Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I always see these things too late. lol.

... Significant weather advisory for Jasper... Newton and Orange
counties until 415 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms... along a line extending from call to
Deweyville... moving south at 15 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Hartburg... Forest Heights... Wrights settlement... Buna...
Mauriceville... Orange... gist... Bridge City and Vidor.

The primary threats from these storms are continuous lightning and
wind gusts 35 to 45 mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe home or building
until these storms have passed.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a
short period of time... resulting in ponding of water around low lying
roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle into water covered
roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.

looks like TS Gert is either going to make a direct hit on bermuda or pass just east of the island

Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L has a large circulation and growing, wouldn't be surprised if it is soon reactivated!

yup

Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...

Quoting thunderbug91:
Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...

it will still be 93L

Quoting Tazmanian:



it will still be 93L

Thanks.... looks like the NHC can't keep ignoring its reexisience in the TWO too much longer...

Quoting rv1pop:
Science is repeatable.

I've found that even if the theory should be correct, the execution may take some work. As a synthetic chemist I run into more reactions that don't work the first time you run them than do, even if they're well known or documented procedures. Sometimes it's a bad batch of a reagent, or there's some other environmental factor. Sometimes it's just whether or not you've sacrificed a hamster that day.

Unless of course you're Bengu Sezen, look her up sometime. Now that's a bedtime story for the ages.

*Oh, and I'm not disagreeing with you, I just thought I'd throw in my two cents.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh /AL0711_PROB64_F120 gif/204113.gif
at least there's a chance...

Quoting thunderbug91:


Thanks.... looks like the NHC can't keep ignoring its reexisience in the TWO too much longer...

yup

Quoting Stats56:


Very nice thunderstorm at my house in The Woodlands. Hope it heads your way.

Well, they just crossed into the beltway and forming a nice line, so we should down here in West U!

i think 92L will with stan a better ch once are TS move out of the way a little

Quoting stormpetrol:
ex93L has a large circulation and growing, wouldn't be surprised if it is soon reactivated!

SW Caribbean looking interesting too.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L. If this becomes Harvey we'd be talking about another non-Hurricane, I don't think the blog can handle that.. I'd have to post more posts like post 201.

I just went back and must admit that was quite the post. Lol. You should screen shot that. 51 likes is like a blog record.

Btw, I agree thoroughly with all the points you made in that post.

Each season HAS to have a hurricane. Tropical systems are mother nature's form of transporting heat from the tropics towards the poles. Weak tropical cyclones aren't gonna cut it.

Quoting Tazmanian:
i think 92L will with stan a better ch once are TS move out of the way a little

It's getting eaten by gert

Quoting deaddude21:
Wow, the US is likely to be spared landfalls yet another hurricane season. This will make 5 out of 6 years...during an extensively active portion of an already active period...amazing.

And yes, Fabian is the last serious Bermuda hit. People complaining that "it's not a fish storm, it might hit Bermuda" need to get a reality check. A fish/recurving OTS storm has about 1 in 1,000 chance of a serious impact on Bermuda. Fabian is to Bermuda as say, Iniki is to Hawaii, or Hurricane Juan is to Halifax. Those places just don't get seriously hit by formidable hurricanes very often.

I wouldn't be to fast to say the U.S is spared.It's not September yet.And the U.S can also get hit in October.Everything will be clear come 11/30/11.

at least there's a chance

Quoting weatherh98:


It's getting eaten by gert

gert is moveing a way from 92L so it may not be has close has you may think it is

Looks like I'm not done yet...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Jasper County in southeast Texas...
southwestern Newton County in southeast Texas...
this includes Deweyville...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes... West Orange... Vidor... Orange... Mauriceville...
southwestern Calcasieu Parish in southwest Louisiana...
northwestern Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana...

* until 430 PM CDT

* at 345 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms... capable of producing damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph... from 6 miles west of Deweyville to 9 miles
northeast of Orange... moving south at 15 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
gist... Weiss Bluff... Lakeview... Orangefield and Pine Forest

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are caught outside... do not seek shelter under a tree.
Instead... head indoors away from windows.

The 18Z NAM - 84 hours out.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just went back and must admit that was quite the post. Lol. You should screen shot that. 51 likes is like a blog record.

Btw, I agree thoroughly with all the points you made in that post.

Each season HAS to have a hurricane. Tropical systems are mother nature's form of transporting heat from the tropics towards the poles. Weak tropical cyclones aren't gonna cut it.

And with those sst and TCHP something has to use it.Or else something waaaaay woarse will happen to us.

Quoting washingaway:
The 18Z NAM - 84 hours out.

looks like it froms ex93L

Quoting P451:


It's been raining for 15 consecutive hours where I am in SE NY State - approx 30 miles north of NYC.

