Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:26 GMT le 17 août 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting angiest:


Because being bought drinks at a nightclub is absolutely horrible.
It goes beyond that...

Don't wanna clutter up the blog with NCAA talk, so hit me up on PM if you want to.

Edit: PM is down, lol.

1007mb in 18 hours.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Definitely hoping he sticks around...but who knows. Things aren't looking good at all especially with the NCAA "vowing to take a harder line on rules violators".


Glad to see Thug U in trouble for their actions. :-D

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also, in the midst of all the modeled doom, a path over the islands doesn't guarantee survival. While a bad thing for the islands, dissipation would be on the table for sure.


You know I looked at that and the first model (gfs) or two took the island of Hispaniola into account and diluted the storm. But now, it keeps it fairly strong all the way. Of course, once again, we are talking about a few, albeit respectable model and not even a real storm yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
How many trolls does it take to build a dog house?

Answer in a sec


....Are any of the trolls
Juvenile Fauxcuban Vermin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3. ADDITINOAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.

Additinoal??? What is additinoal??? Sounds like something the doctor issues you after a long night in Korea.
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2005. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Definitely hoping he sticks around...but who knows. Things aren't looking good at all especially with the NCAA "vowing to take a harder line on rules violators".


Because being bought drinks at a nightclub is absolutely horrible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey look, 93L is starting to look like a fetus... which probably means it's going to be classified soon.
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Also, in the midst of all the modeled doom, a path over the islands doesn't guarantee survival. While a bad thing for the islands, dissipation would be on the table for sure.
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Quoting Floodman:
How many trolls does it take to build a dog house?

Answer in a sec



10?


lol


sorry could not help it
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Anomalies in the Atlantic continue to rise:

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Quoting Floodman:
How many trolls does it take to build a dog house?

Answer in a sec


roflmbo...depends on how many of em we try to stick in it LOL
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1998. WxLogic
00Z GFS Init:

Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038


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1996. angiest
Quoting tropicfreak:


Is he going to try to blow 93L towards FL??


Build a tunnel for it.
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How many trolls does it take to build a dog house?

Answer in a sec
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Is he going to try to blow 93L towards FL??





no i dont think he is hes this there too check it out
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting wxmobilejim:
That is for the 20th so not tomorrow.



Thanks, yeah, I realize that. I should have better separated the two. I just added the recon as an FYI, the two are unrelated.
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1992. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
16.13N/76.66W
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
East Conus NH IR Loop


Link
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1990. 7544
this could become invest 97l at anytime now imo
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1989. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
wu-mail is down
ok l will be looking fot it later.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1988. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/AOI/XXL
MARK
13.89N/37.93W
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Patrap:
42 years ago tonight, Hurricane Camille roared ashore taking Lives and devastating the Gulf Coast.



Most important comment on this page.
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Quoting angiest:


Given that there isn't a TC yet, the overall pattern is what is important. I'm not ready to declare anyone out of the woods yet.


agree as i said, hasn't been declared yet so hard to tell...but still don't like the trending lol...they usually skip all over the place for the first week or so...gonna watch this one close...
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1985. Patrap
wu-mail is down
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1938 New York Hurricane:

Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i see JFV in a row boat checking it out whats ask him


Is he going to try to blow 93L towards FL??
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting wxmobilejim:
That is for the 20th so not tomorrow.


He's just stating that we should have an invest by tomorrow.
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1981. emcf30
I would have to admit, T.S Fernanda looks good

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lmaooo. Although this isn't gonna happen, I like the idea.

The 00z GFS should start running within the next few minutes. Let's see what happens...


Man I'm hurtin' dawg but I'm ridin' with them boys no matter what. I hope Golden sticks around - he's the one to bring us out of all this mess like Butch did.
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This blog is my heroine. #confessions
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Should have some model runs for the C-Atl AOI tomorrow.

Recon tentatively scheduled

3. ADDITINOAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.
That is for the 20th so not tomorrow.
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1977. MTWX
Quoting hcubed:


So what's your opinion on the DOW's (doppler on wheels)?

Useful?

