Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:40 GMT le 22 août 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1401. CothranRoss 19:37 GMT le 22 août 2011
So is Irene starting to show that "buzzsaw" look again? Member Since: 16 avril 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112

1402. ChrisDcat5Storm 19:37 GMT le 22 août 2011
looks like she took a seat Member Since: 18 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 167

1403. Drakoen 19:37 GMT le 22 août 2011
I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1404. GBguy88 19:38 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting trey33: Anyone know where Jim Cantore is? I'd venture a guess that he'll pop up in Morehead City or Kill Devil Hills...those seem to be his cities of choice for NC hurricanes. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

1405. weatherguy03 19:38 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: Do you think we'll see continued eastward movement of the models? Or will they seesaw for a couple of days? The model runs tonite(8PM) and tomorrow morning(8AM) will tell the tale with that Upper Air Data in them. We will see if this shift is permanent or does it go back West?? Or even farther East?? Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

1406. Nimitz 19:38 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting GBguy88: If you're in Atlantic Beach and Irene decides to head your way as a potential Category 4 hurricane...one might consider that playing God to stay right on the ocean. Having lived my entire life within 25 miles of either the Gulf or the Atlantic, I'd say you're rolling the dice with your life...and Mother Nature and the Good Lord are the house. Bad idea...bad. Member Since: 17 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

1407. MississippiWx 19:38 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. 00z runs will be important. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8627

1408. MelH 19:38 GMT le 22 août 2011
Does anyone think there's still a chance that Irene will continue to be pulled to the west and miss the turn north, sending her into GOMEX? Member Since: 10 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

1409. Bluestorm5 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting GoWVU: Question did Hugo take a similar path back in 89? Hugo hit PR as strong major and beelined toward Charleston from there. Irene is not yet a major, but it can reach Hugo's status eventually. We'll see. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3660

1410. ElConando 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. This the first time the G-IV is being used with this storm? Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1411. wpb 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
G-IV Tuesday, Aug 23, 2011 NOAA-49: Scheduled for a tasked mission for Hurricane Irene. Takeoff will be at 1730 UTC from MacDill AFB/Tampa and landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa. Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 487

1412. PrivateIdaho 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5: Reed Timmer on Facebook- Looks now like land fall of a major hurricane (cat 3-5) near Charleston, SC early morning on Saturday. TVN heading east in Dominator 2 from OK leaving Wednesday morning. The hope is to measure vertical winds inside the mini vortices that spin around the eye wall of many major hurricanes. Well, Reed Timmer is like Jim Cantore of Tornado Alley... watch out Charleston! That guy needs a boat. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1413. bappit 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Jax82: Visible Whole lotta arc clouds from cool downdrafts on the west side. Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385

1414. mcluvincane 19:39 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: Just noticed the track it takes IRENE if she had no weather environment influences NC is in the crosshairs IMO. Sticks out and will be hard to miss Member Since: 2 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1415. Drakoen 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: 00z runs will be important. Absolutely, but we can also compare the what the NOAA-GIV measures to the forecasts made by the 12z suite to see if they are in sync. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1416. hurricanealley 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
12z UKMET 72 Hours West on this run Member Since: 26 Mars 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971

1417. Drakoen 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ElConando: This the first time the G-IV is being used with this storm? No, it has been used for several storms before in the past. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1418. Dem86Mets 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: 00z runs will be important. They will tell the story as to weather or not Florida is in the clear. Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1419. FirstCoastMan 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
Drakoen....When is the NOAA G-IV mission? Member Since: 7 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

1420. zoomiami 19:40 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting RobbWilder: All day, The NHC was saying there is NO WAY this is going to Miami and the east coast of Florida that this was a naples storm. All day THAT irene headed towards southEAST Florida. With no warnings, alot of businesses would not CLOSE. I found myself driving home in a bad situation that day. I dont trust storms named .. Irene. Yep. No way going to sw coast. Ended up bringing kids home in school buses during tropical force winds. Bad day Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

