Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:43 GMT le 09 août 2011 +20
According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 1151 - 1201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1152. overwash12 15:27 GMT le 10 août 2011    
I don't ever want to hear about a PRO-AGW activist ever dying from Hypothermia in the winter,now that would be IRONIC!!!!
Member Since: 24 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049
1154. AussieStorm 15:27 GMT le 10 août 2011    
1115. tropicfreak 3:04 PM GMT on August 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?



I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
Quoting tropicfreak:


I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?

You should forward them to admin.
Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13255
1155. reedzone 15:28 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting 69Viking:


Not exactly, says it's likely but not a definite and that the East coast could be at risk. With a storm that far East it's way to early to make a call about where it might or might not go.


+10 .. Exactly, it's too early to tell and plus.. Remember Hurricane Earl last year.. Models had Earl going near Bermuda to the east... Then the shifts occured.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
1156. tropicfreak 15:28 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kwgirl:
You know you can ignore the person and don't open any e-mail from them. Simple solution. BTW Good Morning everyone:)


He didn't really write anything, he wrote that nasty comment in the title, and when I look at NEW MAIL, how would I know that's Jason or not.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564
1157. tropicfreak 15:29 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting AussieStorm:
1115. tropicfreak 3:04 PM GMT on August 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh Wow!A bad inbox mail I just got from jason...anyone get one too?



I did too txhurricanedude, yesterday, did it contain some foul language?
You should forward them to admin.



Thanks!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564
1158. troy1993 15:29 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Hey bloggers I am getting to the point where I want to have Levi32 as our primary tropical weather blogger. I am getting sick of all the trolling on here and it is not fair to the people on here like myself who want to learn about tropical weather. Levi is extremely dedicated to tropical meteorology and I want to share my appreciation with him without having to worry about any stupidity from people like Jason.
Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
1159. Levi32 15:29 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kshipre1:
great update always Levi. so, the 8-15 day period of the High setting up you talked about, what do you see after that?

I mean from about mid August till end of September, do you see a consistent strong ridge/Bermuda High setting up in the WATL steering storms toward the SE CONUS?

Thanks!


Forecasting such patterns out to 4 weeks is very difficult. However, we have seen so far this season that west Atlantic troughs haven't liked to hang around too long before leaving, and as a result, we have already had one landfall on the U.S. and another storm that got within 100 miles of the coast. If the SE Canada ridging is finally showing up as the ensembles are currently forecasting, then the pattern may finally be going with the analogs that foretold this. If it is, then the dangerous pattern that we warned about before the season began may be ready to entrench itself, but we will just have to see. We're going to deal with the pattern on a storm-by-storm basis, as always. The average pattern over a few weeks does not necessarily mean that a random hurricane will encounter that same pattern on a daily time scale.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439
1160. 69Viking 15:29 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting reedzone:
"Writing on the wall" Yep, big ridge, weak trough.. should easily pass Bermuda :)


Not only are the troughs week they are pretty far North hanging out in Canada and then exiting off to the NE pretty quick allowing the High to build back in. 92L might start to go North but then could easily get pushed back West into the East coast, way to early right now to call it a fish storm IMO.
Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
1161. SouthDadeFish 15:30 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Vorticity with 92L still seems elongated, although it does have quite a nice spin with it and is showing up at the 500mb levels as well.

Link

TPW loops show a large moisture envelope that is running into a large pocket of dry air.

Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2408
1162. Matt74 15:30 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.
Member Since: 21 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1164. scott39 15:31 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 10th, with Video
Good Info, thanks Levi.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207
1168. jeffs713 15:32 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kwgirl:
You know you can ignore the person and don't open any e-mail from them. Simple solution. BTW Good Morning everyone:)

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.
Member Since: 3 août 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
1169. jeffs713 15:33 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.

Its all the same person who is blatantly trying to evade ignore lists.
Member Since: 3 août 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
1170. reedzone 15:33 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting P451:
Early:




Late (GFS Ensembles):





Yesterday/Emily:



Looks a heck alot like Earls first runs, don't it? :P

Sorry but not calling this a fish until I see a recurve. The pattern shows blocking, and weak troughs..

Off to work, won't be back till tonight, have a nice day P451 and everyone..
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
1172. 69Viking 15:34 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting troy1993:
Hey bloggers I am getting to the point where I want to have Levi32 as our primary tropical weather blogger. I am getting sick of all the trolling on here and it is not fair to the people on here like myself who want to learn about tropical weather. Levi is extremely dedicated to tropical meteorology and I want to share my appreciation with him without having to worry about any stupidity from people like Jason.


Then if I were you I'd start using the ignore feature to filter on the ones who are starting the trouble. I'm with you, I just want to read the opinions of people who have a good understanding of the tropics and share my opinions with them and learn. The other crap needs to go.
Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
1175. kshipre1 15:35 GMT le 10 août 2011    
ok, thanks Levi. man, I tell ya, you are amazing. Your future in meteorology is super bright. you belong at the NHC man!

you're a smart guy!
Member Since: 12 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1177. jeffs713 15:36 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Believe it or not I think I have 25 or more jason handles geez and possibly climbing.

I believe it. He's almost as bad as a few of our other notorious people on here, as far as being irritating goes.
Member Since: 3 août 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
1179. Twinkster 15:37 GMT le 10 août 2011    
First of all I am not sold on AGW. I am however sold on Anthropogenic Climate change. Yes temperatures have gotten warmer in the northern hemisphere, however, there are places in the southern hemisphere that have actually gotten much cooler.

