Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:43 GMT le 09 août 2011 +20
According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela
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251. Levi32 20:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting tropicfreak:


Levi, wasn't that the type of setup Isabel was under?


Isabel had an extremely pronounced blocking ridge to her north with a defined trough over Wisconsin, and the ensembles don't show that extreme of a setup. However, that doesn't mean that it can't result in storms sneaking toward the coastline.

500mb height anomalies on September 15th, 2003, when Isabel was about to start turning northwest in the SW Atlantic:

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
252. 69Viking 20:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting cloudburst2011:



wow there ratings must really be low for him to make and assinine statement like that...


Not sure why you would call that assinine, old Emily is currenty moving SE and could ride around the High if it doesn't connect with the front ahead of it. He didn't say it was a definite, just that it's a possibility and in weather never say never.
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253. Levi32 20:32 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Back after work.
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254. tropicfreak 20:34 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


Isabel had an extremely pronounced blocking ridge to her north with a defined trough over Wisconsin, and the ensembles don't show that extreme of a setup. However, that doesn't mean that it can't result in storms sneaking toward the coastline.

500mb height anomalies on September 15th, 2003, when Isabel was about to start turning northwest in the SW Atlantic:



Ok thanks! Always appreciate your input. Isabel was a dousy of a storm for me, knocked down several trees in my yard.

Might be something that I may need to watch in the next week or so.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
255. hydrus 20:35 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting SQUAWK:


Which goes to prove that there is no analog. Something is different and it will make the outcome different. No two are the same - ever.
ever....EVER.!...dammitt!...:)
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14281
256. NICycloneChaser 20:35 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
THIS IS PER ACCUWEATHER'S HENRY MARGUSITY ON HIS BLOG TODAYIn the meantime, there's not a lot going on in the weather with the exception of the severe weather across the South.

I am concerned that the remains of Emily may try to come around the Atlantic ridge and make it back into the Bahamas by late in the weekend. I know it's a long shot, but it has happened before and Emily seems to be riding along the edge of the ridge. If it does not make the connection with the trough in the eastern Atlantic, then the storm has the potential come around. Even if it does come around, it's not out of the question that the storm could regain strength and become a tropical depression. Time will tell.


Noooooooooooooo. Please. Just leave Emily. We'll see you in 2017.
Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1957
257. JNCali 20:39 GMT le 09 août 2011    

Quoting hcubed:
The people that gather the data determine what's "normal", and what time period this "normal" covers.
 I think 'Average' might better serve than 'Normal' since all they are doing is averaging the data...

Stormjunkie..... website still not showing up online.. who is your hosting service?
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258. Grothar 20:40 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525
259. Ribbitman 20:41 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


You remember this one dont ya Rita???

Do I ever,watched the eye pass wright over me..
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260. Seawall 20:49 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


You remember this one dont ya Rita???


If that is indeed Rita, boy do I ever remember it. Spent a long harrowing night under a mattress wondering when the roof was gonna go. Lived through it for months while the clean up progressed.
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261. JLPR2 20:49 GMT le 09 août 2011    
92L is alive... Alive! *laughs crazily* XD



Also nice spin behind 92L
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262. MTWX 20:52 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Tornadic Supercells!!
Link
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263. hydrus 20:52 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Noooooooooooooo. Please. Just leave Emily. We'll see you in 2017.
Emily will never leave...never She will put the perfect storm to shame...The Great Red Spot looks like a molecule next to the omnipresent Emily......
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264. hydrus 20:54 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
That blob down there looks suspicious......Good evening Grothar.
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265. MTWX 20:54 GMT le 09 août 2011    


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267. NOLALawyer 20:57 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
THIS IS PER ACCUWEATHER'S HENRY MARGUSITY ON HIS BLOG TODAYIn the meantime, there's not a lot going on in the weather with the exception of the severe weather across the South.

I am concerned that the remains of Emily may try to come around the Atlantic ridge and make it back into the Bahamas by late in the weekend. I know it's a long shot, but it has happened before and Emily seems to be riding along the edge of the ridge. If it does not make the connection with the trough in the eastern Atlantic, then the storm has the potential come around. Even if it does come around, it's not out of the question that the storm could regain strength and become a tropical depression. Time will tell.


Hah! That would be great. She gets a second chance at glory. LOL
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268. NOLALawyer 21:00 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting tropicalweather12:
that means lots of names storms going out to sea!!


Read it again.

It means there is a possibility of these storms impacting the east coast.
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269. Grothar 21:03 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
That blob down there looks suspicious......Good evening Grothar.


Evening, hydrus. Don't think much will come of it. Very dry air down there. I suspect that blob off the African coast should be near the Islands by Saturday, though.
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272. JLPR2 21:07 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting tropicalweather12:
see tropical wave at 30 west


92L
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273. AtHomeInTX 21:10 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


You remember this one dont ya Rita???


