Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:26 GMT le 17 août 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I can't seem to find the answer to this question...In one Atlantic Hurricane Season, what is the latest the first Hurricane formed? TIA

2002's Gustav was that season's first hurricane; it was named on September 8, and became a hurricane on September 11. That was the latest first hurricane since 1941's Hurricane Two, which became a hurricane on September 18th.

(1941 was an odd year; the first TS didn't form until September 11, and the season was over on October 22. But in that time frame, the record was 6-4-2...and three of those hurricanes were in existence on the same date [September 23rd]).
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i kid you not about this, there wasnt aa cloud in the sky and then it just got real dark and big lightning bolts are poppin....


Btw rushisaband, dont be shy ask questions and they will be answered and tell us some if you want
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Is anyone checking buoy readings?
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Quoting scooster67:
Its you:)

But who could blame you. I would be delusional if I had to suffer through your drought. If we are lucky 93L will stay disorganized and head up into South Central Texas.

Is this called Texas-Casting?


lol...yeah it has definitely been HOT and DRY!!

I am by no means wishing a major hurricane to come my way (close to LA border) but we could use a good rain maker as well as the rest of Texas.
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So basically,we are waiting on a tropical wave out by 35W to form into a Tropical Cyclone,with a tracking cone anywhere from the eastern GOM to Eastern Seaboard track? With higher % vicinity of Florida track? Would this be correct?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do people really think it will take a few hours (3-4 hours) for 93L to work its MLC down to the surface, get it well-defined, and close it off?

Come on now...
12 hours. See what happens at 5 a.m., IMO.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
I can't seem to find the answer to this question...In one Atlantic Hurricane Season, what is the latest the first Hurricane formed? TIA
coolie, there's an excellent FAQ at the NHC website that has all these little goodies on it. I know I've looked this one up before, and it's somewhere around the 28th or so. Andrew was just coming together around this time 19 years ago.
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting Grothar:
Its get'en hot in here. So take ...........
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Latest microwave pass suggests a cyclonic circulation near 15.5N 75.1W

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looks like 93L is heading for the gulf
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ugh...



Yet another area of interest from a frontal boundary. I think we've had more frontal systems this year than we've had in the last couple of years. Let's see...

*Bret
*Cindy
*Franklin

Last year we only had TD 5.

Interesting.
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Quoting Pipejazz:
blog always goes bonkers after PRWeathercenter enbeds the YouTube videos.
That's why I have him on ignore. I love the guy, but I can't take having the blog interrupted 2, 3 times a day. And whatever code it is that's causing the problem, he's not fixing it. I don't get the same reaction from other bloggers posting vids. [shrugs]

And no, I'm not in a position to change to Firefox or Chrome at this time.... would've if I could've...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting rushisaband:
good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here


Welcome to the blog!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Is it me or do things seem rather "slow" for August?
Just seems there should be more activity now.
Its you:)

But who could blame you. I would be delusional if I had to suffer through your drought. If we are lucky 93L will stay disorganized and head up into South Central Texas.

Is this called Texas-Casting?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Levi, How are things looking? Been off for a while. Should things start to pick up soon? Seems not much is happening at the moment.


The MJO is coming back to the Atlantic just in time for the peak of the hurricane season, so I would expect things to pick up quite a bit over the next couple of weeks.

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Quoting rushisaband:
good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here


we need a good newbie whos not a troll havent had one thats really posted a lot... WELCOME TO THE RANKS SOLDIER
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Quoting rushisaband:
good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here


Welcome.
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good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Is it me or do things seem rather "slow" for August?
Just seems there should be more activity now.

It's you. ;-)

--We're four storms ahead of last year on this date, and in fact just two behind 2005. (and we'll likely see at least two more in the next week);

--We've already had as man named storms than all of 1997. In fact, we've had as many named storms as, or more than, 16 of the past 60 seasons.

--The seventh named storm doesn't usually appear until September 16th, so we're a month ahead of that (and the ninth named storm--which I believe we'll see this week--doesn't statistically appear until October 4th).

--Since 1995--the start of the "active" period in the tropics--August has seen 3.7 named storms, so we're nearly there with the busiest half of the month still to go. (The July average since 1995 has been 1.7; this year had three. The June average has been 0.7; this year we had one.)

Yes, it's true, they've all been Little Leaguers so far. But there's little doubt that a month from now things will look a whole lot different.
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models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only
and do not depict final outcome to any one single event
things can and will change


KOTG
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Quoting Grothar:
New wave?




Better?



