Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Morning, Strange start to the season. Anybody know why we can get a hurricane out of all these invest?
What causing them to stay weak?

moiture field in tropical wave/ex 93L is expanding,and will continue to grow. both convergence and divergence are getting better around the system. watch out the islanders

Thanks 4 the update Doc!

Thanks Doc. This year is so weird...

Quoting severstorm:
Morning, Strange start to the season. Anybody know why we can get a hurricane out of all these invest?
What causing them to stay weak?

Environmental conditions aren't the best. Most of these invests are facing dry air and the upper levels are not allowing for significant development. The MJO is supposed to be in effect soon and conditions could start becoming more favorable within the Caribbean, past the Leeward Islands. That should be in effect in about 3-4 days (within the coming week).

ex-93L looks more better than yesterday.

News report:

"Emergency personnel and fair officials had been monitoring the weather and preparations were being made to evacuate the facility because a severe storm was expected in the area around 9:15 p.m., Bursten said. But the storm hit just before 9 p.m., and a "significant gust of wind" struck the stage rigging that holds lights and other equipment before the evacuation plan was activated, he said."

Is this the new hurricane scale they have been talking about using for storms? Or just a tool to add to the SS scale?

Link

hmm 92L moisture is getting draged into 93L on wv its creating a moisture field in front of 93L

Quoting jasblt:
Is this the new hurricane scale they have been talking about using for storms? Or just a tool to add to the SS scale?

Link

Doesn't seem to be endorsed (yet?) by the NHC.

1774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +0
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did your heatwave finally break KOG?

yes the ex starts on friday heat is done watch it rain for the first week of the ex always does then heat will be back as the kids get ready for school last week of aug first week of sept we only got 6 weeks to go fish before the first night frosts show up
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IF ex-93L developes into a TD and stays weak in the Caribbean, it will go into CA. IF it becomes stronger, look for a pull to the weakness over the Central/N Gulf Coast.

OK...just spoke to the boy....and, thanks to y'all, managed to sound moderately knowledgeable....he delighted in telling me that today he is practicing 'stalls'....which, I suspect, means exactly what I think it means...........I'll be the guy sitting outside at the airport drinking heavily....

According to two ADTs the raw T numbers are near 3.0. Is this a sign of TD 7 now strengthening (finally)?

1776. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +0
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.


seems like a combination of updraft lift then gust front topple
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Thanks Doc, pretty short and sweet. It's been an odd season to date, but interesting in its own way: you get to talk about a fair few systems with a couple that cause headscratching. Moreover, aside perhaps Arlene, they have done little in the way of damage. Seems a pretty favourable hand.

FPT: When I mentioned the cancelling of football games, I meant 'soccer'. My English to American dictionary is glitchy this morning. ;)

thanks for update doc

sorry about the carry overs from other entry


have a nice sunday afternoon

Quoting Bobbyweather:
According to two ADTs the raw T numbers are near 3.0. Is this a sign of TD 7 now strengthening (finally)?

Correct.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.3mb/ 35.0kt

TS Warning? From Bermuda Weather Service Site:
Current Watches & Warnings

Small Craft Warning
Valid: This evening through Tonight

Issued: 11:00 am Sunday, August 14, 2011
Thunderstorm Advisory
Valid: Late Tonight through Monday morning
Updated: 11:00 am Sunday, August 14, 2011

Tropical Storm Warning
Issued: 11:00 am Sunday, August 14, 2011

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 14
Location: 28.2°N 63.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb

-

A little change, not supposed to hold at 50kts so long.

Quoting presslord:
OK...just spoke to the boy....and, thanks to y'all, managed to sound moderately knowledgeable....he delighted in telling me that today he is practicing 'stalls'....which, I suspect, means exactly what I think it means...........I'll be the guy sitting outside at the airport drinking heavily....

thats cool press its fun when ya cut the engine and free fall for a bit then try engine restart and level it out again

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT AND
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A COL
REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUS
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME IS BEING REPLACED BY A MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 48 HOURS. THESE OUT-OF-PHASE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 4...THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND MADE AN UNEXPECTED JOG TO THE WEST...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/09. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE RECENT
WESTWARD JOG IS PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW AFTER THE DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. BEYOND 12
HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE 12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM 700-400 MB HAS BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN 40-60 METERS WITHIN THIS LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
WEAKENED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR
EVEN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST IS THE
LIKELY CAUSE OF THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STILL OVER THE U.S. OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE RIDGE
COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK WESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEP TYPE OF MOTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
36-48 HOURS AND TAKE IT ACROSS MUCH COLDER WATER IN 60-72
HOURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS.

