Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:43 GMT le 09 août 2011 +20
According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela
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1201. Levi32 15:45 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!


I assume you are asking about prerequisites. A meteorology major will take you through at least a little bit of just about everything dealing with meteorology. Standard prerequisites include math up through differential equations, and at least two semesters of physics. The programs usually require the usual core humanities and arts requirements as well.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607
1202. Levi32 15:45 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi have you seen the video by Michael Brennan from NHC talking about the different track guidance they use? I found it very informative, although it did get kind of long at one hour.


No. Link me?
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607
1203. stillwaiting 15:45 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.
,thanks for the clarification mr levi!!!,i love learning about wx...
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1204. BiloxiIsle 15:46 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Most grownups on this blog will just hit the ignore button when someone is trolling, without telling everyone to ignore them or continue to feed the trolls. If you don't like Jason or whoever, just hit the ignore button and go about your business. When you discuss him, you are just helping to create the monster. I personally don't care if Jason has 500 handles, some of his maps are nice to see.
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1205. K8eCane 15:46 GMT le 10 août 2011    
levi thanks for pointing out the patterns. You make them clear and understandable.
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1206. 69Viking 15:46 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Adios everyone, going back to hunting forum land until 92L or something else gets closer, no need to stick around and hear the arguments about out to sea or not out to sea all day when nobody really knows yet!
Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2268
1207. mrsalagranny 15:46 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Good morning everyone.First I would like to say Great job Levi on your tidbit.You always help me understand the patterns.Second WOW last night was so nice,The temps were so cool and a nice breeze.Almost felt like fall of the year.Third:It looks like CV season is getting ready to take off full force.Just an opinion no proof to back it up except the two waves we have out there now that came from Africa.
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1208. mcluvincane 15:46 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes the trofs are pretty far north thats why the A/B high has been pushed south because of the trofs..these trofs like the last one came very far south...as time goes on they will be coming further south and keeping the A/B high very far south setting up a pattern for the caribbean to get very busy ..also 92 L is going to have to fight lots of dry air and probably will be sucked dry before it reaches 50 west...so 92L is going to have a tough road ahead so i would not start talking about a hurricane from this...its going to be another emily..



You sound so sure of yourself. One thing about the tropics you need to learn. Always expect the unexpected. Listen to Levi's analysis. You might learn a little bit about not assuring yourself on the track of a storm that hasn't even developed.
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1209. SouthDadeFish 15:48 GMT le 10 août 2011    
For anyone who has an hour of time, I highly recommend watching this video. It talks about each of the models the NHC uses, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and how the NHC uses consensus models in their forecasts.

Link

Just click on the video link on the page to watch.

Also more videos here including Intensity forecasts from the NHC.
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1211. islander101010 15:49 GMT le 10 août 2011    
cv waves are too close together that and dry air could keep them at bay to around the windwds
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1212. CybrTeddy 15:50 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Invest 92L and 2nd tropical wave a threat down the road 8/10/11

Blog update! Read for my opinion on the tropics as of right now, I hope you all enjoy!
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20640
1214. Levi32 15:52 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For anyone who has an hour of time, I highly recommend watching this video. It talks about each of the models the NHC uses, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and how the NHC uses consensus models in their forecasts.

Link


Awesome. Thanks :)
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607
1215. cwf1069 15:53 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Good morning wunderbloggers. Haven't you notice the new impostor yet, because there is one. The real Jason doesn't talk to much and always show maps on it.?
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1217. hcubed 15:58 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting oreodogsghost:


Is this the same Heartland Institute that said cigarette smoke is okey dokey? You betcha - of course, that was after they got millions from Phillip Morris


Went right past the data to trash the messenger, eh?

"...real-world data from NASA's Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into...computer models..."

True, they could have stated the message without all the "alarmist" labeling, but I thought that empirical science was based on OBSERVED facts.

"...The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by...computer models.

The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than...computer models had predicted.

Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than...computer models have predicted..."

