Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:40 GMT le 22 août 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1901. flasooner 21:10 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: This is starting to look so Floyd-like. Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

1902. asgolfr999 21:10 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting SeaMule: notice in the RGB loop, how much LARGER the storm in total square miles is getting. it will take longer to wind up....however, and unfortunately....it will be a larger storm Look for another katrina or andrew...imho and it will head into the GOM No.....It will not Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

1903. charlottefl 21:11 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting rchira1: *NEWS FLASH* Until it makes that turn to the northwest and north, This system is still coming towards South Florida. Remember Hurricane Andrew, It was coming straight towards south florida and all of the computer models and weather people said it was going to turn northwest and north . Then the next day all of south florida woke up with less than 24 hours to prepare because the storm missed it turn to go northwest/north. Cause the ridge built in at the last minute and made andrew continue to go west. So again. *VOICE YOUR OPINIONS WHAT U THINK* I think wisdom would tell you to keep an eye on it until it has passed your latitude to the North.. Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1905. kmanislander 21:11 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean? It means that they are trying to pin down the track ( steering flow ) and upper air dynamics that control the rate of intensification considering the forecast is calling for this to be a major cane. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1906. washingaway 21:11 GMT le 22 août 2011
NAM 84hrs. Member Since: 14 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1127

1907. GeoffreyWPB 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
Irene is a poppin' now... Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

1908. wpb 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC) Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 20:27Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number: 09 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 02 Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 22nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 300mb Coordinates: 31.0N 79.0W (View map) Location: 131 miles (211 km) to the SE (128°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 (About) Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1012mb (29.88 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 29.6°C (85.3°F) Approximately 24°C (75°F) 250° (from the WSW) 17 knots (20 mph) 1000mb 107m (351 ft) 28.6°C (83.5°F) Approximately 24°C (75°F) 250° (from the WSW) 16 knots (18 mph) 925mb 797m (2,615 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 255° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 1,532m (5,026 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 290° (from the WNW) 7 knots (8 mph) 700mb 3,176m (10,420 ft) 9.4°C (48.9°F) Approximately -4°C (25°F) 320° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph) 500mb 5,880m (19,291 ft) -5.1°C (22.8°F) Approximately -38°C (-36°F) 305° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph) 400mb 7,600m (24,934 ft) -16.9°C (1.6°F) Approximately -33°C (-27°F) 325° (from the NW) 21 knots (24 mph) 300mb 9,690m (31,791 ft) -32.9°C (-27.2°F) -32.9°C (-27.2°F) 260° (from the W) 17 knots (20 mph) Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

1909. Chicklit 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
The outliers take it to the Outer Banks and north at this point. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1910. rv1pop 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
Grandpaof4 from a grandpa of 12 ;;; Board up and have someone watch your place. Head out of the path and find a place to rent a Motor Home. Almost anyone can drive a 24 foot one. Go for a vacation until this is over. The MH rental will be less than a hotel room, you can go where you want and leave if you need to, and you carry your own food so can fix what you want when you want. --- We have even taken the MH to the grocery store and did not come back home for a week. --- But, we are full timers, so live in the MH even when we are on the property. A decent newer used MH can cost less than a second car (and makes a good one when traveling with the grand kids.) BTW - the MH is our emergency preparation! Our storm kit! Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

1911. atmoaggie 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean? HEADS UP! Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1913. treehuggingsister 21:12 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I think some of the FEMA reaction to NOLA was because there had been some governmental decisions that helped to create the disaster. Where other locations in other storms may have suffered just because of geography, there were, from my understanding of what I read prior to Katrina, some political "stuff" that should have been dealt with but wasn't. Your relatives and other hurricane victims in other parts of the GoM also became lower priority in part because Katrina was a horror situation that nobody expected to deal with and everybody wanted cleared away as quickly as possible. And even the "priority" cases from Katrina had difficulty with housing after 2005 Oh, please! I don't want to give the impression I was talking about relatives or family in any way. I wasn't. The "we" was a collective one. I meant all of us in Escambia County and, most importantly, the least fortunate among us, who were victimized twice ~ once by circumstances beyond their control and then by the government in its rush to address the Katrina human disaster. Member Since: 18 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188

1914. TampaSpin 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Remember how many on here was making fun of the GFS Model and how intense it took IRENE.......LOL....guess its about to throw some crow in many peoples face. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1915. ncstorm 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting flasooner: This is starting to look so Floyd-like. floyd was almost a Cat 5 until it went to a category 2..looks like the same thing again according to the latest NHC map Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

