Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching
An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.
Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.
93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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well...I figure every human deserves to hear happy birthday.
This is true, especially if you are an experimental critter, but I have managed to get my distribution pretty rock-solid stable. If you're not playing with new kernels, servers, or massive clusters it's not too hard to keep it tame.
hmm. Well, maybe in the future I'll try and get a computer with Linux already on it. Like I said, I'm not very computer savvy. I can manage getting around the internet pretty well, but as far as the computer itself, and all the software, I don't know much. For now, I'll just stick with Windows. That scrolling method on the tabs is actually good enough for me.
Although, if I do ever get a desktop/laptop with Linux already on it, I'll be sure to come running asking for the script lol
Yup. Wubi gives you no risk of destroying your Windows, as Ubuntu gets run within the Windows file system.
I never mentioned everything else though with a Mac, but if I wrote it down, it'd take up almost half the page here haha
I've experimented with Red Hat, Fedora, Ubuntu, SUSE, Gentoo and Debian... they all have their pros and cons.
Ehhh, not every human.
Dang man. You've been all over the place. Or at least all over the United States.
Anyway, I think I'll take your advice about getting out more and get my butt off the ol' seat in front of the monitor. I was just gonna stop by for a little, turned out to be in front of the computer for the last three hours lol
Out for now, see you all later tonight
You have to get out more if you want to see the heavy weather. ;-) I do move around a lot: born in California; Iowa; Missouri; Alabama; back to California; Wyoming; Montana; back to Wyoming; Minnesota; Florida; Texas; Ohio; back to Florida; Colorado; back to Florida, back to California; back to Florida; back to California; and, now, back to Florida. Whew... ;-)
Where at in MT were you Neo?
Need I say anything else about wishing happy birthday to him/her/it?
Poof.
Lol...I didn't know tailors were trash either.
You couldn't pay me to use Linux, I would rather do Calc 2 any day than learn how to use Linux.
What's the fun without building custom kernels?
It's not too bad. I got kind forced into it at work. NEXRADs run on it, as do our other radar systems.
Cloudy all day and night. Light to calm winds. Highs in the low 70s, lows in the low 60s. Repeat for the next week. Going outside right now to go swimming in cool, cloudy weather.
Anyway, later all
I hate you. LOL.
Happy birthday! I hope you had a great one.
Oh, I'd love to be there LOL
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Frames 9-12 show a lotta new precip spinning towards centex.
(In TX it rarely rains after sundown so this is a novelty)
I'm tempted to minus this post...jk
WHXX01 KWBC 120048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110812 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110812 0000 110812 1200 110813 0000 110813 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.3W 14.9N 40.3W 16.0N 43.7W 17.2N 47.7W
BAMD 14.0N 37.3W 14.8N 40.6W 15.7N 44.1W 16.6N 47.6W
BAMM 14.0N 37.3W 14.9N 40.3W 16.0N 43.9W 17.1N 47.7W
LBAR 14.0N 37.3W 14.9N 40.5W 15.9N 44.1W 16.7N 48.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110814 0000 110815 0000 110816 0000 110817 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 51.7W 23.0N 59.4W 27.5N 65.2W 33.4N 66.1W
BAMD 17.5N 50.9W 19.3N 56.5W 20.8N 61.0W 21.9N 65.4W
BAMM 18.5N 51.4W 21.5N 58.1W 24.9N 63.7W 29.0N 67.7W
LBAR 17.7N 51.8W 19.8N 58.2W 21.9N 62.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 57KTS 59KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 37.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 34.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
AL, 92, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 140N, 373W, 25, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
;)
Big Timber (beautiful), then Hardin (not so much). ;-)
LOL! I Lived in Great Falls for 10 years. I sure do miss it!
hiking, sight-seeing, eating awesome mexican food, drinking fancy california wines...it's a rough life.
they are this takes time
lol...same as here..HOT..100 DEGREES no chance of rain for the next year
Looks pretty Bad right now...
There is no pressure requirement for TD/TS status.
Better Mexican food in Houston and San Antonio, I'd bet. ;)
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