1421. YouCaneDoIt 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MelH: Does anyone think there's still a chance that Irene will continue to be pulled to the west and miss the turn north, sending her into GOMEX? No Member Since: 24 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

1423. sarahjola 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MelH: Does anyone think there's still a chance that Irene will continue to be pulled to the west and miss the turn north, sending her into GOMEX? nothing is impossible Member Since: 10 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1424. atmoaggie 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Whoa. Cochon de lait? I'm in. When and where? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1425. Bluestorm5 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting GBguy88: I'd venture a guess that he'll pop up in Morehead City or Kill Devil Hills...those seem to be his cities of choice for NC hurricanes. heard he's going between Mrytle Beach and Wilmington. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3660

1426. bythegraceofgod 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting treehuggingsister: Still tears my heart out every time I drive down the Biloxi waterfront. Because of the emotional toll Ivan took on us here in Pensacola, I know how they feel, what they went through ~ worst sort of shared experience. I am from Hattiesburg, just up from the Mississippi coast, and I still have not driven along Beach Boulevard. Those beautiful homes, cute little motels, shops, restaurants, etc. It literally looked like a bomb went off. According to the news Mississippi only lost a few tree limbs. Member Since: 5 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 28

1427. BobinTampa 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Good to see that Reed Timmer thinks the projected path is going to be dead on 6 days out. Got a feeling 'The Dominator' will be burning a bunch of gas for no reason. That dude got annoying in record time. Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1428. Dem86Mets 19:41 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: Absolutely, but we can also compare the what the NOAA-GIV measures to the forecasts made by the 12z suite to see if they are in sync. When are we usually able to read those measurements Drak? Thanks Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1429. DookiePBC 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. I may have to quote this later to sound smarter about this than I really am! For now, I'm going to nod my head and act like I understand. More data = good! Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 433

1430. PrivateIdaho 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting P451: so it's going due west right? Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1431. knightdog 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. If I had a dollar for every time I've said that! Member Since: 19 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

1432. Orcasystems 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5: heard he's going between Mrytle Beach and Wilmington. I keep it updated just the HH Tracks Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1433. hurricanealley 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: No, it has been used for several storms before in the past. He meant for Irene Member Since: 26 Mars 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971

1434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:42 GMT le 22 août 2011
09L/H/I/C1 RI FLAG (FLAG) MARK 19.33N68.09W ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1435. kmanislander 19:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: kman, Irene's 850mb vort is stretched south of the DR to the east of Jamaica and deepened over the past 3 hours. Any chance she pulls a Gustav and relocates her center down there like he did ? No. With the circulation being well established and the hurricane deepening there is nothing in the Caribbean that could conceivably bring about that result. Typically when a system relocates the center it is either sheared or the deep convection is displaced from where the lowest pressure is due to the system being lopsided. In either scenario the lowest pressure reestablishes itself where the deep convection is as happened twice with irene. That is why it jumped almost three degrees to the N in a day. No concern on that score. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1436. Jax82 19:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

1437. ElConando 19:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: No, it has been used for several storms before in the past. Sorry, I guess my wording wasn't that clear. I was asking if they had used the G-IV yet for Hurricane Irene but I just realized they had not yet. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1438. cyclonekid 19:43 GMT le 22 août 2011
Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

1439. MississippiWx 19:44 GMT le 22 août 2011
If you live in SC/NC, now is the time to review your area's evacuation zones. If you live in one, get out, assuming the hurricane comes to you. Check out the affects of a major hurricane storm surge on the SC Coast. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8627

1440. ncstorm 19:44 GMT le 22 août 2011
TWC said Jim is heading to Wilmington while Jim tweeted back he was told NOTHING..lol.. TWC PRTeam Heading out for #hurricane #Irene coverage: @JimCantore to Wilmington, NC; @mikeseidel to West Palm, FL; @StephanieAbrams, more TBD JimCantore Jim Cantore @ @TWC_PRteam Better check that guys. I have been told nothing. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8469