1916. PrivateIdaho 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting weatherlover94: if you live in North or South Carolina you need to start thinking about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routes going to be?...if you plan on riding the storm out what will you need? 1) Batteries for flashlights if power goes out 2) plenty of caned goods and non perishable foods 3) extra cash 4) and extra medications on hand 5) also know how you will evacuate your pets.. (PREPARE NOW!!) 6) Water in old nasty milk jugs. 7) Crow bar. 8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1917. yoboi 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
what is a plane doing in the GOM????? Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421

1918. afwxguy86 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean? More real data for the models to use... better forecast. Without this data, the models must "guess" about what the conditions actually are, then they "guess" where the storm is going/how strong it will be (so you have a guess based off of a guess). Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

1919. hahaguy 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Is it just me or on 2pm thursday is the track a little closer to FL or am I seeing things? Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

1920. atmoaggie 21:13 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: The news folks did not seem alarmed at all and pointed out that it is highly uncertain. And they are correct. Painful as it is for me to say (I am not a TV-met-fan), that is a perfect outlook for news outlets in NC to have, at the moment. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1921. Chicklit 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
10-feet of water in NYC would cause a multitude of rats to die. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1922. rchira1 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
Some at the national hurricane center thinks that the high might build back in and that is why they are sending up the balloons and extra aircraft to get a better knowledge if this can happen. Member Since: 30 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14

1923. presslord 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: HEADS UP! OK...I deeply appreciate you understanding the necessity of a simplistic approach with me...but I can handle a little more detail than this... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1924. kylejourdan2006 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
NEW BLOG POST Member Since: 18 juillet 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521

1926. AWeatherLover 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: 2 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431

1927. ProgressivePulse 21:14 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting DookiePBC: As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!! The cone shifted east above the closest approach to SEFL. Still splitting Grand Bahama, same as 11am. 56 miles from West Palm to west end, looks to be about 80 miles at the closest approach on the current track. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

1928. DontAnnoyMe 21:15 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting bwat: Im working out of town, staying in sanford, nc. Just watch wral forecaster really downplay the system. Big difference from the mets around home. the wral met pretty much said yeah, its projected to come over us, but 1 out of three times the storm is outside the cone.....what kinda screwed up mets yall get in this neck of the woods? They're right. If the center tracks east of Raleigh, the effects will be minimal in the Triangle area. Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1930. asgolfr999 21:15 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting presslord: so...we have 3 planes...and a bunch of balloons...in the air...What, if anything, does it mean? Mardi Gras? Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

1931. 900MB 21:15 GMT le 22 août 2011
Expect recon to find low 980's pressure and 90mph winds in time for the 8pm advisory. Member Since: 11 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 609

1932. TampaSpin 21:15 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting kmanislander: It means that they are trying to pin down the track ( steering flow ) and upper air dynamics that control the rate of intensification considering the forecast is calling for this to be a major cane. They have a strong feeling that she will become a very strong and DANGEROUS Hurricane. They are just trying to get it correct to get warnings out as early as possible if that would be the case. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1933. washingaway 21:16 GMT le 22 août 2011
Nice consensus here. Member Since: 14 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1127

1934. presslord 21:16 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: 6) Water in old nasty milk jugs. 7) Crow bar. 8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol. 12 guage Browning automatic shotgun...and about 1000 shells....I may not take 'em out...but I'll damned sho' slow 'em down... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1935. rv1pop 21:17 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting weatherlover94: if you live in North or South Carolina you need to start thinking about what you will need to do if you were asked to evacuate what are your routes going to be?...if you plan on riding the storm out what will you need? 1) Batteries for flashlights if power goes out 2) plenty of caned goods and non perishable foods 3) extra cash 4) and extra medications on hand 5) also know how you will evacuate your pets.. (PREPARE NOW!!) Load it all in your RV and drive! Leave early so you can find a good place to park. (WalMart) Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

1936. ecflweatherfan 21:17 GMT le 22 août 2011
In case there is anyone who THINKS south Florida is out of the woods, think again. Last time I checked, the NHC said "lessens the threat for south Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas." It did not say that this will not impact south Florida, and it did not say it was definitely coming to the Carolinas. Also there is still a high likelihood of TS force winds in South Florida, ~50-60% chances. No one is in the clear just yet... except for TX, LA, MS, AL and the FL panhandle, IMO. Member Since: 19 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