Also anyone who is arguing against AGW please don't use the omg it's such a cold winter. The dynamics of a possible AGW change atmospheric conditions much more than just temperature it leads to more severe weather and that includes worse winter weather include it being colder.


For many reasons I believe in climate change in general more than global warming. The climate has continually changed in the world for billions of years and we only have 150 years of exact data and only 60 years of accurate worldwide data since satellites have given us accurate worldwide readings.

My take is to practice the precautionary principle. Ok although I don't believe in global warming per se I do believe we should be moving to greener renewable energy that doesn't pollute our environment.


Have a good day and can we please get back to talking about the tropics
Member Since: 7 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932
1181. tropicfreak 15:37 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting jeffs713:

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.


I'm currently contacting admin about the situation with Jason.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564
1183. scott39 15:37 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


Forecasting such patterns out to 4 weeks is very difficult. However, we have seen so far this season that west Atlantic troughs haven't liked to hang around too long before leaving, and as a result, we have already had one landfall on the U.S. and another storm that got within 100 miles of the coast. If the SE Canada ridging is finally showing up as the ensembles are currently forecasting, then the pattern may finally be going with the analogs that foretold this. If it is, then the dangerous pattern that we warned about before the season began may be ready to entrench itself, but we will just have to see. We're going to deal with the pattern on a storm-by-storm basis, as always. The average pattern over a few weeks does not necessarily mean that a random hurricane will encounter that same pattern on a daily time scale.
Do Cape Verde TCs generally have to form further S or stay weak, to make it into the GOM?
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207
1184. Levi32 15:37 GMT le 10 août 2011    
GFS still shows a cooler shot for the central-eastern U.S. during the next two weeks. Such event is good news for the folks that are tired of the heat wave, but it can also set off the hurricane season. We may see that manifested by our 1-2 wave punch that is beginning its journey across the Atlantic.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439
1185. stillwaiting 15:37 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting reedzone:
Uhh Hellooo??? It's August, not October.. no strong trough.. Models will back west just like they did with Earl. GFS is glorious in strengthening troughs, as well as some of the BAMM models.. Emily didn't recurve well east of the islands.
,bamm parameters dont take into account the stregth of troughs and highs it uses the beta affect and differentbstregth of storms i do believe
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1186. Levi32 15:38 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting scott39:
Do Cape Verde TCs generally have to form further S or stay weak, to make it into the GOM?


Yes. In fact, no storm that formed within 50 miles of 92L's current coordinates ever made it into the Gulf of Mexico. Of course 92L is not a storm yet, but the point is still fairly clear.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439
1187. outofdablue 15:38 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.


this is a case of Jason getting hacked. The real Jason always posts his pics. Also to the rest of you out there ... this is a blog not a club...you don't get to chose your members. blog and let blog.
Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
1189. Matt74 15:39 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting jeffs713:

Its all the same person who is blatantly trying to evade ignore lists.
Thanks. I thought i remembered some guys on here saying he was "slow" mentaly, but i guess thats not the case. H was just playing the part. Thanks for the info and i won't mention him anymore.
Member Since: 21 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1190. Levi32 15:40 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting stillwaiting:
,bamm parameters dont take into account the stregth of troughs and highs it uses the beta affect and differentbstregth of storms i do believe


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439
1191. kshipre1 15:40 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!
Member Since: 12 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1192. kwgirl 15:41 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting jeffs713:

Yes, but what about when the user adds a new handle every few days? Jason and all of his aliases already occupy a solid 15 slots on my ignore list. I'm just to the point of reporting each one, minusing it, then clicking on ignore user.
I understand what everyone is saying. Hopefully Admin's IT department can identify the IP address and totally block it. Not that I know how to do that!LOL
Member Since: 28 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530
1193. tropicfreak 15:42 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Just sent the message to the admin!!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564
1195. ElConando 15:42 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting oreodogsghost:


Is this the same Heartland Institute that said cigarette smoke is okey dokey? You betcha - of course, that was after they got millions from Phillip Morris



Correct and guess who's paying em in Goldified Oil!!!
Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703
1196. ncstorm 15:42 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:
GFS still shows a cooler shot for the central-eastern U.S. during the next two weeks. Such event is good news for the folks that are tired of the heat wave, but it can also set off the hurricane season. We may see that manifested by our 1-2 wave punch that is beginning its journey across the Atlantic.



Yes the humidity has left the eastern US..we are in the 90's here today but low humidity..I will take that anyday compared to what we have been experiencing..
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8311
1197. SouthDadeFish 15:43 GMT le 10 août 2011    
92L is still about a week away from any landfall in the U.S. We all know how large the errors are for a five day forecast of a tropical cyclone, but now extrapolate those errors out to at least seven days and add on top of that this isn't even a tropical cyclone yet. Way too early to get worked up about such a long range forecast, and just remember Bermuda is out there too.
Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2408
1199. 7544 15:44 GMT le 10 août 2011    
morning everyone is that exemily making a turn back to the west in the north alt please say it aint so
Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5921
1200. SouthDadeFish 15:45 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
Levi have you seen the video by Michael Brennan from NHC talking about the different track guidance they use? I found it very informative, although it did get kind of long at one hour.
Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2408
1201. Levi32 15:45 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!


I assume you are asking about prerequisites. A meteorology major will take you through at least a little bit of just about everything dealing with meteorology. Standard prerequisites include math up through differential equations, and at least two semesters of physics. The programs usually require the usual core humanities and arts requirements as well.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

Viewing: 1151 - 1201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather
Clear
68 ° F
Ciel dégagé
Community Activity