Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:43 GMT le 09 août 2011 +20
According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela
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102. Speeky 18:23 GMT le 09 août 2011    
So far this year we had many weather extremes. I wonder why hurricane season is not as extreme.

How many storms do you expect there will be in the Atlantic Hurricane season this year?
Member Since: 10 avril 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263
103. Neapolitan 18:24 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting summerland:


Oh, that's already happening. The West Texas desert is spreading east. There are towns northwest of San Antonio that are on the brink of losing their water supplies completely. The lakes have gone dry. Severe water restrictions have been in force for ages, but are of little use when there's no rain to refill the lakes and reservoirs.

At least around here, this year's crops are simply gone -- I've seen so many fields of two-foot high corn plants burned to a dead brown husk -- and produce prices at the grocery store are higher than I've ever seen them. I have to wonder how far away Dust Bowl conditions are -- quite a ways off, I hope, but it makes me wonder how much worse things were during that level of historic drought.

Correct. The predicted desertification process appears to be underway, though we won't know for sure for a few more years.
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104. OCF 18:25 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting PakaSurvivor:

Wild grasses turn brown and time to get the cardboard out and ride down the hills! Fun times growning up on California's Central Coast.

I've found that the satellite view that explains the most about California is on the views you get through the NHC site - specifically the Northeast Pacific water vapor view. And then, in the daytime, the visible view of the same thing. You know how East Pacific hurricanes behave? They can get very impressive for a while, and then the forecasts start talking about them entering a region of cooler waters and greater thermodynamic stability. And when the hurricane gets there, it decays and unwinds very, very quickly. That region of "cooler waters and greater thermodynamic stability" often shows up on the visible satellite as a vast sheet of stratus clouds.

That's our summertime weather in coastal California. On the WV view, you see a wide lane of (mid to upper level) dry air; on the visible view you see all that stratus, which can and often does blow ashore. The stereotypical summer forecast "late night and early morning fog and low clowds clearing to hazy afternoon sunshine.

There's a little blob of mid-level moisture on the WV satellite, possibly ex-Eugene, possibly headed for California. It doesn't look very impressive (which is to say that it doesn't look very wet) and I doubt anything will come of it.
Member Since: 10 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
105. gordydunnot 18:26 GMT le 09 août 2011    
There is a school of thought that thinks the atmosphere may become to turbulent for hurricanes to become so intense/vertically stacked. The earth tries to stabilize temp. differences. To me there is a lot of north/south action in the atmosphere especially upper atmosphere.How much this weights against the favorable factors I guess we shall see.Just my little opinion file it were you may.
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106. Neapolitan 18:26 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

Ehem. I think it is pretty clear that the current drought conditions in TX and the neighboring states are among the worst in history.

And it will only get worse, much worse. As long as trillions of tons of C02 is being pumped into the Earth's atmosphere per day, it is very hard to say whether or not things will ever get back to normal.

Trillions of tons per day? Not even close. Millions, yes--about 82 million metric tons a day. But not trillions.
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107. CybrTeddy 18:26 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Speeky:
So far this year we had many weather extremes. I wonder why hurricane season is not as extreme.

How many storms do you expect there will be in the Atlantic Hurricane season this year?


16, like CSU said. The reason we're not seeing an extreme hurricane season yet is the reason we didn't see it until mid-late August is the same reason 2010, 2007, 2004, ect didn't see the extreme seasons yet.. things don't get active until mid-August.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278
108. TropicalAnalystwx13 18:27 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Speeky:
So far this year we had many weather extremes. I wonder why hurricane season is not as extreme.

How many storms do you expect there will be in the Atlantic Hurricane season this year?


NOAA's latest update:

14-19 named storms
7-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347
110. summerland 18:27 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:


That is really saddening to read. Hopefully this upcoming La Nina won't pan out during the winter and Texas can have the benefit of more passing storms.


Sure hope so. A neutral La Niña and a cool, wet spring would be a godsend for the whole region.
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111. VAbeachhurricanes 18:27 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

Trillions of tons per day? Not even close. Millions, yes--about 82 million metric tons a day. But not trillions.


Can I get a link to that?
Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802
112. pottery 18:28 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

Cooling? If you think you are going to find any of that lying around, you might as well subscribe to the Glenn Beck 24 hour network, or simply leave Anthony Watts a rather substantial endorsement. Any of those would work. ;-)

The truth is--and has been documented by NASA and thousands of climate scientists and that the global is warming, and rapidly. And the global extremes that are occurring will only become that of, more extreme--larger intense hurricanes, more severe droughts, and paralyzing blizzards. Big Energy will do their finest to have you believe otherwise with their endless pro-money propaganda that the fossil fuel industry so finely represents. But I, choose to believe science, and also have a genuine interest in protecting the globe from harm others seem to want to impose.

Well!
That all sounds pretty Dire, if you ask me....
We HAVE to keep pumping CO2 into the sky because, er, well, we just HAVE to...
And anyway, those Londoners are doing their bit with that this week.
And with the IceCap retreating and the Tundra melting, we will be able to move our agriculture there, and graze Texas cattle on Greenland and all.

