Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:26 GMT le 17 août 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2860 - 2810

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

2860. angiest
Quoting USAFwxguy:


That is a wonderful place, from what I hear.


Matagorda Bay is relatively undeveloped (there is plenty of development along some of its arms, notably Tres Palacios Bay and Lavaca Bay, which has two important ports). IIRC, Matagorda Island is a good example of what a barrier Island is supposed to look like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
good morning....so 93l appears to be in the TD stage...looks better this AM than yesterday. Since it is moving too quickly and the ridge is blocking the GOM, there is no chance of it taking a more WNW or NW route, correct?



Correct..........i was hoping the big high over Texas was going to regress West a little faster.....but, that is not happening yet........NO MOISTURE to Texas with this one.......SORRY!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2858. ncstorm
Quoting angiest:


The one bright spot in this drought, I can count on one hand the number of skeeters I have seen around Houston all year.


Oh I would welcome that bit of good news myself..its terrible here and the knats (not sure if I am spelling that right) that come with the skeeters aint no better eithier..
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
D4 has declined

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Remember no matter what the forecast from NOAA was in May, It only takes one land-falling Hurricane to destroy your life as you know it now. Be prepared and not scared.
Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
2853. angiest
Quoting ncstorm:


Good Morning:) no rain in sight for TX yet..


The one bright spot in this drought, I can count on one hand the number of skeeters I have seen around Houston all year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2849. 7544
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


for three days now the models show a strong hurricane somwhere over fla. we all said ahhh thats 10 days out as of today they still show this but now we are only 7 days out i do hope they tag this soon soo we can see the 97l model runs witch should all show this aiming toward the bahmmas stay tuned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2848. angiest
Quoting NavarreMark:


Matagorda Bay.


Sounds good. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L continuing to develop more convection and becoming better organized. Should be a TD soon, and if it does slow down, Central America needs to keep a close eye on this system...could pull some surprises.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2846. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Yeah. Good Morning NC. :)


Good Morning:) no rain in sight for TX yet..
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
2845. angiest
Does anyone here use Google Earth in Linux to view recon data? I tried yesterday but the recon data never loaded. Models, etc, do work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cloudburst2011:



your change is the big high sitting over you guys for the past month will move west to the 4 corners area..the rain chances will be good for you guys and also a cool front is forecast to head down your way next week...
I would Love a Cloudy and 98 degree day, alot better than sunny and 107.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Original Version:
Rain, rain go away
Come again another day
little children want to play
Rain, rain go away.
Texas Version:
Rain, rain come this way
Come again the next day
Little children are thirsty
Rain rain come this way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2838. angiest
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Well, now we can get good model runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2837. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Good mornin' all!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2834. xcool
let game begins 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2831. xcool
angiest welcome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108181330
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2828. angiest
Quoting odinslightning:



maybe a record breaker for the smallest known hurricane on record diameter wise? lol


The drought would eat something that small alive. ;P

By the way, shouldn't you have chosen to be Gungnir instead? That is a much more well-known one of my .. er .. Odin's weapons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2827. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like they are getting ready for 97L, just deleted the last 97L.

invest_DELETE_al972011.ren 18-Aug-2011 13:29 1.0K


We were on the right track this AM on this topic.
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Quoting USAFwxguy:


does it indicate a basic dead-set heading in that direction? I agree that Honduras should be missed to the north.


Select SHIP, DSHP or LGEM from this plot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2824. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
2823. angiest
Quoting xcool:
angiest- Some bring in to Gulf


Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting odinslightning:



maybe a record breaker for the smallest known hurricane on record diameter wise? lol

I did say 'cute'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
WOW this surprised me look how far inland Collier County could be affected in a worst case storm surge senario Scary Stuff!!!
back in the sixties my dad use to own land in marcoisland it was cheap. sold it a couple yrs later fearing a major loss due to hurricane damage. that has turned out to be a big mistake so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kshipre1:
not to touch on this topic again but if someone does disagree with me, please let me know.

does anyone see a strong enough trough about mid to late week next week?

you would think even Dr. Masters would have mentioned something about that if it were the in case (in relation to potential future Irene and landfall threat)

I reiterate again....if the pattern does set up the way it is supposed to about a week to 10 days from now and if the models into next week continue to converge on a Florida hit..... THEN FLORIDA IS IN TROUBLE no matter how you look at it

not trying to jump ahead or freak anyone out of course :)


Hi. Me again. And I don't disagree with you. I think Florida should definitely pay attention and prepare. As far as the trough goes. This seems to explain the situation. Lot better than I can.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 Link


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE
MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST...AND A CORRESPONDING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA
WOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD BE STEERED MORE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...A SITUATION THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING
AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY WANTED TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND NOW THE NEW EURO HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...AND
DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS JUST OUTSIDE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
FOR NOW EXPECT TEMPS..ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
POPS WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND UPWARDS BACK TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2819. xcool
Something to keep an eye on..Euro Ensemble mean and gfs Ensemble mean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like they are getting ready for 97L, just deleted the last 97L.

invest_DELETE_al972011.ren 18-Aug-2011 13:29 1.0K
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure what is happening but a major weather pattern change is coming to Texas and soon. The 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows normal temperatures for Texas instead of 10 to 15 degrees above normal. I will take the relief, not sure about any chances of rain but this is the first positive news I have seen in months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
Inspite of the higher chances of development stated by the NHC, 93L looks in poor condition this morning. There is no evidence of a low level circulation in satellite imagery and the system which had a strong circulation aloft over the last few days has had the mid level low disintegrate overnight. This is why it no longer has the cyclonic appearance on satellite pictures and looks more like a shapeless blob of convection now.

I find it hard to see the recon finding a closed circulation today ....

You can't find the LLC because it might be beneath the convection mass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning....so 93l appears to be in the TD stage...looks better this AM than yesterday. Since it is moving too quickly and the ridge is blocking the GOM, there is no chance of it taking a more WNW or NW route, correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2811. MahFL
A wider view...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC preliminary track on 93L is just north of the coast of Honduras.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2860 - 2810

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
69 ° F
Ciel dégagé