Two African waves, 92L and 93L, worth watching
An African wave is near 13°N 35°W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 92L), is moving west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 92L has less heavy thunderstorm activity near where it is trying to develop its circulation center than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops that a large area of dry air lies just to the west of 92L, but the atmosphere in the immediate vicinity of 92L is moist. Even so, the decline of heavy thunderstorm activity since yesterday implies that dry air is probably working its way into 92L. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 26.5° - 27°C, which is very close to the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Invest 92L and Invest 93L.
Forecast for 92L
Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west to west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which would put the storm in the vicinity of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. On Saturday and Sunday, 92L is expected to enter a region where an upper-level low pressure system will bring high wind shear of 20 knots to the storm, which should slow development. This upper-level low is also expected to turn 92L more to the northwest, so the storm is likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, though may pass close enough to give heavy rains to the northernmost islands. It is too early to know if 92L will recurve out to sea and potentially threaten Bermuda, or continue to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast.
93L
An African wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is near 10°N 22°W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system, (Invest 93L), is also moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before arriving near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands near the middle of next week. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has a decent amount of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity is not well organized. There is not much spin associated with 93L yet. 93L is fairly well-protected from dry air to its north and west. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 93L. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear below 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize. 93L is about 600 miles east of 92L, which is close enough that the two systems may interfere with each others' organization. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. Due to moister air, the potential for less wind shear, and a more southerly track, 93L is probably a greater threat to the Lesser Antilles than 92L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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well 94L might be a threat to the SE coast as well..I hate being redundant but its really a wait and see for ALL these storms..mother nature always has tricks up her sleeves..
FLOOD!!!!! MUAH BABY!
The sound my grampa used to make right before mom would hurriedly open the closest window... memories...
It's just a downlink/processing error from one of the satellite passes. (Note that the error is wider near the top of the image; that's due to the distortions inherent in the Mercator projection used, which causes increasing distortion as one moves away from the Equator.)
Link
Yea, I saw that last evening. JB's been on a tear the past few days--an unscientific tear, but a tear nonetheless... ;-)
I dont think many people are listening anyway. Seems they have forgotten 2004 already. None of this is getting a blip in CentFLA.
ROTFLMAO
and I got the visual
I see you got patented
000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
THEN
INDICATE A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADING WEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPPING SOUTH OVER THE SERN REGION...REMAINING NORTH OF
OUR AREA. IF THIS VERIFIES...BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL CHANCES AND
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
Agreed, after dashing for some emergency coffee and looking again, you can clearly see the artifact.
yes, veeeery "pretty"!
i raise one pumping the ridge
I don't think that 93L will recurve.
"HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defense purposes.
The HAARP program is committed to developing a world class ionospheric research facility consisting of:
* The Ionospheric Research Instrument (IRI), a high power transmitter facility operating in the High Frequency (HF) range. The IRI will be used to temporarily excite a limited area of the ionosphere for scientific study.
* A sophisticated suite of scientific (or diagnostic) instruments that will be used to observe the physical processes that occur in the excited region.
Observation of the processes resulting from the use of the IRI in a controlled manner will allow scientists to better understand processes that occur continuously under the natural stimulation of the sun."
That's the official word on the program...unofficially it is claimed by a number of individuals that HAARP is altrenatly a weather control technology, a communications device for speaking with , hell, I don't know a or even, heaven help us, a device for causing earthquakes...
Huh?
I have a full house, naked swirl over pumping the ridge.
ROFL +100!
Hows things, tig? MUAH back atya!
That's really nice to know.
If only we still used them.. ;)
And if pigs had wings we'd all of us carry an umbrella
pulling another 12hr today...yay me...lol...shoulda come out last night...pot roast with baby taters n carrots for dinner with a side of watermelon n peanut butter cookies with mini reseese cups in em...
HAARP has been used to influence hurricanes traveling through the Hebert Box, potentially causing them to exhibit a Fujiwara effect and take a route over the storm-killing Tunnels.
Lmao
I'm very tempted to raise you heightened sunspot activity and Project StormFury...what the hell! In for a penny, in for a pound...called and raised
I'll see your pumped ridge and raise you two deep troughs.
XXL MOVEMENT
92L WNW
93L W
94L WSW
95L NE
Wow, when was this? We got some srpinkles he in SA overnight
Looks promising on the IR, but there isnt squat on the radar.
Link
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