Tropical Depression Seven forms
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.
92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The actual wave axis is actually closer to 45W, as seen here:
we do have 96L am not jokeing
WFUS52 KRAH 142224
TORRAH
NCC067-142315-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0043.110814T2224Z-110814T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FORSYTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 715 PM EDT
* AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER DONNAHA...OR OVER KING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL HALL...
PFAFFTOWN...STANLEYVILLE...
WINSTON-SALEM...
SEDGE GARDEN...
North of Hispañola btw.
But hurricanes are gigantic heat engines that cool the tropics and do go poleward.
It exists, it's on the navy site. I just can't figure out where it is lol.
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108142020
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
You were saying?
Sweet. I didn't even know about this. Thanks for the enlightenment!
does not exist i checked out at navy site
lol
At 18z surface analysis,they put the wave axis at 50W.
yes it dos we do have 96L your not even looking
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 0, DB. Oh yea Its real. LOL.
Ohhhhh, Emily's granddaughter. Thank you :)
NO its not we really do have 96L
Need the link to see for yourself??
If I'm not mistaken, the environment surrounding Shary was a bit more conducive, as there was no real semblance of dry air. Her satellite presentation definitely wasn't one indicative of dry air intrusion.
Ah, okay. I couldn't find the 18z, or I would have posted it.
No, it isn't. We do have 96L.
if he keeps pull this crap am going too give him the poof
96L info
not that you deserve this kind of proof, but here
Wow have you ever heard that it split from Gert a few days ago, and it does have good vorticy, get your facts straight.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN PENDER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 630
PM EDT...
AT 620 PM EDT...THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING A TORNADO...THUS THE TORNADO WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE HOLLY SHELTER GAME LAND THROUGH 7 PM.
I have to say, we shouldn't poof deaddude... the season will school him as necessary.... and one point he makes is valid; the return time for November hurricanes in the US is pretty high.
His problem is that we then see quite a lot of specious logic and faulty argument in his comments . For example, the fact that we did not see a major hurricane impact the US last year doesn't automatically mean we won't see one this year. Same as always, it's a 1/2 chance; either we do or we don't. Additionally, he is trying to use his point to support the rather... naive... view that only hurricanes that impact the US matter, and that ignoring hurricanes in other parts of the ATL somehow strengthens the US position. Finally, we can tell that he doesn't as yet fully understand the ROLE of the NHC, because he believes that they should only comment on and respond to storms that impact the US - hence his view that the season should end shortly after October. He doesn't recognise the US's role as a leader in the WMO and its commitment to providing accurate and thorough information about tropical cyclones in three tropical basins: the ATL, EPac, and CPac.
But that's why he - and most of the rest of us - are here, right? To learn? And the rest of the bloggers, who don't necessarily agree with him, should not automatically "knee-jerk" him off your screens...
How do you know this c*** lol
based on recon, that is your center
see blog 92L is not has close has you think and you cant tell by looking at some 850mb vort that may have been a part of some in else
old map look at the 18Z
But, I think she was being sheared a lot more than what Gert is.
EX 93L nearing 60 W still not organize give it currenT state I am gviing up on EX 93L
I strongly disagree , I think ex93L will be the biggest player of all in about 3-4 days, we here in the western & NW caribbean have to keep a close on it!JMO of course!
Mid-latitude cyclones are often just as intense as tropical cyclones and are often much larger. They occur more frequently. They occur at all times of the year, over land and water. They are more effective.
But I am repeating myself.
Cause I issued forecasts for her. ;)
Yeah, I guess I should have said the thermodynamic environment was more moist.
However, Shary was also moving fairly quickly, which mitigated the effects of the speed shear. That is probably what allowed her to become a hurricane. High latitude systems are notorious for this.
O_O
That puts her center right under the deepest convection.
Lol I gotta go back and look at stuff like that your alot better than me in that regard after a season is over i put it in the past lol...I could bring up a storm from 1895 and you will say "Oh with that one what happened was..." lol your like a human history book
definitely a circulation with ex93L
Does it matter which is more effective? The statement that hurricanes transfer heat to the poles is still a correct statement.
In reality i been here longer than him lol ask him he will tell ya ;)
That's neat. Hope you don't mind my entry. :)
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