Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss
It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.
Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.
92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.
94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.
Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.
95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.
Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.
Next post
I'll have a new post by 1pm Saturday.
Jeff Masters
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Excellent post...
Don't forget about that AOI off NC. Did I wake presslord?
Danke. :)
By the way, I stole that African image from this site.
Link
It's one of my favorites.
It came back around to us on a Friday, trash day for the neighborhood where we were trying to sell our old house. I got a call later that night that our trash cans, which were sitting on our curb, had floated down the street and into the bayou. He said he tried to catch them - but they were just moving too fast. Luckily no damage to either of the houses - we were luckier than a lot of people.
Adding it to my collection...
Want a bunch of them I use? Check this link and use the ones that have anim in it...
Link
http://www.meteorological-lies.com/Emily2.html
And, who would have thought? LOL
There are quite a few allegations that Weather manipulation is being used by superpowers... Using Silver Iodide crystals, HAARP, and other techniques.... (dry ice and liquid propane also work)
Weather manipulation, to some extend has been documented...
But exageration and disinformation hangs around it...
Check out this link
China's Weather Manipulation Brings Crippling Snowstorm to Beijing
Link
Holy guacamole! It's the mother load! Thanks. :)
Any attempt to stop the natural process of fever reduction in the Atlantic Basin, would eventually fail, and might cause other even crazier symptoms of this disease.
Classify them per area and post them here... That makes the blog more interesting and richier...
From the looks of this it actually looks like 93L was attacked from behind by Dry air.
Se ve feo... Si se organiza va a ser un montruo de Huracan... y nos puede partir por el medio....
Taking a bad shape...
If it organizes, it will be a huge Storm...
92L holding at 30%
94% at 30%
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Nope, he's just taking a nap for DMIN time......
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1002.1mb/ 34.0kt
AL, 06, 201108122345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3610N, 6230W, , 2, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MM, IM, 3, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.5 FTBO CON
AL, 06, 201108122345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3610N, 6230W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MN, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, CURV BND DT=2.5 - MET=1.5 - PT=2.0A
Lets see how it does in D-max, just approx. 3hrs away.
you mean HFAARP.....hehehe
Thanks, I value a lot all you experienced bloggers and your comments, and still have a huge way to keep learning from you all...
(P.S. to get the hurricane generator and set activity to 100%)
Yeah... I was talking about the east. East looks dry in that image.
That is amazing. The wave train has left the station. Hadn't stumbled across that site. Great link, thanks.
Map shows large mass of Saharan Air Layer just to the north of 93L. 94L is also encountering the same mass.
thanks again - to both of you folks .... Rod
Starting at 12August_6amGMT and ending at 13August_6amGMT
The westernmost grouping of red dots represents 94L's path,
the middle grouping represents 92L's path,
and the easternmost grouping represents 93L's path.
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Copy&paste 24.6n54.3w, 25.0n55.4w, 25.4n56.1w, 25.7n57.1w, 26.4n58.4w, bda, 17.0n43.3w, 17.8n45.1w, 18.6n46.9w, 19.1n48.7w, 19.5n50.0w, bgi, 11.2n28.4w, 11.3n30.0w, 11.3n31.5w, 11.6n32.6w, 11.7n33.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 13August_12amGMT)
36.2n62.6w, 37.3n61.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting at 12August_6amGMT and ending at 13August_6amGMT
The westernmost grouping of red dots represents 94L's path,
the middle grouping represents 92L's path,
and the easternmost grouping represents 93L's path.
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
TropicalStormFranklin's travel-speed was 18.2mph(29.2k/h) on a heading of 45.3degrees(NE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Franklin was headed toward passage over Dungloe,Ireland ~6days4hours from now
Copy&paste 33.6n68.8w, 34.7n66.7w, 35.5n64.7w, 35.5n64.7w-36.2n62.6w, 36.2n62.6w-37.3n61.2w, cfn, 36.2n62.6w-54.95n8.45w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 13August_12amGMT)
Unless it develops some right at D-max and after.
One Franklin coming up. XD
Hoping 93L is just yet another infamous invest. With track and forecasted trajectory however, it's going to come down to future present conditions as to whether we see the biggest threat or the biggest bust yet. I'd flip a coin and give the answer, but, that's all I could do, flip a coin. As (should be featured blogger Levi says, we shall see!)!
Yeppers, Named Storm 6. Albeit without major damage or destruction, this continues to be a active season.
Hopefully the rest of Aug, Sept, and October will be as kind. Named systems, I ok with that, major landfalling systems, here's to hoping for the current run of luck!
kind of idk...ridiculous? Pathetic?
I know there's plenty of time left in the season, but you'd think after all these storms we would finally get a hurricane or some good looking storm (obviously I don't want it to impact land, just want to watch it).
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