Love it!! Very useful when you at tracking a tornado you cannot see due to rain.
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ok...time for bed...i hate having to be at work so early in the morning...but at least i am home b4 rush hour
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1975. angiest
Quoting tiggeriffic:


last 4-5 have been doing this within a few miles.. and i mean very few...long way out and 97L hasn't been declared so hard to tell but the trend is beginning to stick

Link


Given that there isn't a TC yet, the overall pattern is what is important. I'm not ready to declare anyone out of the woods yet.
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1974. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
42 years ago tonight, Hurricane Camille roared ashore taking Lives and devastating the Gulf Coast.

Did you send that E-mail by pigeon? I never got it. I know you had to use them back in the day...but you dont have to now :)
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iq-_FcTA7LM&feature= youtube_gdata_player
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Quoting mcluvincane:
I think admin should put a banner on the trolls handle saying "This is a dumb ass TROLL" Kinda like the Scarlet Letter. Don't ban them just brand them I say.
Lmaooo. Although this isn't gonna happen, I like the idea.

The 00z GFS should start running within the next few minutes. Let's see what happens...
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1971. Patrap
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, once or twice it was as far over as Mobile, but seems to have settled on FL and the east coast last several or more runs.


last 4-5 have been doing this within a few miles.. and i mean very few...long way out and 97L hasn't been declared so hard to tell but the trend is beginning to stick

Link
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Quoting smuldy:
Actually the last 10 runs of the GFS have all show an intense hurricane passing somewhere in the narrow window from Key West to the Bahamas. Its still 8-10 days out so this is in no way a sure thing but the run to run consistency has been extremely troubling.


Yup - agreed on both accounts.
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1967. smuldy
Quoting angiest:

GFS has shown as far west as SW Lousiana, and more than once in the Mobile area, as I recall.  I haven't caught enough east coast runs (most of those seem to be when I can't look at it) to now how far north.
Actually the last 10 runs of the GFS have all show an intense hurricane passing somewhere in the narrow window from Key West to the Bahamas. Its still 8-10 days out so this is in no way a sure thing but the run to run consistency has been extremely troubling.
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1966. scott39
Quoting tiggeriffic:


wiki had this...one of few worse than 1900 Galveston Tx

Great Hurricane of 1780Main article: Great Hurricane of 1780
The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as the Hurricane San Calixto II, is the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Well over 25,000 people died when the storm passed through the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean between October 10 and October 16. The hurricane struck Barbados with wind gusts possibly exceeding 200 mph (320 km/h), before moving past Martinique, Saint Lucia, and Sint Eustatius; thousands of deaths were reported on each island. Coming in the midst of the American Revolution, the storm caused heavy losses to British and French fleets contesting for control of the area. The hurricane later passed near Puerto Rico and over the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic, causing heavy damage near the coastlines, and ultimately turned to the northeast before being last observed on October 20 southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The death toll from the Great Hurricane alone exceeds that for any other entire decade of Atlantic hurricanes, and is substantially higher than that of the second-deadliest Atlantic storm, Mitch. The hurricane was part of the disastrous 1780 Atlantic hurricane season, with three exceptionally deadly storms occurring in the month of October.

This is terrible but interesting history. Ive heard these bad ones ages ago, storm surge and flooding mostly killed people. Not taking anything away from wind damage deaths.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1965. angiest
Storms that have passed within 65 nautical miles of the west end of Long Island:



Link
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Should have some model runs for the C-Atl AOI tomorrow.

Recon tentatively scheduled

3. ADDITINOAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.
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does it appear that 97L will be called soon? not much time for blogging today...and tomorrow will be even busier lol...TIA
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Quoting tropicfreak:


taz what do you think?



i see JFV in a row boat checking it out whats ask him
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
it looks to me that the wave and low has split the wave is pritty much on th 80W line and the low has slowed down and is at 15.9N 77.0W btw convection has started to fire up on 93L one spot at 15N 80W another at 14.5 76.5 just SSE of the COC (of where I put the COC) and other small areas around the area these where just some to call a few


BREATHE!!!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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