Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:40 GMT le 22 août 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1051. xtremeweathertracker 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Notice how similar the 12Z GFDL and ECMWF models are when making their approach to Florida!! We definitely cannot rule out a direct Florida landfall at this point!! Notice how both models show the A/B high building back in rather strongly as Irene makes its approach to Florida. The exact strength of this high will be the deciding factor in track!!! Member Since: 31 mai 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 555

1052. violet312s 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting snow2fire: I hope this is a little helpful. Durham here. Very helpful post! Thank you Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 769

1053. AegirsGal 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Torgen: Figured we could use a little stress relief. :) Lmao!!!! +1000 Member Since: 2 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291

1054. atmoaggie 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting usa777: I can tell you first hand the winds were bad. I was in Bay St louis. The winds were screaming..a sound I will never forget. One of my wierdest memories from that day was me clinging to a tree, and seeing a cat in another tree and I could see that the cat was screaming and of course I couldn't hear it. It's crazy the little things you remember during a near death experience. I pray to god that this thing doesn't get to a cat 4 or 5 and makes landfall. Yep, when there are 1/2 mile wide, 10 mile long swaths of thousands of broken pine trees snapped ~15 feet above ground all over the area, the winds were bad enough... And you can still very easily pick out those swaths among the forested areas 6 years later. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1055. jfm1975 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Can someone PLEASE verify something I saw a bit ago... did ALL the model runs shift to miami suddenly..and we are really facing an absolute catastrophe..worse than andrew ? please tell me I was seeing things Member Since: 10 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

1056. ncstorm 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: school started for us in the Charleston area last week...this is gonna be an interesting week none the less...even our updates on the 8s has us blocked in red for friday watching the tropics...almost eerie in a way I think it should have all the days in this week marked "watching the tropics"..LOL..eerie is a very fitting word.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

1057. Bluestorm5 18:27 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: schools start here on thursday..but if Irene does what some of the models are predicting, school might be delayed for a while My school starts on Thursday as well. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3396

1058. interstatelover7165 18:28 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting wolftribe2009: I have a feeling Irene is going to be a LARGE storm Link It already is. Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1059. kshipre1 18:28 GMT le 22 août 2011
can someone confirm if the Bermuda High builds westward on Friday? Member Since: 12 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

1060. islander101010 18:28 GMT le 22 août 2011
on vis. looks like she sticking to the greater antillias moving west look for disorganization Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1061. PrivateIdaho 18:28 GMT le 22 août 2011
Forget these stupid models....What are the ants in south Fl doing today? Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1062. wpb 18:29 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: 12Z nogaps Shifted West insignificantly thanks for the grafic Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

1063. ncstorm 18:29 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5: My school starts on Thursday as well. I dont think you will be starting school on thursday..JMO.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8324

1064. nrtiwlnvragn 18:29 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting jfm1975: Can someone PLEASE verify something I saw a bit ago... did ALL the model runs shift to miami suddenly..and we are really facing an absolute catastrophe..worse than andrew ? please tell me I was seeing things No, see post 1008 Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8916

1066. Joshfsu123 18:29 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: 12Z nogaps Shifted West insignificantly That is actually a pretty big shift west from the earlier run (if the picture that is posted was correct). NOGAPS was one of the far right models but now it is more in agreement with the middle of the pack. Member Since: 6 juillet 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

1067. gugi182 18:29 GMT le 22 août 2011
Who thinks HURRICANE IRENE will have her name retired? Looking at the models residents from Jacksonville,FL up to Myrtle beach,SC should monitor this hurricane and possible major cat.3 or 4 in that vicinity by the end of the week. Member Since: 3 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 174

1068. tiggeriffic 18:30 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: I wouldn't get too excited about having Friday off just yet if I were you, kiddo... yeah right...they close at the thought of bad weather in Charleston county....if the ts winds are 185 miles from the center and it is to pass anywhere near us, they will call school because of the buses on the bridges...it is early in the week but have even heard from the schools they are already on alert due to the fact that our preschool is on the same weather closure procedure as Charleston county... Member Since: 16 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

1069. 7544 18:30 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker: Notice how similar the 12Z GFDL and ECMWF models are when making their approach to Florida!! We definitely cannot rule out a direct Florida landfall at this point!! Notice how both models show the A/B high building back in rather strongly as Irene makes its approach to Florida. The exact strength of this high will be the deciding factor in track!!! good obs thanks for pointing that out good call Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