1937. nrtiwlnvragn 21:17 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting hahaguy: Is it just me or on 2pm thursday is the track a little closer to FL or am I seeing things? You. Use the NHC Google Earth that shows cone and track. You can zoom into an area and then change advisory # at the top to see the difference. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

1938. wpb 21:17 GMT le 22 août 2011
the model will have a ton of extra data gulfstream jet af 307 dropsones off the carolinas extra ballon data at selected stations 2 noaa 2 p3 orion flights tuesday plus the af c 130 wow Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

1939. RickWPB 21:18 GMT le 22 août 2011
The 'cone of error' along the east coast of FL is about the same as it was at 11AM, but shows Irene obtaining the 'M' label (cat 3) sooner. The center of the cone is now between SC and NC border... or a little to the right of the 11AM track. Sure would like to see the cone shift more right so ALL of CONUS is safe. For history of track prediction click link below: Link Member Since: 26 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

1940. usa777 21:18 GMT le 22 août 2011
It figures...I get chased out of Miss. by Katrina..Now I have a potential monster heading up into the mid-atlantic area. I know it won't be anything like Katrina when it gets into Maryland but I don't want any bad memories coming back. lol Anytime I get bad winds, it freaks me out. Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

1941. MoltenIce 21:18 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: 6) Water in old nasty milk jugs. 7) Crow bar. 8) Large caliber semi automatic pistol. You wouldn't need a gun if you're in Japan post-disaster. There were hardly any (or none) lootings after the earthquake a couple months back. Member Since: 11 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

1942. 996tt 21:18 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting drj27: its not going into the GOM where do you see this? Haha, say this tomorrow at same time. The last several strong hurricanes to hit CONUS all had east coast tracks at this juncture and all moved west day by day. Bermuda high, system not entirely organized with poor Southern outflow will keep drifting more WNW. Models are using steering for strong cat 2, cat 3 which be Northernly. If she hits strong cat 2 within say 24 hours, Carolinas. If she lumbers around as cat 1 with poor outflow on one or more sides, keys and up west coast of Florida penisula. Member Since: 5 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

1943. hahaguy 21:18 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: You. Use the NHC Google Earth that shows cone and track. You can zoom into an area and then change advisory # at the top to see the difference. I did just come inside form the extreme heat so my brains a little fried lol Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

1944. Levi32 21:19 GMT le 22 août 2011
Visible imagery indicates that Irene is trying to reorganize and generate a deeper CDO, but dry air has been an issue for the past couple of days, evidenced by outflow boundaries racing off to the west of the storm into the Bahamas. Irene will likely struggle to intensify significantly until she is well clear of Hispaniola. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1945. interstatelover7165 21:19 GMT le 22 août 2011
12,480m (40,945 ft) -51.5°C (-60.7°F) Approximately -66°C (-87°F) Just Amazing. Everybody watch out for Irene! Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1946. bwat 21:19 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: They're right. If the center tracks east of Raleigh, the effects will be minimal in the Triangle area. True, but he said that emergency managment offcials had to make plans now, but that was all for the time due to the uncertainty. Seemed like bad advice to me, but thats just IMO. I've always heard to make plans whenever you are in the cone. Saturdays a long way out I suppose, I guess kudos for them not creating a panic just yet. Member Since: 18 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338

1947. gatorman98 21:20 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Chicklit: The outliers take it to the Outer Banks and north at this point. We should be ok, eh? Member Since: 20 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 12

1948. DontAnnoyMe 21:20 GMT le 22 août 2011
NEW BLOG! Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1950. rv1pop 21:21 GMT le 22 août 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: This is supposed to be my vacation home. I winter in Florida. I will head to my daughter's house in Raleigh. She has a big house and no trees. She also has my grandkids so it will be nice to see them all on their own turf. I almost got property in Port Arthur TX, to have for a parking spot / Vacation site, but taxes were way too high - WalMart in CC allow RV parking, with security and a shuttle to shopping! Four grandkids just 7 blocks away. Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

1951. CothranRoss 21:21 GMT le 22 août 2011
Should I evacuate in Wilmington? I'm about 6 miles inland of the coast and about 30 feet above sea level. I just don't see the need unless it was a category 4+. Member Since: 16 avril 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 112

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