ya don't knowLink
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976. GTcooliebai 13:11 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
hydrus,
that system riding up the east coast on this run is not a TC, though it appears to get close, though your right about the other two...
the system that is supposedly going to form soon off the east coast, is somthing to watch, though no landfall, just a miss...
got a feeling many storms this year are gonna ride up the coast this year(Pull an EARL all season) and a few other home grown storms will make landfalls on CONUS, though not very strong likely...
I think in terms of track an avg. between '95 and '99 is in the makings...a few recurves near Bermuda, East Coast Riders, and the ones that form in the western Caribbean moves into Central America and can make it as far north as south Texas (Brownsville area) and a track towards the west coast of FL.
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977. hydrus 13:13 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


may I get the link for that?
Tell me what link you want and I will get it.
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979. ProgressivePulse 13:14 GMT le 10 août 2011    
A return to La Nina would favor more re-curves with a more eastward displaced Bermuda/Azores high. It would also open up the Eastern seaboard more for a hit compared to neutral. Furthermore, I'm not so sure that we've ever really broken into a true Neutral pattern.
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980. hydrus 13:14 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting FLdewey:
*cough *cough FISH! *cough

So The weather peeps say 60% chance of precip today... REALLY going out on a limb with that forecast.

Tampa getting nailed again.
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981. Minnemike 13:14 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It is entertaining. Thus the beauty of our society. Take it for what it is.
i will... poof (long time coming)
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982. NICycloneChaser 13:15 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting MahFL:
I bet someone at the NHC is saying " I can't believe I did that.", and all his co-workers are having a good laugh.


I think they should just call every disturbance this year 'the remnants of Emily'. We all know she's the ringleader anyway.
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983. trHUrrIXC5MMX 13:15 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
Tell me what link you want and I will get it.


The link for that pic

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985. hydrus 13:15 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
A return to La Nina would favor more re-curves with a more eastward displaced Bermuda/Azores high. It would also open up the Eastern seaboard more for a hit compared to neutral. Furthermore, I'm not so sure that we've ever really broken into a true Neutral pattern.
I agree, but dont we get a lot of westward moving storms during the La-Nina also?
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988. blsealevel 13:16 GMT le 10 août 2011    

Loop de Loop this is pushing the dry air out the way
looks like the E Atl. spin might take advantage of her

Link
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989. hydrus 13:18 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Link
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


The link for that pic

Here ya go....Her is another..Link
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990. Neapolitan 13:18 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting presslord:
the only thing new in the world is the history ya don't knowLink

Roger that. There are still those now--some in the United States Congress--who would doubtless like to see a return to a happier Galilean time when scientists could be put on trial for daring to speak out against the Establishment. To such people, the widespread "I Don't Want To Know Anything" institutionalized ignorance of the Dark Ages holds a certain warped fascination and attraction. Sad, really...
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991. hydrus 13:18 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Link
Quoting hydrus:
Link Here ya go....Her is another..Link
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992. trHUrrIXC5MMX 13:18 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
Link Here ya go....Her is another..Link


thanks there
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993. Patrap 13:19 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Somewhere a Dog is Barking in a Avatar..




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994. Jedkins01 13:20 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Over 2 inches of rain again this morning! Even though they are fast moving, the cell that moved through was heavy enough and large enough to dump over 2 inches in 25 minutes. It also has been accompanied with very gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and lots of powerful lightning strikes.

Over 7.50 now for August already, heck yeah.
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995. HCW 13:22 GMT le 10 août 2011    
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996. LillyMyrrh 13:22 GMT le 10 août 2011    
I'm going to ask what may seem a stupid question. I've tried to google it, but it redirects right back to this blog. What is the PLANFALF model? It seems to exist only in the demented mind of some blogger.
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997. hydrus 13:23 GMT le 10 août 2011    
LinkThe UKMET shows Bermuda High building and moving west..
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998. ProgressivePulse 13:24 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
I agree, but dont we get a lot of westward moving storms during the La-Nina also?



Yes sir.

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999. Stormchaser2007 13:24 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
A return to La Nina would favor more re-curves with a more eastward displaced Bermuda/Azores high. It would also open up the Eastern seaboard more for a hit compared to neutral. Furthermore, I'm not so sure that we've ever really broken into a true Neutral pattern.


Nino 3.4 continues to cool.

Now AOA -.5 C which is the threshold for a weak La Nina. We should stay relatively steady with some slight cooling continuing over the next few months. Could be another long-duration season like 2010.

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1000. GTcooliebai 13:24 GMT le 10 août 2011    
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
919 AM EDT WED AUG 10

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...SAINT
PETERSBURG...SEMINOLE...PINELLAS PARK


* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 919 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 240 AND 250.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

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1001. Stormchaser2007 13:25 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting LillyMyrrh:
I'm going to ask what may seem a stupid question. I've tried to google it, but it redirects right back to this blog. What is the PLANFALF model? It seems to exist only in the demented mind of some blogger.


It's fake.

Made up by some troll.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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