AS A RESULT OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 28.2N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 29.6N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.8N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 34.9N 62.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 38.6N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting stoormfury:
moiture field in tropical wave/ex 93L is expanding,and will continue to grow. both convergence and divergence are getting better around the system. watch out the islanders

At the rat its moving its going to be almost on top of them within 14 hours

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats cool press its fun when ya cut the engine and free fall for a bit then try engine restart and level it out again

oh God

Quoting jasblt:
Is this the new hurricane scale they have been talking about using for storms? Or just a tool to add to the SS scale?

Link

Interesting. Thanks for that.

looks like 93L is just a rain system for the caribbean, although that much cloud mass is likely to be lots of rain, any idea how much rain is likely?

Ex-93L firing off some convection.

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/50.00W


07L/TD/G/CX
invest 92L TO SE

um..if TD7 has turned northwestward, wouldnt that also put the CONUS at risk?

A pretty long discussion from Stewart, but does say that it looks like TD7 should have a window to strengthen a bit and become yet another name.

Quoting scott39:
IF ex-93L developes into a TD and stays weak in the Caribbean, it will go into CA. IF it becomes stronger, look for a pull to the weakness over the Central/N Gulf Coast.

What weakness

Quoting presslord:
OK...just spoke to the boy....and, thanks to y'all, managed to sound moderately knowledgeable....he delighted in telling me that today he is practicing 'stalls'....which, I suspect, means exactly what I think it means...........I'll be the guy sitting outside at the airport drinking heavily....

Oh God...I'd be drinking too. Bring Valium.

The global models are not developing 93L before it get to the islands. tend to disagree, because there is a vast improvement in the structure of the system and conditions ahead of the disturbed area are getting better. there is vast area of ocean real estate between the islands and 93L, about 900 miles. i expect the system to get more organised with time,and sooner or later the models will be taking a closer look at the system.

Quoting presslord:


oh God

::giggle:: I'm sorry ... but I can just SO feel your pain :) ... don't worry too much, those are trained professionals with him!

Quoting melwerle:


Oh God...I'd be drinking too. Bring Valium.

I have plenty of that, which airport again Press?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats cool press its fun when ya cut the engine and free fall for a bit then try engine restart and level it out again

I don't believe you are making presslord feel any better..LOL Press - depending on the size/style of aircraft and of course height at the time of stall, most of your smaller planes can actually glide for short distances, of course I am referring to prop airplanes. Good Luck and relax a little. I watch them do this maneuver all the time around here.

Center under the recent blowup of convection.

Quoting iamajeepmom:


::giggle:: I'm sorry ... but I can just SO feel your pain :) ... don't worry too much, those are trained professionals with him!

Oh, no!!! He'll be alone...he soloed at 16....Aussie: Charleston Executive @ Johns Island....he'll apparently be over the ocean....and assures me he can land on the Ocean Course @ Kiawah Island if need be...

Hey Press - you ever see that commercial where the Dad is handing the keys to the five year old in the car? Yep...I'm sure that's how you feel right about now. It's a feeling only a parent understands and that commercial hits the nail on the head PERFECTLY.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +0
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did your heatwave finally break KOG?

yes the ex starts on friday heat is done watch it rain for the first week of the ex always does then heat will be back as the kids get ready for school last week of aug first week of sept we only got 6 weeks to go fish before the first night frosts show up
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 26872

We seem to have forgot summer.. and have stayed in a nice warm spring it seems. Average is 20-22 everyday... nice and warm, no really hot days at all.

Quoting melwerle:
Hey Press - you ever see that commercial where the Dad is handing the keys to the five year old in the car? Yep...I'm sure that's how you feel right about now. It's a feeling only a parent understands and that commercial hits the nail on the head PERFECTLY.

yup...I love that...

Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


I don't believe you are making presslord feel any better..LOL Press - depending on the size/style of aircraft and of course height at the time of stall, most of your smaller planes can actually glide for short distances, of course I am referring to prop airplanes. Good Luck and relax a little. I watch them do this maneuver all the time around here.

ITS A RUSH YOU FEEL THAT TINKLING FROM THE TOES ALL THE WAY UP AS THE PLANE STARTS TO DRIVE HEADING STRAIGHT DOWN TOWARDS THE GROUND GETTING EVER CLOSER THEN ENGINE RESTART AND PULL UP TAKE OFF WITH THE GROUND FALLING BEHIND YOU WHAT A RUSH CAN YA INVISION THAT PRESS CAN YA SEE IT