Tropical Depression Seven forms
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.
92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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heh heh heh
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN IT SLIDES WEST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE IT SLIDES WEST AND AS A
RESULT...THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS
NOT A STRONG INDICATION OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS/RAIN EVENT FOR
NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING A
FIRM GRIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK...BUT WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING FOR CHANGES TO OR IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. NEARLY EACH DAY THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES /WHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES/...BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL ON A DAILY BASIS.
Somewhere in North Carolina, Presslord just woke up in a cold sweat and doesn't know why..;)
The Sahara is expanding S some 10 or more miles per year... How will this affect eventually the emission of waves from CV region?
That's a good Graduate study for any Met. student...
This forecast IS NOT GOOD...drought will generally continue....
Take Felix, Charley, Jeanne, to name 3.
Then take Bertha, Karl (2004), and Danielle (2004). These found favorable conditions off of Africa and recurved out to sea.
Open this link and then click on the globe for a big zoom...
Link
The main page is
Link
Like...21? 19 to 21, sorta like last year perhaps just a little tad bit more busy. I do see the US also being threatened sometime next month by multiple hurricanes.
Your right, and that's very bad news for the US. You want them to develop as soon as they hit the water as 90% they recurve to open seas.
Yes indeed. Waves that don't start developing until they get near the islands or further W pose a much greater risk for the CONUS.
6 HR... 55 MPH
12 HR...60 MPH
18 HR... 65 MPH
24 HR ... 70 Mph
30 HR.... 75 Mph
36 HR.... 70 MPH
42 HR.... 60 MPH
48 HR.... 50 MPH extratropical
Also, WU has all the greek-named storm maps from 2005 hitting Africa and Spain.
Sorry for my english, I should have said that the dessert is Expanding south, not moving...
It would be interesting gathering recorded and actual data to pronosticate what will effect it would have interacting with the ITCZ...
Also another interesting study would be (For those who think that there is global warming); What's the effect of higher temps. on the dessert storms vs. the ITCZ... SAL will be stronger and travel much farher, but also WV generation will be higher...
heh heh heh this kinding lol night all
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...OUTER BANDS OF GERT APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 63.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Driest I've ever lived through, although I'm a Texas newbie of only about 7 years. 10-day outlook is a whole lotta 103 degrees, 0% chance of rain blah blah blah. We are just thankful for the 2" we've gotten this summer.
Correcting my data, by satellite observations, it is expanding S 5.5 Km per year since 1980...
(90 to 100 km during the 17-year period)
Link
Gnite all..
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Thanks for the links sunlinepr :)
NOAA news for the which named were officially retired in 2005
Oh! Thank You, Thank You!
Gert doesn't sound like a woman name though. Storm names are alternated with gender. The last one was Franklin. Do thou also think that Gert doesn't sound like a woman name?
I still want to know who broke the satelite images.
The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.
TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 16.2mph(26k/h) on a heading of 353degrees(N)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Villagedale,NovaScotia 2days4hours from now
Copy&paste 28.0n62.2w-28.1n62.9w, 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, 28.6n63.1w-29.5n63.2w, 29.5n63.2w-30.9n63.4w, bda, 29.5n63.2w-43.51n65.54w, yhz, 22.3n58.0w, 22.8n59.0w, 24.0n59.8w, 25.7n59.7w, 28.0n59.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mappings (for 15August_12amGMT)
Not in reflective mode...but in reflective mood...Gert is the story of discussion, but for me over here in Port Charlotte...yesterday was 7th anniv. of Charley.
Anyhew, recalling it and reading the Hurricane Post Summary from the National Hurricane Center, it did not get any street cred in the Tropical Weather Outlook until it's passage in the leewards, where the pressure suddenly dropped 4 millibars, then they started giving more attention.
Anyhow, I mention it because we got a wave tracking toward the leewards that is not getting any street cred right now. Watch this one folks. The strong trough that brought Charley to Florida in 2004 will not be there, but a weakness will be in place next weekend and I think the eastern 2/3 of the Gulf should keep this wave in mind. Just my 2 cents...
It is the wave previously know of as 93L...It's makin a comeback...or at least trying too.
looks better than Gertrude.
It's not better organized than Gert, but it has started to pull itself together now. Typically not a fan of fast moving waves, but this one is different. As of yesterday, the wave was basically embedded in a very elongated trough extension that came se toward the wave from 92L. A.) Gert just ate 92 L and B.) this wave has now moved far enough along that it has broke free of that trough extension and begun to turn over onto itself. In addition, looking at the tradewinds in the eastern carribean, they look like they are slowing down. This might just start to get very interesting folks...
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