1070. Dem86Mets 18:30 GMT le 22 août 2011
Once we have the G1V data in these models later tonight into tomorrow we will know for sure if Florida will be affected. Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1071. StormJunkie 18:30 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting GoWVU: Would not be surprised when I get to work tommorow, if the air base starts moving planes out of the Charleston area... Jut got done taking Tom Kaminicky's class at tech. He was out there for a while as a structures guy. Know him? Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

1072. Patrap 18:30 GMT le 22 août 2011
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks Irene Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1073. caymanray 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Interesting how active this blog has become. Thank you Dr. Masters for creating the best resource for real time analysis of tropical systems and an agregation point for so many experts and newbies alike. It appears that Irene has the potential to be one of the 10 most damaging storms in US history. A repeat of a storm like a Hugo could cause $30-50 billion in damage. There are modeled senarios where the damage caused by direct hit on Miami as a cat 4 or 5 or on NYC as a cat 3 exceed the $100 billion mark. I certainly hope and pray that none of these senarios verify. For reference the 10 most damaging storms in US history were. 1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $105,840,000,000 2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $45,561,000,000 3. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $27,790,000,000 4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,587,000,000 5. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $19,832,000,000 6. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $15,820,000,000 7. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,675 8. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $11,797,000,000 9. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $11,760,000,000 10. Betsy (FL/LA) 1965 3 $11,227,000,000 Irene appears to have the potential to make this list. However, much is uncertain at this time, The average track error is 250 miles at 5 days and that is from a mean forecast point. This storm also has the potential for 2 or even 3 landfall points. It is imposible to predict with presicion the path or intensity of a tropical storm 3 or more days out. As the chart illustrates damage is more correlated with storm path than with intensity. Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

1074. RitaEvac 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting jfm1975: Can someone PLEASE verify something I saw a bit ago... did ALL the model runs shift to miami suddenly..and we are really facing an absolute catastrophe..worse than andrew ? please tell me I was seeing things That was just one model Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

1075. gugi182 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
We could have 100 tropical storms in a season but it only takes 1 to chance the season completely good example ANDREW in 1992. Member Since: 3 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 174

1076. palmbaywhoo 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting RevInFL: Hi all. I saw the 2pm update and saw that TS force winds now extend out 185 miles. Seems all the weather forecasters in my area say I will be safe in East Central Florida,how far is Irene going to miss to the east of the peninsula? I mean 185 miles is pretty wide wind field. Who is saying this? I am hearing a bit of the opposite, but most of the newscasters focus on the Orlando area and you may be hearing that bias in their reporting (still think Orlando may see some TS force winds) Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

1077. WCSCTVCharleston 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker: Notice how similar the 12Z GFDL and ECMWF models are when making their approach to Florida!! We definitely cannot rule out a direct Florida landfall at this point!! Notice how both models show the A/B high building back in rather strongly as Irene makes its approach to Florida. The exact strength of this high will be the deciding factor in track!!! One is due east of west palm the other is SE of Miami how is that approach similar? Member Since: 19 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

1078. Dem86Mets 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Joshfsu123: That is actually a pretty big shift west from the earlier run (if the picture that is posted was correct). NOGAPS was one of the far right models but now it is more in agreement with the middle of the pack. I do believe this is the right picture, according to the time stamp it is. Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1079. Neapolitan 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: Yep, when there are 1/2 mile wide, 10 mile long swaths of thousands of broken pine trees snapped ~15 feet above ground all over the area, the winds were bad enough... And you can still very easily pick out those swaths among the forested areas 6 years later. I believe it. It's been 19 years this week since Andrew ripped through South Florida, and you can still see broken pine trees in many places. Some injuries take many years to heal... Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142

1081. kshipre1 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
nice post. that is exactly what I was wondering. this is the supposed pattern change that was talked about a couple of weeks ago. If (and this is a big if) the storm were to head straight to florida?! wow. that would be a major deviation from the carolinas and new england track! not saying it would or will happen but that is an awfully big high and no guarantee Irene will start making the NW then N turn based on the High to the north Member Since: 12 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

