TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The 1010mb mean isobar is closed over the eastern gulf though, which may indicate the preferred location on the ensemble.
Hmm...I see all four active systems/invests on the navy page.
Small system though (97L)
wish navy site you looking at?
i all way ues this one
Link
and on that one all i this see is 97 99L and are TS
Excerpt:
IN THE TROPICS...WE ARE STILL MONITORING NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE USED THEIR
COORDINATED POINTS.
Roatan in the crosshairs.
LinkWVLoopHarvey
I don't think there's an island that that path doesn't have 97L hitting.
I had to exit out of it. I got a security warning or something.
Conditions at Aug 19, 2011 - 04:00 PM EDTAug 19,
2011.08.19 2000 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.82 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
you have too hit confrom or some in i forgot how it work
Link
It must be cocktail hour.
97L is looking a bit parched.
LOL. What a deviation.
Things they would not teach me of in college
I can see the destiny you sold
Turned into a shining band of gold"
Actually what is there in that part of the Caribbean is deep warm water, which is the best thing for a growing tropical cyclone. What happens is that the shallow water gets churned up easier, thus upwelling the colder water from the depths.
Are we looking at the same system? It looks quite healthy.
it's 5 o'clock somewhere
Hope they get the rain they want without too much in the way of destructive winds....
Good to see you.... Keep us posted, and stay safe!
Was like that here yesterday... great stuff!
I agree, I think tonight's DMAX will set the tone of this storm. If it doesn't strengthen before reaching the Eastern Caribbean, then it stays weak. If it starts pulling those giant arms in before it reaches the bathtub, hold onto your britches.
This one could be a monster in the making. A breathtaking giant like Gilbert, and the first true mega storm of the century.
Maybe it's doomcasting, but after the frail season we've had so far, my mind is numb from watching this sick little parade.
Oh I see.
Look at that cold front on day number 7.
I think I married her sister.
i have the link but am not posting it
it seen like am bee posting it a lot has of late and it seem like no one no how too bookmark it
Unfortunately it is 2:35 in the afternoon some other place.
Not really, at least not on water vapor loop it isn't.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
A hurricane can traverse both Hispanola and Cuba and still be the costliest hurricane in American history up that time.
With possible apologies to Ike.
Johns Island!!!!! My homeboy!!!!!!!
Come on people!
(~ 29.67 inHg)
Viewing: 1201 - 1251
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