Of course, Texas will need a couple of people to stay there to keep the refineries running, and to train the Soldiers in how to fight in the deserts of the MidEast to protect the water pipes that flow from Lake Victoria to Israel. And stuff.

It's going to be just fine. Just fine. Dont worry, be Happy.
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113. wxgeek723 18:28 GMT le 09 août 2011    
We need another 2009, a mostly calm year in terms of weather extremes and natural disasters.
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114. TropicalAnalystwx13 18:29 GMT le 09 août 2011    
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115. blsealevel 18:30 GMT le 09 août 2011    
116. TropicalAnalystwx13 18:30 GMT le 09 août 2011    
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117. cirrocumulus 18:30 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sorry Dr M, but I need a favor from the blog.

How many of you can pull up my site. www.stormjunkie.com

If you can quote and respond with a yes or now it would be a huge help. Having some troubles with my hosting company.

Sorry again Dr M; and thanks.


It won't come up!
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118. pottery 18:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Speeky:
So far this year we had many weather extremes. I wonder why hurricane season is not as extreme.

How many storms do you expect there will be in the Atlantic Hurricane season this year?

An "Extreme" year is not only a year of MORE.
It can also be a year of much less.
Either on will have Extreme results.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712
119. VAbeachhurricanes 18:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting blsealevel:


This can't be good
Ok; so whats the bad news :)


well the good news is DOW didnt tank another 600 points today...
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120. caneswatch 18:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting wxgeek723:
We need another 2009, a mostly calm year in terms of weather extremes and natural disasters.


That would be nice, but after everything that's happened this year, it's anything but calm.
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121. Cotillion 18:33 GMT le 09 août 2011    
#112 - Unfortunately Pottery, not just Londoners now.
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122. CatfishJones 18:33 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

As long as trillions of tons of C02 is being pumped into the Earth's atmosphere per day, it is very hard to say whether or not things will ever get back to normal.


Personally, I feel agricultural practices and water redistribution have a more direct pin-point effect in the case of Texas.
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123. VAbeachhurricanes 18:34 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Really cool news for us science nerds.

Building Blocks of DNA Found in Meteorites from Space
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124. Neapolitan 18:35 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can I get a link to that?

Certainly:

Here

Also here

For 2008--the last year for which true and complete numbers are available--global CO2 emissions from the burning of coal, peat, oil, natural gas, and waste, plus bunker fuels, totalled 29,381,400,000 tonnes. That works out to 80,496,986 tonnes per day--and totals have risen substantially since then, with China alone contributing a huge amount.

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125. CybrTeddy 18:35 GMT le 09 août 2011    
12z ECMWF running.. 72 hours.
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126. pottery 18:36 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Cotillion:
#112 - Unfortunately Pottery, not just Londoners now.

Yeah. I see that.
Bad Stuff, Cot.

Problem is, how DO you deal with that Mindset??????
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127. Starwoman 18:37 GMT le 09 août 2011    
@ SJ: your site starts loading but " hangs up", doesn't load further. Can't access your site....
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128. bohonkweatherman 18:38 GMT le 09 août 2011    
If you research the 1950s drought in Texas and other states, only parts of Texas were in extreme drought for majority of that time or part of that period, the last year of the drought most of Texas was in extreme drought, it was not for the entire 6 or 7 year period though. I am sure the state has some rains during those 6 or 7 years and I am sure they had tropical rains also.
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129. hydrus 18:38 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:
Hopefully Texas isn't becoming an expansion of the desert.
Or another version of the 1930,s dust bowl.
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130. VAbeachhurricanes 18:38 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

Certainly:

Here

Also here

For 2008--the last year for which true and complete numbers are available--global CO2 emissions from the burning of Coal, peat, oil, natural gas, and waste, plus bunker fules, totalled 29,381,400,000 tonnes. That works out to 80,496,986 tonnes per day--and totals have risen substantially since then, with China alone contributing a huge amount to the total.



I think its sad to see the majority of the countries either have leveled out their releasing, and even reducing it, while china's is growing exponentially.
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133. VAbeachhurricanes 18:39 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

Certainly:

Here

Also here

For 2008--the last year for which true and complete numbers are available--global CO2 emissions from the burning of coal, peat, oil, natural gas, and waste, plus bunker fuels, totalled 29,381,400,000 tonnes. That works out to 80,496,986 tonnes per day--and totals have risen substantially since then, with China alone contributing a huge amount.



Oh and just so you know that second link didnt work for me.
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138. VAbeachhurricanes 18:45 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting NavarreMark:


Alot of good deals on oil & minin stocks right now.

The talk on the blog right now is almost making me into a wishcaster.

Almost.

Hope there are no landfalls this season.


Gas prices should drop by at least 40 cents by the end of the year <3
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139. CatfishJones 18:48 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

Trillions of tons per day? Not even close. Millions, yes--about 82 million metric tons a day. But not trillions.