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do people really think it will take a few hours (3-4 hours) for 93L to work its MLC down to the surface, get it well-defined, and close it off?

Come on now...


I think i can say this for the both of us, that process will take a day at least... yall have no clue but its comein from teenagers take it with a grain of salt
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Although 93L looks good on satellite, circulation-wise, it's pretty disorganized. Kinda reminds me of Emily in that aspect.


Don't you dare bring up that storm!!!!
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
"What's the deal with all the blue in the N Bahamas, sir?"


it's called water.....


LOL!
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Although 93L looks good on satellite, circulation-wise, it's pretty disorganized. Kinda reminds me of Emily in that aspect.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The majority of the GEFS ensemble members, looking at the 500mb spaghetti plots, show a flat trough or even a ridge over the Northeast and across the Canadian Meritimes, a pattern favorable for Southeastern United States landfalls.

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I can't seem to find the answer to this question...In one Atlantic Hurricane Season, what is the latest the first Hurricane formed? TIA
Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do people really think it will take a few hours (3-4 hours) for 93L to work its MLC down to the surface, get it well-defined, and close it off?

Come on now...




it will take a lest other day may be 2 if it dos not run in too land 1st too close of its low
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Quoting Levi32:


Again, the operational run will not necessarily show what the ensemble members show. The ECMWF operational has been jumping back and forth between showing a hurricane and an open wave. Consequently, the weaker solution resulted in a more westerly path on those runs.


Hi Levi, How are things looking? Been off for a while. Should things start to pick up soon? Seems not much is happening at the moment.
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Quoting Levi32:


Again, the operational run will not necessarily show what the ensemble members show. The ECMWF operational has been jumping back and forth between showing a hurricane and an open wave. Consequently, the weaker solution resulted in a more westerly path on those runs.


Thanks Levi! If we happen to get a 973mb off the florida coast, I will bring up that long lost ghost image..LOL!
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Quoting presslord:


I wouldn't lose a lotta sleep over any of it...


not losing sleep yet...will wait for a cone to start doing that lol...but it is keeping me from making reservations that far ahead for Edisto Camp Grounds...will wait just a little more till i do that
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Do people really think it will take a few hours (3-4 hours) for 93L to work its MLC down to the surface, get it well-defined, and close it off?

Come on now...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



no need too post any thing am looking at the HH reports and at this time there not finding any thing close


were talking like barely a surface circulation at all
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Quoting Grothar:
img src="">
I see on that model run that a strong low is already over africa about to come off.Could it be a Julia part two thing?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


SUP Press? I don't like lots of the models right now...looking like a possibly messed up Labor day weekend....BLAH


I wouldn't lose a lotta sleep over any of it...
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Quoting ncstorm:


so I have to ask, did the ECWMF have a glitch in the run? this does not even say a western track scenario as in the operational run? I hate to beat a dead horse, but the image I saw depicted a 973mb off the florida east coast.


Again, the operational run will not necessarily show what the ensemble members show. The ECMWF operational has been jumping back and forth between showing a hurricane and an open wave. Consequently, the weaker solution resulted in a more westerly path on those runs.
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Quoting presslord:


What's the deal with all the blue in the N Bahamas, sir?


SUP Press? I don't like lots of the models right now...looking like a possibly messed up Labor day weekend....BLAH
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Quoting weatherh98:


What part of the low does it have can you post somethinmg



no need too post any thing am looking at the HH reports and at this time there not finding any thing close
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With all the troubles waves have been having this year when it comes to development I'm a little conserative that our african wave will even turn into a hurricane.Some of the models run it into the carribean islands before even doing much with it.I'm going off somewhere else where I'll actually get some help.Since when did the blog turn into an "every man for himself" type gig?
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Quoting Grothar:


What's the deal with all the blue in the N Bahamas, sir?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



olny if it can close off that low

93L will have a closed low between now and 9pm
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Tazmanian:



olny if it can close off that low


What part of the low does it have can you post somethinmg
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img src="">
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say 93L becomes a TD/or TS at 11pm tonight


I say there is a High chance, near 100%, that you are wrong, due to the fact that 93L doesn't have a surface circulation at all, much less closed and/or well-defined.

Sorry.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
I am convinced that this year CONUS will not go unscathed. The clock is ticking for CV season to yield impacts to the Carribean, Bahamas, and the US.


cape verde season just started its only 8/17
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761. wpb
gfs has hisponola crossing then recovery path off fla east coast to the sc coast inland.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say 93L becomes a TD/or TS at 11pm tonight



olny if it can close off that low
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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