Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting KennyNebraska:


That is not what this says.

In my view its highly unlikely this system gets into the gulf. Rediculous ridge over texas should prevent much northward progression. Both the european and gfs global models take this into central america which looks like a good forecast to me at this time.

You should only be interested in Gert if you are a fisherman.

Making humor of calamity is the WORST form of Humor here.

Always

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gert
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

00Z ECWMF still has development of the African wave

Link

Goodmorning, Isnt the high going to slide more to the W, and cause a weakness in the central/northern GOM?

Quoting P451:


That depends what it's target is. Is it NOLA? If so, yes, DOOM has been declared.

Joking aside...

Out of curiosity, what do you see the hurricane forming from?

93L... and its not going to take a week according to the models.

Hmmm. Kinda interesting from Houston. Says the high may be moving west but the models show no relief. Guess we'll see. Any rain would be nice. :)

SHOULD
SEE THE RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...
THE AREA COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING US ANY BENEFICIAL
RAINS AND A MUCH NEEDED DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE DROUGHT AND THE
RECORD BREAKING SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.

Quoting ncstorm:
00Z ECWMF still has development of the African wave

Link

Been waiting all night for that to work. Lol. Looks like they still take a piece of that GOM front and bring it to TX. Would be nice if the ridge doesn't kill it. AGAIN.

Quoting P451:


DMax has already run it's course.
93L is highly unlikely to develop prior to the islands.
Therefore it's next window of opportunity is beyond 70W.
I think you can rest assured that a Cat 5 is not coming to the Cayman Islands.
Although we all know that won't stop you from predicting every cloud in the Atlantic to have a high chance of doing so.

Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.

re: 1917, AtHomeInTX --- it's this stuck pattern that makes me wonder if we're going to see any change from the weak tropical systems now appearing. If the pattern's stuck here, is it not stuck over Africa and the tropical Atlantic as well? Only thing I see noticeably different in the last 3 weeks is that suddenly we're not firing off major hurricanes in the EPAC. The African waves are still coming off looking amazing, then falling apart in the parched air over the ATL.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Been waiting all night for that to work. Lol. Looks like they still take a piece of that GOM front and bring it to TX. Would be nice if the ridge doesn't kill it. AGAIN.

if anything, we can say the ECWMF has been consistent in showing that piece of energy and thats saying a whole lot when it comes to the models lately..hopefully texas can get some relief in precip..

Quoting P451:


Was always intrigued by Hawaii's buffer zone. To get a hurricane they have to form to the south and come north through the islands.

I think there may have been one system on record that was a weak hurricane that made the trek and came in from the ESE.

Everything just rapidly dies off when it gets within a day or two of the Island from the ESE. Water temps are one thing but there always seems to be a pocket of strong shear that forms between the islands and the approaching storm as well.

Perhaps that's why the model runs seem to flat line at 145 longitude...low confidence of further westerly track?

the HH should fly in to 93L sometime soon they need to they are going to do it either east of the windwards or west of the windwards

For your tropical flavored listening pleasure while blogging:Link

Quoting OrchidGrower:
re: 1917, AtHomeInTX --- it's this stuck pattern that makes me wonder if we're going to see any change from the weak tropical systems now appearing. If the pattern's stuck here, is it not stuck over Africa and the tropical Atlantic as well? Only thing I see noticeably different in the last 3 weeks is that suddenly we're not firing off major hurricanes in the EPAC. The African waves are still coming off looking amazing, then falling apart in the parched air over the ATL.

I don't know if we're going to see this high back off or breakdown. I can hope so at some point. Although with La Nina supposed to come back could keep us dry through the winter. UGH! As far as the EPAC picking up, I think the MJO has been moving through making the environment more conducive for storms. And I think it's now coming into our basin too. May help getting things going in the Atlantic too.

Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gert
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

What the hell is that orange line, lol, and why is it coming over my house?

