Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fine.

Quoting deaddude21:

I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong

Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.

Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Hurricane Kate 1985

Quoting deaddude21:
Wow, the US is likely to be spared landfalls yet another hurricane season. This will make 5 out of 6 years...during an extensively active portion of an already active period...amazing.

And yes, Fabian is the last serious Bermuda hit. People complaining that "it's not a fish storm, it might hit Bermuda" need to get a reality check. A fish/recurving OTS storm has about 1 in 1,000 chance of a serious impact on Bermuda. Fabian is to Bermuda as say, Iniki is to Hawaii, or Hurricane Juan is to Halifax. Those places just don't get seriously hit by formidable hurricanes very often.

Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.

Quoting deaddude21:
All due respect, -AMO periods favor that more

And that's two in 100 years. Both Cat 1's too, imo November shouldn't be considered part of the season

Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


My point is that, even though there haven't had many hurricane landfalls on the USA after October, you can't say that you could go ahead and put away all your hurricane preparedness supplies, because anything is possible.

Quoting deaddude21:
All due respect, -AMO periods favor that more

And that's two in 100 years. Both Cat 1's too, imo November shouldn't be considered part of the season

Quoting nofailsafe:


I've found that even if the theory should be correct, the execution may take some work. As a synthetic chemist I run into more reactions that don't work the first time you run them than do, even if they're well known or documented procedures. Sometimes it's a bad batch of a reagent, or there's some other environmental factor. Sometimes it's just whether or not you've sacrificed a hamster that day.

Unless of course you're Bengu Sezen, look her up sometime. Now that's a bedtime story for the ages.

*Oh, and I'm not disagreeing with you, I just thought I'd throw in my two cents.

Quoting deaddude21:

Meh, that might be what the media will tell you, but in fact you can start putting away your hurricane equipment when September passes and the pattern begins to revert to fast troughs, and store them away for good as soon you start buying candy for trick-or-treaters. It's as close to impossible as it gets to have a US landfalling hurricane in November. There's just too many troughs and too much cold water. I'd like someone to show me an example to prove me wrong but it's just darn near impossible. Even October US hits are unlikely (10+ years apart from each other) and always come from the Caribbean so they're predictable.

Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.

Quoting deaddude21:

October 24th. Did you really believe Gamma was going to intensify to a major and hit you?

Quoting starbuck02:


Wasn't Wilma close to November? Maybe my memory isn't that great.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyways...Don't give up hope for 96L just yet. You know the storms in past seasons such as Grace in 2009 couldn't have had favorable environmental conditions that far north, could it have?

But yet, it formed.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyways...Don't give up hope for 96L just yet. You know the storms in past seasons such as Grace in 2009 couldn't have had favorable environmental conditions that far north, could it have?

Quoting washingtonian115:
Dude!!.Some of the woarst hurricanes to happen in the carribean have happened in October-Novemeber.And you say just becuase no storms that come to the U.S have no chance??.Oh it's not important just becuase it doesn't hit the U.S???.Wilma cuased much damage to Mexico and the U.S!! the U.S.Opal much!!!!??.Don't try to write something off.Where the hell is your facts?.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Gladly.



Hurricane Ida (2009). May not have been a hurricane at landfall, but it had been a hurricane within the past 48 hours prior to landfall.

Good afternoon all.

Quoting deaddude21:

Note the major hurricane difference. Sure every 8 years or so you'll get a weakling that manages to travel through the Caribbean Hebert Box and hit Florida but I dare you to find me another Wilma.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If I know one thing about 96L for sure, its that it has a well-defined circulation and it is closed. The only thing it lacks to become a tropical system is organized convection, and the center is going through times when it can be seen, and when it is obscured by strong thunderstorm activity. If shear were to lower for a just a little while, and even if it doesn't, there is still a good chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm.

Quoting Tazmanian:
TropicalAnalystwx13: what do you think about ex 93L it sure has made a good come back today


all so what you think of 92L i think 92L will have a btter ch once gret moves a way some

Quoting Tazmanian:




can have a link of where you got that photo from thanks all so plzs look at post 683

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe where you live, but in South Florida October is a busy month.

Excerpt:

Although overall tropical activity typically begins to quiet down in the Atlantic Basin during the month of October, south Florida is still prone to a tropical cyclone strike. In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month. Although the number of hurricanes peak in October, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) which have impacted the area is less than in September. Since 1851, a total of 7 major hurricanes have affected the area, ranking behind September which has had 11 major hurricanes.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


92L is being absorbed into Tropical Storm Gert IMO, it may be part of the tropical system soon. As for 93L, the chances for development prior to the Caribbean are Near 0%, but it will need to be watched in the Central/Western Caribbean for development.