Ah yes. She delivered my eviction notice while I was sleeping off the Texodus in Kilgore. Lol ;)
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274. NICycloneChaser 21:11 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Hah! That would be great. She gets a second chance at glory. LOL


Third chance lol
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275. hydrus 21:13 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Evening, hydrus. Don't think much will come of it. Very dry air down there. I suspect that blob off the African coast should be near the Islands by Saturday, though.
This is true, but to be honest, all blobs this time of year concern me. I have seen these things come out of nothing so quickly, even when conditions dont seem to favor deveopment. I watched one spin up in the 90,s ( cant remember the name ) just north of Guatamala so fast, that it caught even the experts off guard. It was a small storm, but packed quite a punch to some of the folks down there.
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276. JLPR2 21:14 GMT le 09 août 2011    
The TW that is 92L now has a low on the surface analysis map.

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277. NoNamePub 21:15 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Thanks Doc!

When showing national Maps - referencing trends etc.
Can you please show all 50 States.

Us Hawaiian and Alaska Resident like to know how we are holding up too....
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278. vince1 21:23 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I think its sad to see the majority of the countries either have leveled out their releasing, and even reducing it, while china's is growing exponentially.

And this is why fretting over every little speck of CO2 that's emitted here in the US is a fool's errand, unless you want to bomb China back to the stone age to save the erf. Or boycott all the American companies that have moved overseas and take advantage of the more lax regulations and put a final dent in the global economy while you're at it (probably wouldn't be a bad thing, lots of human death and destruction but the earth would be saved, amirite).
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279. stormpetrol 21:23 GMT le 09 août 2011    
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280. Tropicsweatherpr 21:25 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting JLPR2:
The TW that is 92L now has a low on the surface analysis map.



And a surface trough has been added behind that low.
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281. JLPR2 21:25 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting stormpetrol:


92L is not doing as bad as we thought. Maybe it will finally get mentioned at 8pm.
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282. stormpetrol 21:26 GMT le 09 août 2011    
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283. JLPR2 21:26 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And a surface trough has been added behind that low.


Yes, this is getting interesting.
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284. WeatherNerdPR 21:29 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, this is getting interesting.

Interesting indeed:

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285. Hugo7 21:29 GMT le 09 août 2011    
emily is helping 92 by cutting off the dry air from the north, should become interesting to see what happens with 92 in the next 48.
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286. Neapolitan 21:31 GMT le 09 août 2011    
It's beginning to look a lot like--well, like the second week of August. Of particular note are the lace-like tendrils of cirrus reaching westward toward the Horn of Africa from the Indian Ocean. Those clouds are to me as sure a sign of any that the wave train is about to start cranking...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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287. JLPR2 21:32 GMT le 09 août 2011    
In front of 92L there is weak SAL and that surface through is clear for take-off thanks to 92L.

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289. weathermanwannabe 21:34 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Gonna head out for the afternoon but in the spirit of education and understanding what the folks at NHC are thinking when the season heats up (as well as having a better understanding of their products and interpreting them), I am enclosing the link below for the annual Hurricane Conference for April 2011 which lists the entire program. Most importantly, it has all of the NHC forecaster "power points" for their respective presentations. Just click on the particular underlined topic and the link will take you to the power point............Enjoy and have a great afternoon.

Link

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290. sunlinepr 21:35 GMT le 09 août 2011    
198 small Quakes in 10 days.... Hot spot N of Mona channel...

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292. sunlinepr 21:42 GMT le 09 août 2011    
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295. Some1Has2BtheRookie 21:45 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting vince1:

And this is why fretting over every little speck of CO2 that's emitted here in the US is a fool's errand, unless you want to bomb China back to the stone age to save the erf. Or boycott all the American companies that have moved overseas and take advantage of the more lax regulations and put a final dent in the global economy while you're at it (probably wouldn't be a bad thing, lots of human death and destruction but the earth would be saved, amirite).


Until recently, the U.S. was the world's largest emitter of CO2 and by a substantial margin. Recently China has taken over this "honor". China has also taken immediate steps to reduce their carbon foot print. They, it seems, have a better grasp on the future than do we and are taking better and faster measures than we. The biggest reason that China now has more CO2 emissions than we do is largely in part due to our outsourcing our manufacturing to China. Do we wait for China to have lower CO2 emissions than we do before we take another look at lowering our CO2 emissions? Do we, once again, play a game of catch up with the rest of the world? We have not lowered our CO2 emissions. We outsourced them! ... Forget China. Why do we wait on China before we start doing our part?

This is nothing against G.W. Bush but, when he went on national TV and stated that if U.S. consumers didn't want to buy products from China, then they wouldn't. My immediate question was, where do you shop at?!?!?! Antique stores? I look at where products are made before I buy them and IF I can find that product that is "Made in the USA", I buy it. The problem is, there are very few products that I have this choice with. I boycott China every chance I get along with companies that outsourced our manufacturing to them. I still have respect for China. Our corporations? Not so much.
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296. MississippiWx 21:45 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Well, Levi has hit the big time when he has people imitating him.
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298. Seawall 21:48 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, Levi has hit the big time when he has people imitating him.


Was thinking the exact same thing.
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300. Trouper415 21:53 GMT le 09 août 2011    
Levi does bring outstandingly great knowledge to this blog. And this is a very important blog to say the least.

Here's to a good summer and fall to all.

Patrick
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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