Once again, OBSERVED facts. No matter who reported them.
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1218. hydrus 15:58 GMT le 10 août 2011    
The ECMWF is slow with 92L..
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1220. kshipre1 16:04 GMT le 10 août 2011    
thanks Levi! Yes, am talking about prerequisites and actual courses in the program

is it like a standard 4 year program? Or longer?
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1221. presslord 16:04 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Oh Aaaaaaaangela!!! 'bout time for a new entry.....
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407
1222. scooster67 16:05 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Matt74:
Can someone clue me in on this jason guy? Are they all the same person or what? Because some of his posts his grammar is horrible and other posts it's fine.
Quoting outofdablue:


this is a case of Jason getting hacked. The real Jason always posts his pics. Also to the rest of you out there ... this is a blog not a club...you don't get to chose your members. blog and let blog.
This is true. The real Jason is not as bad as the hacker. I am surprised He hasn't been on defending his self. He must have got a bann or something.
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1223. Levi32 16:06 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting kshipre1:
thanks Levi! Yes, am talking about prerequisites and actual courses in the program

is it like a standard 4 year program? Or longer?


4-year Bachelor's, which is standard. You would go to graduate school for a Masters or PhD.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607
1224. kshipre1 16:08 GMT le 10 août 2011    
ok, thanks. wow, that's a lot of schooling

reason I ask is because I am contemplating a career and field change.

I have a bachelor's in Corporate Finance and Accounting and am getting my MBA in Accounting

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1225. Grothar 16:10 GMT le 10 août 2011    


AND LINKLink
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1226. MrsBoomer 16:11 GMT le 10 août 2011    
GREAT tidbit today, Levi. I think I've had a knowledge breakthrough, thanks to you :)
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1228. ShenValleyFlyFish 16:12 GMT le 10 août 2011    
I log in to see what is going on and all I can find is the discussion of the blogging habits of other members and who is liked and not. If one were to add up the column inches dedicated to this vs the weather talk one can easily see that it is the talk about who is and isn't a troll rather than the trolls themselves which are clogging up the blog. Last I checked middle-schoolers were welcome, but this is getting ridiculous. There are + and - buttons. If you like something Levi or whoever says, give them a +. No comment needed. Same thing works the other way. Judging from the totals folks aren't using this feature. Why? Seems simple enough to me. Now I hope this post collects numerous - hits, because it has nothing to do with weather.
Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
1229. Stormchaser2007 16:16 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Just stopping by while I have internet access.

12z GFS is sending 9XL (African wave) farther south than the 6z run so far.

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1230. hydrus 16:17 GMT le 10 août 2011    
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1231. 69Viking 16:17 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I log in to see what is going on and all I can find is the discussion of the blogging habits of other members and who is liked and not. If one were to add up the column inches dedicated to this vs the weather talk one can easily see that it is the talk about who is and isn't a troll rather than the trolls themselves which are clogging up the blog. Last I checked middle-schoolers were welcome, but this is getting ridiculous. There are + and - buttons. If you like something Levi or whoever says, give them a +. No comment needed. Same thing works the other way. Judging from the totals folks aren't using this feature. Why? Seems simple enough to me. Now I hope this post collects numerous - hits, because it has nothing to do with weather.


Thankfully schools start back up right about the same time the season really kicks in! In another couple of weeks this blog should be a lot more civil and dedicated to the tropics!
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1232. hydrus 16:19 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just stopping by while I have internet access.

12z GFS is sending 9XL (African wave) farther south than the 6z run so far.

I noticed that. One model I ran actually showed a WSW movement.
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1233. weaverwxman 16:19 GMT le 10 août 2011    
The kids still will have access at lunctime and on their phones ugggghh
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1234. cwf1069 16:20 GMT le 10 août 2011    
92L is moistening the path for the new wave to come and absorbing all the dry air for itself. . It could be very interesting for next weeks to come.
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1235. nrtiwlnvragn 16:20 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It incorporates the Beta Effect and the initial vertically-averaged steering. It does not dynamically forecast the steering pattern, but uses the current one.


