Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:40 GMT le 22 août 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1451. Drakoen 19:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: When are we usually able to read those measurements Drak? Thanks When they go up? lol FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE A. 23/00Z C. 22/2315Z B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE D. 18.2N 70.9W C. 22/1730Z E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z F. 41,000 45,000 FT Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1452. Chicklit 19:47 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting interstatelover7165: Why will it be? because it's growing? or it's "pushing" the dry air out of the way? or something else? We've seen systems struggle to get going all year. Irene is not in that category and so will be an interesting storm to watch from a development standpoint. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1454. weatherlover94 19:48 GMT le 22 août 2011
the hurricane models seem to be wanting to take it out to sea and having it just brushing the coast. Do you all think that will actually happen or will it make landfall? Member Since: 8 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645

1455. TropicalAnalystwx13 19:49 GMT le 22 août 2011
Come home from school to see I may be dealing with a major hurricane come the weekend...great... Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25357

1456. timswunderblog 19:49 GMT le 22 août 2011
so do you agree with the current nhc track or do you think a more gfdl or ukmet model track is more likely? Member Since: 26 septembre 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 17

1457. sarahjola 19:49 GMT le 22 août 2011
can someone please post this chart? tia! Quoting USAFwxguy: Went back through to check and nobody covered the CIMMS update. Notice at low levels that the trough is seen lifting out and the ATL ridge is nosing toward the west, to the north of Irene: -3hr Current: Also of note is the TX high eastern periphery weakening. Member Since: 10 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1458. ElConando 19:50 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting zoomiami: I don't think this can be said too often, as it would have to be 200 miles off our coast not to have any affect. Always the risk of rip currents, unfortunately there is always those unlucky few that do not realize the danger and don't know how to swim out of rip currents either. Some live to tell about it others, well... Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1459. WaterWitch11 19:50 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting weatherlover94: the hurricane models seem to be wanting to take it out to sea and having it just brushing the coast. Do you all think that will actually happen or will it make landfall? Nothing is ever 100% Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

1460. Thrawst 19:51 GMT le 22 août 2011
When is the next Recon out? Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1067

1461. Dunkman 19:51 GMT le 22 août 2011
I'm confused, the G-IV is already in the air. Member Since: 6 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 214

1462. Dem86Mets 19:51 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: When they go up? lol FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE A. 23/00Z C. 22/2315Z B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE D. 18.2N 70.9W C. 22/1730Z E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z F. 41,000 45,000 FT I thought they left? lol Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1463. nigel20 19:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
Hurricane Irene looks to be moving directly in line with the Nhc's track. Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4556

1464. Speeky 19:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting timswunderblog: so do you agree with the current nhc track or do you think a more gfdl or ukmet model track is more likely? I agree with the NHC track forecast. Most computer model forecast tracks are sometimes off by 100s of miles at times. Member Since: 10 avril 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

1465. 7544 19:52 GMT le 22 août 2011
wow irene is about to put on a show Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1466. MississippiWx 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Really getting that core together now. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

1467. Drakoen 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: Ahh there we go lol my laptop was not showing anything. What does that reading mean to you? Oh that's not a reading. That's the time they are going in. Readings are available here: Link Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1468. ILwthrfan 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
That CDO is exploding. I believe we are going to get dropping pressures in this RECON. Wouldn't surprise me if this isn't upped to a 85-90 mph storm. Member Since: 2 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1033

1469. ProgressivePulse 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 19:36Z Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF) Storm Number: 09 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 05 Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4333

1470. TomTaylor 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Latest Dropsonde from Gonzo (23N 73W) shows dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere This is inline with the water vapor image (water vapor imagery depicts the upper third of the atmosphere) which is showing dry air aloft. Dropsonde location is circled in green. As already mentioned, this is all a result of the trough over the east coast pushing winds toward Irene on the west side. This produces convergence aloft. When the air converges aloft, it sinks (subsides). As it sinks, it warms by compression and dries out the air level in the process. Other than this, the rest of the upper level and oceanic environment are favorable for continued intensification. The only other issue is the organization and continued land interaction from Hispaniola (although the effects of this will not be nearly as significant as expected a few days ago). None of these are huge issues, however. So...Bahamas, SE US, mid Atlantic states, and NE states, start prepping now... Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3908

