TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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180 hours out hurricane over the gulf heading for anything between new orleans and tallahasee
True but I meant for 97L :P
I wonder if that means I'm ready for lunch? lol
Destroys my house. I can finally move.
We just had another top ten warmest July globally, the upper layers are record cool globally & have been setting those in pace with the warming on the surface. This was expected with climate change. Joe Bastardi talked of cooling in the mid levels which was top 3 warmest last month. Cool aloft & warm below also causes instability not hinders it.
The very strong La Nina we just came out of has cleaned the air of moisture. It's dry. But as expected when it rains~ climate change is making it pour & the rest is left really dry..& after La Nina places like Texas & Africa are pouring sand into the sky, suppressing everything til the Pacific turns warm & adds moisture to the sand which becomes the seeds for the rain & storms again..
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 708 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE TUTT WILL YIELD TO BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES EXPECTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY NOONTIME ON SUNDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE FLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
LOW LEVELS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE ISLANDS LATER ON SUNDAY/EARLY ON MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS VERY BULLISH ON ITS EVOLUTION...DOWNPLAYING THE IMPACT DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CURRENTLY HAVING ON THIS SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND AS A RESULT FAVOR A SLOWER EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH A SLOWER RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER SQUALLY WEATHER AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RAINFALL MAXIMA ON MONDAY IS TO PEAK AT FOUR TO SIX INCHES...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
Link
Despite the food references lol, I have a feeling 08L could spin up fairly quickly.
Nice maximum potential winds there in the eastern half of the Gulf... :X
though I wonder if the circulation problems have been resolved...
Link
I haven't caught every single run, but GFS doesn't seem to have been that bullish on the early strength of 97L for awhile. It doesn't seem to become a TD for a couple of more days or so, in general, and stays fairly weak for awhile.
Well, the Florida panhandle is safe, if that's where it's saying it's going right now!
Either that, or the GFS gets major bragging rights for nailing the track 10 days out.
Hi Aqua
Not yet on the EEEKK!
But I think someone colored my glasses with an Orange Crayon :O)
Looks like it.
It first showed the FL Panhandle at least 2-3 days ago. That's becoming rather common.
I did not follow every run either so I am not sure which run they may be referring to.....
I just thought it was funny because I never really saw the center as far south as they had it to begin with.
Saw that... it really comes over Hispaniola with a limp before it gets there it looks like.
USAFwxguy, where do you live? I went to high school with a gal that's married to a USAF Meteorologist.
euro 12z isn't out yet.
the 00z euro showed east coast of FL being affected.
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