Tropical Depression Seven forms
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.
92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Center should be appearing soon. I think......
I agree, playing the waiting game...radar updates every 10 minutes. So next update at 11:31
Yep...Gert could be pulling a fast one!
The only problem is that the CV season has started.
Wait...is that the center of Gert on the Bermuda radar...just outside of the 240 km circle? If so...it sort of looks like a ragged eye.
I agree, the radar is looking quite impressive!
Cant wait to see it!!
Perhaps these systems know something that we should already understand.
They dont paste it on the front pages of the paper,yet they are telling us something just the same.
Very much like the Free Masons.
I doubt it is a true eye, but radar should show us what is going on very soon.
From what?
Blog stress medication?
Okay, listen. Go back to my post at 201.. the one that got 62 likes.. because I really am not up to posting that again. If that doesn't convince you that there will be hurricanes this season, absolutely nothing will.
Link
Yeah...I guess a true eye would show a solid yellow or red circle on radar reflectivity....this one is more green (less intense) and ragged if there is one....
It hit Hispaniola and rained for nearly 2 days there, ya know...
I woutld like to see of D-Max in the morn will help alot with ex-93L's convection problem
possible formation of a partial eyewall?
Oh of course.
I saw US$
And thought it meant cost the US$
According to microwave imagery, it is a developing eyewall.. meaning that Gert is probably at least a 60 mph TS at this time. We don't have a recon in there to confirm that, but when recon went in they found a 45 mph TS when the Satellite images said it was only a 35 mph depression.. leads me to suspect this is stronger than the satellite imagery is thinking.
I am glad we are blogging with all this technology and information available...imagine trying to have a discussion like this back in the good ol' days...
Hmmm...a ship in the open ocean reported some bad weather and looks suspicious....we'll dispatch recon to it....we'll wait and see a few hours in the meantime....
See you then, heck by then judging by this season we might be watching for post-season tropical cyclones.
I was thinking the same when reading the 11 PM NHC discussion...they said the 45 mph winds afternoon recon measured were stronger than Dvorak satellite intensity estimates would suggest...and those winds were measured HOURS AGO...The NHC is being conservative here I think this evening.
And it is known infrared satellite intensity estimates can be off with small storms. Why just last year we had this issue with Hurricane Shary....they upgraded it because of its Microwave appaerance...Marco 2008 was really small and sat. intensity estimates were too low as well...
Forecaster Jeff Torgerson said, Rain and showers are expected to amount to up to 1-3 inches potentially across the area, with heavier amounts toward the east, while seas/SE swells are not expected to reach over 9 feet at the peak, with a relatively short-lived development of the storm to this point.
The wind forecast again, is not so much based on model data (consistent in holding generally light and backing winds over the Island), but on the storm track and intensity forecast by NHC.
Strongest winds of 25-35 knots with gusts to 45 knots are expected over the eastern marine area, while the Bermuda forecast holds moderate to strong winds, with gust to gale force.
Gusts are expected to be strongest in and around heavier shower and thunderstorm activity, which, again is most likely to the east of the Island.
I don't know....that center looks like its just outside of 240 km...and it looks "eyeish"...Gert is impressing me minute by minute here....
This is the year of misleading TCs, remember the satellites estimates saying Emily was a hurricane while it was barely a tropical cyclone?
Satellite estimates for Emily topped out at T3.0-3.5 which is 45-55kts. Gert does apppear to be pulling something...
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.7mb/ 35.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.6 3.7
Raw T has really cranked up on Gert, now almost to hurricane according just to the RAW T.
When Emily blew up south of PR.
Well...actually you can point them to Gert...she may actually pull this off and become a hurricane...she is already looking suspicious I gather from my feelings and some of the comments here.
She isn't a hurricane yet...but her chances are certainly growing by the developments we have been seeing in the last few hours...
I wouldn't trust it that far out. Is that a doppler? Can it do BV and SRV?
Really, I remember seeing them close or at hurricane strength and posted here.
Hi Pottery, I remember he used to post some here...hope he returns, I liked his post. Hope you get your rain :)
What is a 3.7? How close to hurricane?
WOW...is this really developing quickly or what?!
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