1471. robintampabay 19:53 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more. Grandpa, It is better for your wife to be sick at your daughters house than not so alive at your beach front house. You may have a dune protecting your house, but if that dune is not 20 feet or higher you can just consider it a spped bump. Storm surge for a Cat 3-5 hurricane can be from 12-26 feet. I am not trying to be an azz, just giving you my honest opinion! Good Luck Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1472. Bluestorm5 19:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: If you live in SC/NC, now is the time to review your area's evacuation zones. If you live in one, get out, assuming the hurricane comes to you. Check out the affects of a major hurricane storm surge on the SC Coast. as I said, this is going to be FLOYD STYLE EVACUATION all over again, but this time for Floyd hitting SC at Category 4, 12 years later... everybody in Raleigh is accusing me that it'll be just another "those weak hurricanes that hits us once every few years"... WRAL is starting to put stress on people here now with Category 3 hit into SC. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 3690

1473. 7544 19:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
if she stalls is that bad or good for se fla tia Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1474. ElConando 19:54 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Dem86Mets: I thought they left? lol They leave at 5:30pm, or 17:30. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1476. zoomiami 19:55 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting robintampabay: Grandpa, It is better for your wife to be sick at your daughters house than not so alive at your beach front house. You may have a dune protecting your house, but if that dune is not 20 feet or higher you can just consider it a spped bump. Storm surge for a Cat 3-5 hurricane can be from 12-26 feet. I am not trying to be an azz, just giving you my honest opinion! Good Luck Hmm. Needs help, in harms way and sick wife. Seen this before Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

1477. WeatherNerdPR 19:55 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: Really getting that core together now. I'm happy I'm not in that, anymore. Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1479. Carnoustie 19:56 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5: heard he's going between Mrytle Beach and Wilmington. not sure if thats good or bad,we here in Surfside Beach dont need another Hugo type hurricane. Member Since: 31 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

1480. Houstonweathergrl 19:56 GMT le 22 août 2011
Skye, Thanks for posting that image. Looks like a storm quickly getting it's act together. Scary stuff. I pray for all in her path. Never thought I'd say it but thank God for the Texas Ridge. Member Since: 8 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 135

1481. CaicosRetiredSailor 19:56 GMT le 22 août 2011
Whoa!!! first outrider squall hits here on Provo I recorded a gust of 55 mph from NE gonna be a long 48 hours I think Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5139

1482. MississippiWx 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: I'm happy I'm not in that, anymore. PR must have done fairly well, I guess? Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

1483. Dem86Mets 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Drakoen: Oh that's not a reading. That's the time they are going in. Readings are available here: Link I know lol I am sorry I am not being specific, trying to post while my boss is in the office:) These numbers: 1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 65° (from the ENE) 27 knots (31 mph) 1000mb 100m (328 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 65° (from the ENE) 27 knots (31 mph) 925mb 782m (2,566 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F) 80° (from the E) 44 knots (51 mph) 850mb 1,513m (4,964 ft) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 13.7°C (56.7°F) 80° (from the E) 46 knots (53 mph) 700mb 3,153m (10,344 ft) 9.4°C (48.9°F) 8.9°C (48.0°F) 70° (from the ENE) 25 knots (29 mph) 500mb 5,880m (19,291 ft) -4.5°C (23.9°F) Approximately -28°C (-18°F) 60° (from the ENE) 16 knots (18 mph) 400mb 7,600m (24,934 ft) -15.9°C (3.4°F) Approximately -37°C (-35°F) 25° (from the NNE) 9 knots (10 mph) 300mb 9,720m (31,890 ft) -29.9°C (-21.8°F) Approximately -59°C (-74°F) 330° (from the NNW) 12 knots (14 mph) 250mb 10,990m (36,056 ft) -39.3°C (-38.7°F) Approximately -66°C (-87°F) 250° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph) 200mb 12,480m (40,945 ft) -51.5°C (-60.7°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 175° (from the S) 20 knots (23 mph) Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1484. petewxwatcher 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
How tall is a -89 C cloud top? Member Since: 24 Mars 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392