Do you think there is an exponential factor to combining the carbon output with ridiculous deforestation? Point being, the detrimental nature of the modern industrialized metropolis is- suffice to say- a compound issue. A serious issue (IMHO) is the "sky-scraper," the pinnacle of which is the predominantly residential high-rise. You take the inhabitants of what would be a of couple blocks of single-story housing and then stand that on a very small rectangular patch of land. To illustrate: You take a thousand nails spaced so that an individual could lie on them without injury and instead melt them into a massively tall spike that, of course, impales them. Relate the nails/spike to resource consumption and that is, in essence, what we have done.
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140. BobinTampa 18:49 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Where did deserts come from before man existed?




In a related note, it is FREAKING pouring in Tampa today.
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141. Stats56 18:53 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:
Hopefully Texas isn't becoming an expansion of the desert.


Ever seen West Texas? ;)
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142. HouGalv08 18:53 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Interesting phenomenon taking place in and around Houston. I've lived here now 37 years and never seen it as dry as it is now. Whats happening is that as the trees are dying from lack of water (mostly oaks right now), limbs are falling of trees. I suspect they are so brittle from lack of water that the weight of the limbs just snaps em off. Pine trees are leaning from not being able to hold on, and they are falling occasionally too. Very scary to drive down streets and see a tree leaning across the road as you approach it.
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143. tatoprweather 18:53 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Weather conditions S and SW of the CV islands getting very very very interesting
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144. Cotillion 18:54 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. I see that.
Bad Stuff, Cot.

Problem is, how DO you deal with that Mindset??????


Both a short term and a long term solution.

Short term is an appropriate judicial and policing response. Scenes of police backing away whilst groups of idiots loot shops hardly inspires confidence in law abiders and just makes some think 'oh, well if they won't do anything, then I'll do it too!' Not that I blame our police, they are outnumbered with their hands tied behind their backs. Our emergency services have been quite courageous throughout this, as they always commendably are.

But as you see, it has spread to many of England's major cities. Not nearly as bad though, there can be a tendency to exaggerate things at times in occasions like this (aside London, which was bad). It does make you think how much of law and order is based on the consent of the majority.

Particularly sad to see problems in Manchester, an area I used to live close to. The Arndale in particular, as it was redeveloped after the bombing by the IRA in '96.

Long term is to attack the root of the problem. Some trot out the usual 'well, it's because they're poor'. It isn't. How can you be when it is all being co-ordinated by Blackberrys (or Blackberries?)? There are a fair few run down areas across the country where jobs are scarce. Not any riotous sentiment uttered. It's something else, whatever it may be. Throwing money at it hasn't helped.

That's all I can think of, though. It's definitely different to the riots of the recent past - usually been race or economic at the cause of it.

--

Oh, I suppose I should add something weather related. At least it's not a heatwave. That wouldn't help. A bit of cold, Autumanal rain might help dampen down fiery tempers, tension and the fires.
Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
145. srada 18:54 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting BobinTampa:
Where did deserts come from before man existed?




In a related note, it is FREAKING pouring in Tampa today.


the dinosaurs used propane instead of charcoal..
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146. RitaEvac 18:54 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
100.4 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 119 °F
Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912
147. wxhatt 18:55 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

I do believe the next few years will begin to tell many of the anthropogenic changes among our climate--not just in the U.S. but around the entire globe. However, in relation to desertification in the southern Plains, it is pretty clear that has been ongoing for quite sometime now.

And it will only get worse. Much worse.


I read somewhere that those factors you mentioned are not the only ones contributing to GW. They said that all the planets in our solar system had also been showing signs of warming. I guess that would put some of it to solar varitions.
Member Since: 5 octobre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834
149. wxhatt 18:56 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

I do believe the next few years will begin to tell many of the anthropogenic changes among our climate--not just in the U.S. but around the entire globe. However, in relation to desertification in the southern Plains, it is pretty clear that has been ongoing for quite sometime now.

And it will only get worse. Much worse.


I read somewhere that those factors you mentioned earlier are not the only ones contributing to GW. They said that all the planets in our solar system had also been showing signs of warming. I guess that would put some of it to solar variations.
Member Since: 5 octobre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834
150. tropicfreak 18:57 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Guys I won't be on the next few days.I got word yesterday night that my grandmother had died.I'll be going to the funeral in N.C starting Wensday.Until then keep the peace on the blog.And no sly tricks while I'm gone.See you guys next week.


Sorry for your loss. I know exactly what you are going through, I lost my grandpa at the end of March. My condolences go out to you and your family. Hope you have safe travels.
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151. RitaEvac 18:57 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting wxhatt:


I read somewhere that those factors you mentioned are not the only ones contributing to GW. They said that all the planets in our solar system had also been showing signs of warming. I guess that would put some of it to solar varitions.


Because all the planets are getting closer to lining up in the solar system, and should align by Dec. 21st 2012, which should set us all on fire.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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