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.
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1237. hydrus 16:22 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


AND LINKLink
Hello Gro...The waves are looking healthy this afternoon..
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1239. laguna2 16:22 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever") detailing the unprecedented severity of the current year's drought in Texas, http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2011/08/04/texas-drought- officially-the-worst-ever/

As I noted in a comment yesterday, for central, south and parts of east Texas, the current drought is the fifth year out of the last seven in which extreme to exceptional drought has been predominant.

I grew up along the lower Texas coast, and most of my family still lives there. I NEVER thought I would hope for a hurricane or strong TS, but one has to weigh what is worse. At this point, I think a tropical cyclone (hopefully not a major hurricane) is the lesser of the two evils. So forgive me for wish-casting a GOM storm and SOON!
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1240. ShenValleyFlyFish 16:23 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting 69Viking:


Thankfully schools start back up right about the same time the season really kicks in! In another couple of weeks this blog should be a lot more civil and dedicated to the tropics!
Don't quote the troll (me).
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1241. kshipre1 16:23 GMT le 10 août 2011    
agreed. that along with the pattern shift coming up in the next few weeks
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1242. Bielle 16:24 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting rv1pop:

I would love to comment on your emotional, and IMO irrational judgements, but to do so would probably get me banned. You are blasting MY "theology".
Back to lurking.


No religion, no politics, please.
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1243. SouthDadeFish 16:24 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.
I'm pretty sure they do not dynamically forecast a storm. They are simple statistical models. They have storms reacting to troughs because the follow the steering currents input from the GFS I believe. They do not forecast the dynamic interactions of the storm and its environment though. They just simply assume the storm has a vortex of a certain depth, whether it be shallow, medium, or deep, and have it follow those steering currents throughout the 120 hour forecast.
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1244. CybrTeddy 16:25 GMT le 10 août 2011    
12z GFS continues to show two systems by 126 hours or so, so far looks pretty similar to the 06z.
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1246. hydrus 16:25 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting cwf1069:
92L is moistening the path for the new wave to come and absorbing all the dry air for itself. . It could be very interesting for next weeks to come.
True..Plus a large moisture field will be moving off the African Continent too..And it is huge..
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1247. ShenValleyFlyFish 16:26 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Minnemike:
really admin? of all the stuff on here today, #1228 is the one that get's pulled for violating community standards?? seemed like an appropriate entry made at the right time (middle-schoolers taken offensively?).... point being, the blogging tools are highly valuable assets for maintaining blog sanity..
I hope admin didn't pull it and folks knocked it off the blog with - hits. That was the point. Again not weather related. hit -
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1248. Neapolitan 16:26 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting Minnemike:
really admin? of all the stuff on here today, #1228 is the one that get's pulled for violating community standards?? seemed like an appropriate entry made at the right time (middle-schoolers taken offensively?).... point being, the blogging tools are highly valuable assets for maintaining blog sanity..

Oh, it's not admin; when enough trolls decide to target a post, they can make that post disappear--one of the aspects of this site that is quite frustrating. Good material from solid posters can be censored by a handful of trolls, while their endless troll-related ramblings sit here forever for all the world to see. It's very disheartening at times. (Try saying something scientific in Dr. Rood's climate change blog, and the same thing will happen when the "skeptics" are out in force.)
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1249. Grothar 16:27 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro...The waves are looking healthy this afternoon..


They are looking better than me. At least they have circulation. How you doing, hydrus. Posted some good maps this morning. Still unsure of 92L. But I know pre-soon-to-be-possible-maybe 93L will be the one to watch. Check my blog yet?
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1250. CybrTeddy 16:28 GMT le 10 août 2011    
The pattern in place right now supports troughs off the east coast by the time 92L gets towards the US, it is very rare to get a storm already as far north as 92L is to strike the USA. Can't say for a fact it won't hit the USA, but based on previous storms in a similar location it doesn't seem too terribly likely IMO.
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1251. hydrus 16:28 GMT le 10 août 2011    
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It's about time admin cleaned this place up!
When things really start to fire up, the blog will be decontaminated...
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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