Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:40 GMT le 22 août 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1. watercayman 14:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Many thanks Jeff Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 77

2. sigh 14:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Irene is not a fast-moving hurricane. That’s going to increase the impact considerably. It looks like it will have a good 36+ hours to pile up storm surge as it approaches the coast, and as it moves inland areas will experience a good 24 hours of heavy rainfall, which will likely cause serious flooding all the way up the eastern seaboard. Not good. Member Since: 13 septembre 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 62

3. trHUrrIXC5MMX 14:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Doc Member Since: 23 avril 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7890

4. seasntrees 14:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Doc! Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

5. ElConando 14:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thank you Dr. Masters a good read as always! Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

6. cruzinstephie 14:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks for the update Doc! Member Since: 31 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

7. islander101010 14:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
twc just mentioned the winds at those peaks in puertorico almost cat 3 Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2967

8. NOLALawyer 14:45 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting sigh: Irene is not a fast-moving hurricane. That’s going to increase the impact considerably. It looks like it will have a good 36+ hours to pile up storm surge as it approaches the coast, and as it moves inland areas will experience a good 24 hours of heavy rainfall, which will likely cause serious flooding all the way up the eastern seaboard. Not good. Oh, we will have to see if that comes to fruition. Member Since: 3 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

9. jnhouston 14:46 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Dr. Masters! Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

10. Patrap 14:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111405

11. niederwaldboy 14:48 GMT le 22 août 2011
I miss Angela, bring her back. Member Since: 31 janvier 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

13. Jax82 14:50 GMT le 22 août 2011
This is going to be an interesting week for the CONUS, Irene has the potential to be a very devastating hurricane and could hit the US as a Major. Hopefully wherever she blows people will adhere to warnings and evacuation orders. You can replace property, but you cant replace your life. Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

14. jeffs713 14:50 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting islander101010: twc just mentioned the winds at those peaks in puertorico almost cat 3 And those are mountaintop winds, which is similar to flight-level winds the HH find... So they aren't counted as "surface" winds for purposes of categorization of the storm. Member Since: 3 août 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

15. nash28 14:50 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting bigeasystormcaster: Looks like it might be a fish-storm from here on out. Not likely. Trough nowhere NEAR strong enough to erode the ridge to that extent. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

16. Txwxchaser 14:51 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: Keep those cool images coming Patrap....interesting to see the eye, even tho it's not visible to the naked eye...very informative to location etc....back to my closet... Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 296

17. ncstorm 14:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8423

18. NOLALawyer 14:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting bigeasystormcaster: Looks like it might be a fish-storm from here on out. Welcome to ignore. My third addition today! Member Since: 3 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

19. popartpete 14:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Dr. Masters. Can someone tell me the technical term for the addition of the forward momentum and the addition of that number to the winds in right front quadrant. Thanks. Member Since: 10 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 415

20. Patrap 14:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111405

21. bwi 14:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
My concern in the southern middle atlantic area is what direction the storm or its remnant takes after it hits 35 north. If it's due north or NNE and stays west of the Chesapeake Bay and Delaware River, lots of potential for tree damage and power outages plus some coastal flooding in the DC/Baltimore/Philly areas. These areas heavily populated, but not prepared for tropical storms at all. Our biggest concern is an Isabel-like track, where even low-end tropical storm force winds caused widespread week-long power outages in DC area. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

22. Kowaliga 14:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
NHC 1100 due out now... anyone want to bet on a big jump to the right? Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 211

23. CaneHunter031472 14:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting jeffs713: And those are mountaintop winds, which is similar to flight-level winds the HH find... So they aren't counted as "surface" winds for purposes of categorization of the storm. Well that sucks because my house in Puerto Rico is located in one of the Highest spots in the island. Guess I'm sending my parnets to check soon if the roads are passable. Member Since: 1 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

24. Patrap 14:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111405

26. DFWjc 14:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
I had to work late last night, when did it classified a Hurricane? Member Since: 19 juillet 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 967

27. RedrumATL 14:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: That's the first look I've seen this morning. Well preserved and higher north than I thought it would be at this time. This will be interesting to say the least. Member Since: 17 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

28. bohonkweatherman 14:55 GMT le 22 août 2011
Unfortunately this storm will be forced into the United States and impact several states. My experiences being west of a storm have not been that bad, wind and rain. Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

29. bohonkweatherman 14:56 GMT le 22 août 2011
Hurricane Irene at 5 am. Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

30. txag91met 14:56 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). Yep...nailed Katrina too as did the UKMET. Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

31. dmh1026 14:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Doc! Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

32. fmbill 14:58 GMT le 22 août 2011
TWC must have received the NHC update before everyone else. They are reporting a shift to the east. Member Since: 27 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

33. listenerVT 14:58 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks, Doc! Here in the NE, we're keeping an eye on this storm. I am encouraging everyone I know in the New England area not to be complacent. This is where social networking can save lives and livelihoods. Member Since: 11 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4777

35. LBAR 14:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
She's still a bit oddly-shaped, so hopefully she won't be able to pull any moisture around on the south quadrant with Hispaniola there. I'm not liking the track as I live in Charleston. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 214

36. Patrap 14:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111405

37. islander101010 14:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
just when she looks alittle feeble you look again new ball of convection dried out here in e.cen fl. yesterday was the first day in a month no threat of thunderstorms Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2967

38. MoltenIce 15:00 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting NOLALawyer: Welcome to ignore. My third addition today! What's up with trolls polluting this blog? Weather is certainly not something trolls are fond of. Member Since: 11 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

39. NICycloneChaser 15:00 GMT le 22 août 2011
Thanks Doc Irene back at 80mph, 988mb. Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1957

41. JNCali 15:00 GMT le 22 août 2011
So the cone(fusion) of uncertainty is still showing a southerly track capable of depositing Irene in the GOM.. I guess folks from Texas to North Carolina need to prepare to prepare.. Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

42. Jax82 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
Hot off the press! Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

43. Titoxd 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
Up to 70 knots… 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221457 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER * ALL OF HAITI HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 67.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT.......160NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 67.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: 28 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

44. FSUstormnut 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
SC landfall Major.. nhc Member Since: 10 juin 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 314

46. medic2luv 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 187

47. AllStar17 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
Projected major hurricane now. Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

48. ncstorm 15:01 GMT le 22 août 2011
Well folks..we have a "M" Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8423

49. MoltenIce 15:02 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting medic2luv: Ah, the dreaded "M" dot. Member Since: 11 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

50. TropicalBruce 15:02 GMT le 22 août 2011
With a heading of 300 degrees as of 11 AM, it looks like Florida is more likely to dodge the bullet now, but at the expense of GA, SC and NC. This is being stated by a Floridian. Things are looking better here at this time. Member Since: 10 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 97

51. wpb 15:02 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Jax82: Hot off the press! old Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

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