Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.
The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.
Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.
Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.
Jeff Masters
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Business is slow here this summer.
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
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That's what I was thinking as well because the system appears to be just beginning to wind up.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
MY THINKINGS EXACTLY, this is the reasoning behind why i posted to Mississippiwx, though there is still a possibility of a surface circulation, though 93L would end up developing much slower with it's MLC, and LLC not aligned...
Coordinates: 14.7833N 74.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.9 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 322 meters (~ 1,056 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.8 mb (~ 29.94 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 132° at 15 knots (From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: -7.8°C (~ 18.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Goodnight all.
Yeah, there isn't one that far south.
It rains all the freaking time here.
Call the pickle,,weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...
if it has a close low then yes
Recon. needs to go north and see what is going on above 15N.
Yes. Upper-level features in the tropics are something that global models struggle with, and only so much can be discerned about the future from looking at current water vapor imagery.
Taz, does it have an "eye" yet. LOL.
Night mate! keep those pesky trolls at bay.
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."
They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
lol
I'm not that stupid. But they still should go to the north and see what they find there...because there isn't anything south of 15N.
will be interesting to see the timing of this along with how strong and big the next big storm (Irene?) could be
10 consecutive factual TWO.
What else would you expect them to say? Lol.
For the Lost and the suffered, 42 years ago tonight.
Hello!!!! it's in it right now, geez, open Google earth and watch it yourselves. LOL.
Why didn't they wait till recon was finished before doing a TWO?
It's fact. Really, grow up and quit being ignorant.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS MINIMAL...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM GREG. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Yeah, despite my beliefs earlier, that statement is correct so far.
Yes. I didn't say it wasn't factual.
Nothing. I was not bashing them...I was just stating a fact.
And I didn't say you didn't. LOL
maybe cause FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN had to run to the lew
Well, I won't bore the blog by once again responding to each item in this comment--[cue wild applause]--so I'll just say this: there's not a single issue you raised that hasn't been thoroughly addressed, responded to, and rendered scientifically invalid time and time again. WU mail me if you'd like more.
G'Day!
Even the pathetic looking 92L had 40% for a couple days.
Remember what models were initially predicting with 92L and 93L..!!
There are a number of natural mechanisms that can explain the little warming we saw 10 years ago without inventing a crisis that gives gov more power and more of our hard earned monies.
Just my 2 cents but I think this is all about power and money and has very little to do with climate.
Looks to have a LITTLE more convection then it did yesterday.
Houston - 1895
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