TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.
Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.
The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.
As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.
Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.
There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.
Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 12 153N 585W 38
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 24 163N 620W 48
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 36 171N 649W 58
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 48 180N 672W 69
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 60 187N 693W 62
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 72 194N 713W 43
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 84 201N 733W 43
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 96 210N 753W 45
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 108 218N 769W 48
AL 97 2011082012 03 DSHP 120 227N 782W 46
Sad to say, but this is true for many areas that can be affected by hurricanes. When I stopped at Walmart last night they have the front of the store filled with bins of marked down snacks and canned foods of the great value brand. But when given the choice of even buying these against paying for food for this week or paying a bill...
Yup that is where I am living around. :)
This would not be a great track!
It reminds me a bit of Katrina who was originally supposed to go to Florida.
These are the BAM Models
it really is depressing!! making a choice between survival and safety.
I DON"T know take your pick as to which is correct..........impossible to know.
Sometimes difficult to get parts in the Keys, hope the part finally arrives today.
000
NOUS62 KKEY 160914
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 16 2011 09:14:29
KBYX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO LOSS OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE RDA AND THE RPG.
000
NOUS62 KKEY 161824
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 16 2011 18:24:32
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING TOMORROW. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - UL
RICH
000
NOUS62 KKEY 170349
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 17 2011 03:49:57
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.
000
NOUS62 KKEY 171748
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 17 2011 17:48:35
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
SOME PARTS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT ADDITIONAL PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED WHICH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOME
S AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.
000
NOUS62 KKEY 190032
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 19 2011 00:32:59
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE HOPEFUL THE RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - ULRICH
000
NOUS62 KKEY 190100
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 19 2011 01:00:30
***CORRECTED TO CHANGE `THURSDAY` TO `FRIDAY`*** THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART THAT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE HOPEFUL THE RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - ULRICH
000
NOUS62 KKEY 191807
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 19 2011 18:07:59
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART, BUT UNFORTUNATELY ITS SHIPMENT HAS BEEN DELAYED. THE PART SHOULD ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TECHNICIANS HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR OPERATIONAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
N UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOU
R PATIENCE. - ULRICH
Any of those tracks makes 97L weak, right?
Until we get a center it's, going to flip back and forth. We learned from you Know who, that just because it says your safe, 12 hours later you can be smack dab in the cone of confusion.
And the mindset that it's just those on welfare, etc. Many people live check to check even with two people working. Single parents with children who have good jobs, but the cost of everything makes it so difficult. A friend is a single mother with a deadbeat ex. She's an EMT and works crazy long hours. Her furnace broke and now she heats their trailer with electric heaters. Sad, but for her a hurricane means the chance of losing her home as it's surrounded by large pine trees, but it also means a ton of overtime and more money. But she doesn't prepare because she doesn't have the money for it.
Anyway, I'm out for a bit... will definitely be on later, prolly closer to 11 a.m.
Well isn't that funny how you ONLY pointed out......Republicans........Clinton, Carter.......LOL...WE UNDERSTAND THO........
BTW.......Looks like 97L is about to form a Surface Low!
<-- eyes coffee, I need another cup. Sorry, I meant not supposed to go west.
Well one thing is for sure according to this 97 will be a FL storm
Yeah! intersting how the minor difference in the position of the high makes a major difference in the projected path. We might be sharing this storm, Tampaspin! And I say that with worry not excitement.
wow looks like CHarley all over again
They really are not doing much different then they do every year........So much talk about the bad models.....this has been a year of rather weak ill defined system....I think the models have performed as expected with the exception of 1 system.
Did it really stay hurricane strength that far inland? Jackson, MS got sustained hurricane force winds? Maybe not considering they were on the west side. But places directly east of Jackson, MS? Just curious.
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