TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No, the GFS has a poleward bias, in that it tends do overdo the strength and amplification of large scale troughing.
In this case it's probably correct, though, in that the greatest threat is to the Florida peninsula and the central panhandle.
The 7.21.2011 vintage/
I'm feeling pretty safe.
132kts how strong is that tia
ok, but how do you get the panhandle out of all the runs shifting east continually?
They are flipflopping back and forth no track is nailed down this early...Alot of things will occur over the next few days...Center repositioning...land interaction...certain longwave patterns not coming to pass...lots of uncertainly
A little over 150 mph.
just type out "convert 132 knots to miles per hour" in google and it will give the answer. Google will do most any conversion if you type it out.
Yes, I think it will be a surprise to all to see this jump north.
It's low-end cat5,exactly 158mph
I wouldn't say the shift is a continual one. The trick is to average them, which to me leads to the central or eastern panhandle (after the peninsular crossing) -- most likely the latter.
With the right adapter cables we can give you full HDMI capabilities!
Anything is possible with adapter cables...and duct tape...even pink duct tape. ;)
How are things in coonass land Kori?
Hey, aren't you a coonass too? ;)
They're fine, though. Same as always, really.
There it is, the next trough. That's what the models see.
Monroe is too far north to be a coonass...check this out.
Fair
58°F
(14°C) Humidity: 47 %
Wind Speed: calm
Barometer: 29.98 in (1010.90 mb)
Dewpoint: 38°F (3°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
January weather for you.:^)
I've always assumed the latter, but I dunno for sure.
Hey, watch the language! Never know when we little kids are lurking ;-)
thanks how strong is that gt
Texas continues to bake.
Dome of Death may shift West a bit but only enough to allow systems tropical in nature to cause havoc to our friends out East.
If little kids are up now we need to beat their parents....btw....isn't it about 6 hours past your bedtime?
That doesn't stop them from immigrating that far northward, now does it? ;)
And that's entirely too cold for me atm. Winter can wait!
the unwritten rule is anything north of I-10 is not a coon ass.
edit still a long way out by no means saying its a sure thing just noting its a troubling trend
A true coonass cannot survive north of lake Pontchartrain.
19/2345 UTC 13.6N 50.6W TOO WEAK 97L
20/0545 UTC 13.8N 52.5W TOO WEAK 97L
A bit of a Northerly component to our Invest-That-Would.
Shhh, my parents think I'm asleep.
Winds up to 35 mph
AL, 97, 2011082006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 530W, 30, 1007, DB
Viewing: 3401 - 3451
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