1485. Bluestorm5 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
I'm going to give it one or two more days before I start getting ready for storm here in Raleigh. Huge storm last night had weaken the ground, so flooding from Irene will be VERY dangerous. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 3690

1486. nrtiwlnvragn 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ElConando: They leave at 5:30pm, or 17:30. The NOAA high altitude flight is in the air. There is also one scheduled for the Air Force in the GOM, but I have not seen any data from it yet. Also, 17:30 is 1:30 PM EDT. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8946

1487. Drakoen 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
Wish there was a site to see the GFS 500mb height contours in small intervals. But from what I can see, and using the GFS things are matching up...so far. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1488. rchira1 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN. *VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.* Member Since: 30 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14

1489. IpswichWeatherCenter 19:57 GMT le 22 août 2011
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 184500 UTC Lat : 19:31:37 N Lon : 68:11:13 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 978.5mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.9 4.3 4.3 Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 87km - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.1 degrees *********************************************** * Member Since: 27 avril 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097

1490. bohonkweatherman 19:58 GMT le 22 août 2011
High Pressure is Strong as ever over Texas, have not seen any change in months here and it should remain strong rest of the week, high pressure is also building to the Northeast of the System and building West. Irene can only go west to northwest, then north and eventually northeast around the high pressure. Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1491. kimSCbeaches 19:58 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Carnoustie: not sure if thats good or bad,we here in Surfside Beach dont need another Hugo type hurricane. Here in Murrells Inlet... praying this stays away!! Member Since: 4 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

1492. kwgirl 19:58 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: Thank you. I just hate to leave if we don't have to since my wife is sick. I am wondering if we would be fine in our home because we do have a dune and are set back from that a bit more. If you have a sand dune between you and the ocean, you should leave. That dune will be washed away by any surge, then it will be in your living room. It can cut you off from any help. Please go inland. Member Since: 28 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

1494. jbplefty 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting rchira1: REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN. *VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.* I remember that...the high built back in and we were all scrambling and in a complete panic. Lesson learned...be prepared and stay vigilant until it passes. Member Since: 17 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

1495. palmbaywhoo 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting zoomiami: Hmm. Needs help, in harms way and sick wife. Seen this before You arent the only one thinking that, might quick on the reply also... Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

1496. wpb 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
on the nhc track what watches or warning would be posted from central fla east coast south to miami dade?? Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 488

1497. kmanislander 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Whoa!!! first outrider squall hits here on Provo I recorded a gust of 55 mph from NE gonna be a long 48 hours I think Much worse to come I am afraid. You will be on the dirty side of a deepening hurricane that could be cat 2 at its closest pass to you. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1498. PrivateIdaho 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: I'm happy I'm not in that, anymore. Good to see you! So how was it? Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1499. Bluestorm5 19:59 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting rchira1: REMEMBER HURRICANE ANDREW? iT WAS COMING AT SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MODELS AND WEATHER PEOPLE SAID THAT IS WAS GOING TO LIFT OUT AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. tHEN THE NEXT MORNING WE ALL WOKE UP TO A DIFFERENT TUNE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY HAD LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO PREPARE. tHEN ANDREW CAME TO SOUTH FLORIDA. tHE WEAKNESS NEVER HAPPENED OR IT CLOSED THE GAP WHICH IN RETURN MADE ANDREW CONTINUE ON THE PATH TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MY POINT IS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOT SAFE UNTIL WE SEE THAT NW TURN. *VOICE YOUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THIS.* Same with Hugo. My mom said people in SC thought it was going to recurve out to sea or NC coast, but it never turned and got stronger at same time. Gulf Stream are like HGH to hurricanes... Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 3690

1500. ElConando 20:00 GMT le 22 août 2011
Is it on GMT? Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1501. Orcasystems 20:00 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ElConando: Is it on GMT? Quoting ElConando: They leave at 5:30pm, or 17:30. Umm they are almost in it right now.... Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

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