Obviously, that model is out of whack.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually he said he couldn't wait to see what Dmax would bring this morning and he knew it would look better and be reactivated. He did not say anything about a Cat 5 coming to Cayman and furthermore the current predicted paths DO bring it over or very near the Cayman Islands. No reason for you to continuously talk down to people.

yep

Quoting Patrap:

look at that Patrap 93L's convection is pushing all that dry air out of its way wow just look at it just completey gone that dry air is

Quoting ncstorm:


if anything, we can say the ECWMF has been consistent in showing that piece of energy and thats saying a whole lot when it comes to the models lately..hopefully texas can get some relief in precip..

Thanks. And you're right that does say something that it didn't drop the whole thing in the next model run. Lol. Guess we'll see if they hold on to developing that African wave now.

Quoting presslord:
For your tropical flavored listening pleasure while blogging:Link

Thanks Presslord...NICE,saved it in favorites. My teens will like this too...First day of school for them, yea! Another still at home til Thurs. Checking in here periodically for ex-93L. BBL reality calling....

writings on the wall for those who cant see it,almost exact same pattern as last yr.....2011 is 2010 tc season pt 2

Good morning to all. Looks like 93 is playing hide and go seek. Beautiful graphics guys.

According to the EMCWF,
The wave train might start with the wave that emerges off of Africa.

I see Gert is beginning to get going, it will be interesting to see if she makes a run at hurricane status, anyone have the latest microwave imagery?

morning again.

A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link

Quoting uptxcoast:
A science blog with Eric Berger

Link

This is getting ridiculous. Of course Houston has continued its 100-degree-day streak and could break the record set in 1980 today.

But that’s not the worst of it. The entire summer has, overall, been brutal.

First came June, with an average temperature of 86.2 degrees that ranked as the warmest on record in Houston according to the National Weather Service. July came in at 87.1 degrees, third warmest on record for Houston.

But August has been different altogether. This month’s average temperature is 90.6 degrees. Granted the month is only half over, but that is truly ridiculous. The warmest August on record, which occurred just last year, was 87.7 degrees. So this August has been very nearly 3 degrees warmer than any August on record.

Let’s put this another way. The typical August in Houston has an average temperature of 85.0 degrees. The warmest previous August, last year, was less than 3 degrees warmer than that.

Then there’s this August, which so far is an additional 3 degrees above the warmest ever August. Someone whose better at math than me could probably tell me how many standard deviations outside of the norm 90.6 degrees would be after 120 years of records.

Like I said, the weather we’ve had so far this month has been ridiculous. But wait, there’s more.

Galveston has the lengthiest record of weather data in this region, and its all-time record high overnight low temperature, 85 degrees, occurred a total of nine times between 1874 and 2010 according to the National Weather Service.

It has occurred nine times this summer, including seven days in a row ending Saturday. I don’t think we can blame the urban heat island effect for that one.

Link

Houston, you have a problem.......

Is 93L related to Emily ?

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Nice bunch of clouds, but they usually won't get named:

Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L looks poised to be the Non-Threat of the Season so far. Perhaps it can get some spin once it gets past the Eastern Caribbean, but until then I would not expect anything to pick up with 93L.

The prevailing winds in the Eastern Caribbean generally will prohibit a storm from developing.

Downcasting?

Good Morning. The peak of the CV season is still one month away and there is no reason, based on 7 storms so far, to think that it will be a below-average CV season. Once the MJO moves into the Atl. basin, we should see a higher frequency of viable CV waves coming off of Africa. Not everyone will develop of course but all we can do is watch and wait at this point; I am confident that we will see several "Hurricanes" this season.......... :)

Quoting PaulinJax:
Is 93L related to Emily ?

No, Emily came much earlier as a wave then 93L later

We'll have to see if that huge wave emerging off Africa can persist over water. It looks pretty good right now.

96L re-activated. Again. Far to the north, and moving away:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108151415
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 382N, 636W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 397N, 631W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 410N, 619W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,