1082. xtremeweathertracker 18:31 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting kshipre1: can someone confirm if the Bermuda High builds westward on Friday? This is the HPC's forecast surface map for day 4!! Notice the Texas high has retreated to the 4 corners region and the A/B high building in rather strongly!!! Member Since: 31 mai 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 555

1083. thedawnawakening3 18:32 GMT le 22 août 2011
Certaintly a shot at five status is possible. Three days over the Atlantic Ocean is enough time, especially moving over 30C waters and ideal upper level atmospheric conditions present. Member Since: 29 juillet 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5

1084. beell 18:32 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Only the GFDL* still on the left side, it and the UKMET are updated to 12Z, the rest are still waiting the 18Z update.* And the only one left showing a good bit of land interaction and a track farther to the west to go with a weaker storm. Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12831

1085. CaneHunter031472 18:32 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: 18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks Irene Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) 18Z Already out? Member Since: 1 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

1086. Dem86Mets 18:32 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: 18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks Irene Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Are these really the 18Z models? Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1087. Skyepony (Mod) 18:32 GMT le 22 août 2011
Kennedy Space Center is at Hurricon4. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

1088. RyanFSU 18:33 GMT le 22 août 2011
ECMWF 12z has landfall in North Carolina ... 144 hours Member Since: 13 février 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

1089. atmoaggie 18:33 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: 18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks Irene Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Thankfully extrapolation is a terrible predictor! (As it is in all things in this subject matter...) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1090. Patrap 18:33 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1091. CybrTeddy 18:33 GMT le 22 août 2011
Remember everyone, a lot of the track will be dependent on the short term intensity. If Irene suddenly weakens, it will be forced into Haiti with further weakening likely. It will then be forced more westward, putting FL well into play. If Irene suddenly decides in the next 36 hours to bomb out into a major, it will be forced more north and it might just scrape the US coastline. Conditions are very favorable for further intensification of Hurricane Irene at this time in the Bahamas, and no one should put their guard down. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

1092. GTcooliebai 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker: This is the HPC's forecast surface map for day 4!! Notice the Texas high has retreated to the 4 corners region and the A/B high building in rather strongly!!! I have to go, but you showed this in your video a couple days ago. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5164

1093. AegirsGal 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting DookiePBC: Not so easy...when tropical activity threatens, the squirrels are the first to know. They tend to arm themselves, as shown in my avatar. ;-) The one on my friend's computer just sits and drinks Guinness. Member Since: 2 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291

1094. 7544 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
irene is nudging more west at this hour Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

1095. tiggeriffic 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
hmmmmmm....one of the tv mets just made a comment that Irene hasn't really been doing what they expected so much...seems as tho she is creating her own environment and track and rather ignoring what the troughs should be doing...idk...sounds a bit like what hugo did... Member Since: 16 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

1096. Patrap 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: Thankfully extrapolation is a terrible predictor! (As it is in all things in this subject matter...) It almost poked me in the eye getting the Mail. Im gonna complain to them. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1097. DookiePBC 18:34 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: Forget these stupid models....What are the ants in south Fl doing today? Ant activity on the increase. Squirrels have taken up crude weapons. That's just in eastern Palm Beach County though. Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 432

1098. Joshfsu123 18:35 GMT le 22 août 2011
120 hour ECMWF has Irene approaching NC/SC boarder from South... with Irene making landfall near the boarder as a likely major hurricane and then pushing north. ECMWF Model This model is lifting out the TROF, which allows Irene to turn north before getting to Florida (into the weakness). However, it keeps the ridge near the US coast in the Atlantic, which forces Irene northward into NC/SC/Mid-Atlantic states. This is the 2nd or 3rd consecutive run that this model has had a similar result. Member Since: 6 juillet 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

1099. RitaEvac 18:35 GMT le 22 août 2011
Never know the 2 highs can bridge together, Irene hits Miami goes over Florida, hits the panhandle, a double whammy Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

1100. bocahurricane 18:35 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: Forget these stupid models....What are the ants in south Fl doing today? I just checked, they are running around in circles and bumping into each other...what does that mean? LOL Member Since: 6 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

1101. JNCali 18:35 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: Forget these stupid models....What are the ants in south Fl doing today? They are all having afternoon prayers while facing towards the NHC Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1022

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