1441. zoomiami 19:44 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting kmanislander: I looked at the forecast steering for the deep layer ( major hurricane ) and the GFS, CMC and Nogaps all forecast a very narrow exit for Irene to the NW due to the Texas and AB highs almost bridging between Wednesday and Tursday. If this were to verify the track would look like the UK Met with Irene just touching the Fla coast near West Palm and staying just offshore after that heading generally to the N. Of course, how steering evolves is a matter of several variables including forward speed and strength of the system. For now anyone to the NW of Irene really needs to pay close attention as the track will likely move back and forth some. In addition, if Irene is a major hurricane as expected the center line of the track will not mean much especially to anyone on the right side of the circulation as hurricane force winds with a major could extend out 50 to 75 miles and TS force winds by well over that. Even on the weak side if it passes close to the Fla coastline the onshore flow of West winds could pile up a lot of water in the marinas and bays etc. coupled with beach erosion and rip currents so again, don't pay too much attention to the center line. I don't think this can be said too often, as it would have to be 200 miles off our coast not to have any affect. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

1442. Hhunter 19:44 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: I have already called the folks to put up my hurricane shutters. They are going to come on Wednesday morning if it appears the storm could head our way. Although we are ocean front, I am thinking about staying if the storm goes as projected. Can anybody tell me what type of weather we would receive here in Atlantic Beach, NC? my advice listen to your local government personell. But, if your ocean front given the right movement which is currently possible complete devastation could occur due to massive storm surge and major hurricane level winds. Evacuation likely highly prudent. good luck Member Since: 19 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2886

1443. Skyepony (Mod) 19:45 GMT le 22 août 2011
Click pic for loop Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29358

1444. GoWVU 19:45 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: TWC said Jim is heading to Wilmington while Jim tweeted back he was told NOTHING..lol.. TWC PRTeam Heading out for #hurricane #Irene coverage: @JimCantore to Wilmington, NC; @mikeseidel to West Palm, FL; @StephanieAbrams, more TBD JimCantore Jim Cantore @ @TWC_PRteam Better check that guys. I have been told nothing. Send Stephanie here to Charleston, she is easy on the eyes, LOL Member Since: 12 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 349

1445. SouthDadeFish 19:46 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. How well are the first dropsondes matching? Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1446. KEHCharleston 19:46 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting WCSCTVCharleston: Didn't think of it that way i took the picture down and I encourage everyone in the Charleston area to watch Live 5 news for all the latest info on storm track evacuations closings and live reports around the area to keep you and your family prepared ahead of the storm. Absolutely! Y'all are the best. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

1447. kmanislander 19:46 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. You hit the nail on the head there. The path to the NW may become very narrow for Irene come Thursday. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1448. nrtiwlnvragn 19:46 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: I'll be interested to see the readings from the NOAA G-IV especially the 500mb geopotential height and readings. Tropical Atlantic has the dropsonde data. So far in the Bahamas, 500 mb ~590 Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

1449. caneswatch 19:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Like everyone's saying, the 00z runs will show where this storm ends up. No matter what, it's not gonna be pretty either way. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1450. trey33 19:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: TWC said Jim is heading to Wilmington while Jim tweeted back he was told NOTHING..lol.. TWC PRTeam Heading out for #hurricane #Irene coverage: @JimCantore to Wilmington, NC; @mikeseidel to West Palm, FL; @StephanieAbrams, more TBD JimCantore Jim Cantore @ @TWC_PRteam Better check that guys. I have been told nothing. Thanks! Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 475

1451. Drakoen 19:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: When are we usually able to read those measurements Drak? Thanks When they go up? lol FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE A. 23/00Z C. 22/2315Z B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE D. 18.2N 70.9W C. 22/1730Z E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z F. 41,000 45,000 FT Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

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