They have 6-8"+ from Staten Island into Brooklyn.


It's a very fall-like system but not nor'easter like. The surface low is sliding northward through NJ along a front right now.

Had it done that off the coast of the DelMarVa we might have seen the winds crank up, the temperatures drop, and we would have seen a nor'easter develop.

Regardless of that it's a very impressive system - upper low over Ohio is amazing looking.

yup

Quoting Tazmanian:




looks like it froms ex93L

Yup

Today's pass on an anemic Gert. Large quicktime..

Quoting Tazmanian:





gert is moveing a way from 92L so it may not be has close has you may think it is

It's sucking the life out of 92 l either way the vorticity is way down and it's losing storms fast

all so with gret moveing a way i noted there is a big blow up with 92L

Anyone having trouble with google earth's cloud layer? I still have Emily on there

Quoting CybrTeddy:



.. your kidding right? You do realize, that every hurricane season since the beginning of the satellite era has seen a hurricane? And why don't you give facts to back that up, you've been saying for a few days that there won't be any hurricanes this year and why is that? Look at the SST's in the Atlantic, they're sky rocking above normal.

You know why there is dry air? Downward MJO causing suppressing convection and an average amount of SAL. You know why half our systems are weak this year? They're trough splits.. tell me when was the last time you saw a trough split form off the eastern seaboard that became a Category 3-4 hurricane? 1984 is your answer. Then finally look at last year, one quick glance at wiki would be all it would take - here, I'll link it for you. Link. Ignore Alex, Alex was a one-off, not even 2005 saw a Category 2 in the Gulf in June. Please, look at TD2, Bonnie, Colin then TD5. Then also remember we had several other invests that attempted to become tropical depressions that year.. then look at when we had our first true major hurricane, and our first hurricane in over two months.

The 2nd to last week of August, then what happened with the upward MJO came spinning around? Season went out of hand. Okay sure - no US landfalls. Sorry to break it to you, the USA is not the only country on the map. You want to hear something? Karl caused $5.6 billion dollars in damages.. one Category. It was IIRC the 3rd most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico. It was not retired because Mexico didn't request it. Please, look at the facts and stop making assumptions 'oh, its only mid-August and no hurricanes season is a bust inactive', and I'm tired of stressing this point if no one is going to listen and I had to rant and annoy you all for it last year too if you remember - we are ahead of schedule and conditions are primed for a change. The ECMWF shows a hurricane hitting the islands.. and that reverts right back to what I just said, do people on the islands not count? I know people who live in Barbados, I would be very upset if a bad hurricane hit them anytime soon.

Then look at this - this season the conditions are the same as last year and we're cranking out more storms that are facing the same conditions. What does that tell you? Once conditions lessen up, like they did last year, like they do EVERY year.. things will get active. You'll get your hurricane.

Sorry everyone, had to rant, very grumpy this PM, lol.

LOL

Quoting washingtonian115:
And with those sst and TCHP something has to use it.Or else something waaaaay woarse will happen to us.

Take 1992 for example. That season started off with 3 or 4 (sub?)tropical depressions. What happened in August? Andrew.

It just got DARK here! Fixing to get loud I imagine.

Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10 years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.

Gladly.



Hurricane Ida (2009). May not have been a hurricane at landfall, but it had been a hurricane within the past 48 hours prior to landfall.

Good afternoon all.

there is now some spin with ex 93 but it needs to develop soon or it might have to wait to the central carib

Quoting islander101010:
there is now some spin with ex 93 but it needs to develop soon or it might have to wait to the central carib

it will am rooting for it

I think Cybr's post should be one of the below.

A) under Dr M's right before where you click on comments

B) at the top of each page

C) required reading before joining.

201. CybrTeddy 5:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +56

if thats not a record for not only the post of the year but post of WU history then i dont know what is LOL.


TS gert.


96L

Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.

y

Someone who says the U.S. will not be impacted by a hurricane this far out is out of touch, completly idiotic. Guess your some sort of pshycic or something. Good thing I dont believe in that type of stuff

theirs something their

Quoting Tazmanian:



it will am rooting for it

sorry taz you got my vote about 4 yrs ago but im rooting against formation could be a angry one

Quoting deaddude21:

Then what are the two light teal dots above the northernmost white dot doing? ZING.

Fine.

Quoting islander101010:
sorry taz you got my vote about 4 yrs ago but im rooting against formation could be a angry one

lol ok

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Take 1992 for example. That season started off with 3 or 4 (sub?)tropical depressions. What happened in August? Andrew.

I suspect in late August we'll get our first hurricane even major.

Already posted

CybrTeddy: +56
Dr. Masters: +7

Good fight, Dr. Masters.

On a side note, convection is starting to wane with 96L as it encounters a region of higher wind shear.