Category 2 Irene Approaches The Bahamas
As of 2am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.1N, 69.7W, 135 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti board to Cabo Engano, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands. Hurricane watches have been posted for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole, St. Nicholas to the Dominican border and the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of Haiti and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Santo Domingo.
5AM Update
As of 5am EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 20.3N, 70.1W, 105 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, keeping it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb.
Figure 1 shows that Irene is maturing into a vigorous storm, with apparent waves in the western edge of the cirrus outflow.
Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 135AM EDT, August 22, 2011
Track Forecast
Irene is forecast to move to the north-northwest, passing over all of the Bahama islands by Thursday evening, at which points it starts curving to the north. Irene is forecast to make landfall in the US near Wilmington, NC Saturday evening. However, it is important to note that this is not a definitive forecast, the average forecast error for day 5 is 250 miles. The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. After Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the mid-Atlantic coastline and locations further north, but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions.
NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a major hurricane (winds faster than 110 mph), within 24 hours, then reaching peak intensity at 130 mph (Category 4 storm) by 8pm EDT Thursday evening.
Forecast models and adaptive observations
The different forecast models are in rough agreement until Irene nears the Carolinas. The dynamical hurricane forecasting models, GFDL and HWRF, have Irene making landfall near Charleston, SC. NGFDL (a variant of the GFDL that uses NOGAPS for background conditions) has landfall near Morehead City, NC, and the GFS has Irene crossing the Outer Banks. The UKMET forecast track splits the difference, placing Irene near Myrtle Beach, SC at landfall.
To reduce the model spread, and improve the track forecast error, the NOAA Gulfstream IV and an Air Force WC-130J have been flying dropsonde missions north of Irene. A dropsonde is an meteorological instrument package dropped from a plane that can tell you the vertical profile of temperature, pressure, moisture, and winds. By flying these missions, the dropsondes can improve all of the numerical weather prediction models initial picture of the atmospheres, which improves the forecast. Also, NHC has asked NWS offices in the southeastern US that launch weather balloons to do so every 6 hours instead of the normal 12 hour frequency.
Figure 2 Official track forecast of Irene as of 2am.
5AM update
The 00Z ECMWF forecast is available and Figure 3 shows the maximum wind speed over the next week for the eastern coast of the US. Green indicates tropical storm force winds, while yellow and orange are hurricane-force winds. The important thing is not to fixate on the predicted landfall location, but to see that Irene's winds will affect areas far away from landfall. The GFS, not shown, agrees with ECMWF that Irene will have a large area of tropical-storm force winds associated with it.
Figure 3 Maximum wind-speed in mph from the 00Z August 23 ECMWF forecast for the next week.
Impacts
In the immediate future, Irene is expected to have a significant impact on the Bahamas and surrounding islands. Hurricane force winds are forecast to reach the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos sometime this afternoon or evening. These locations can also expect 5-10 inches of rain. Three to six inches of rain are forecast over northern Hispaniola, with isolated areas receiving up to 10 inches. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountaineous terrain. NHC is predicting a storm surge of 9-13 feet above normal tide level for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.
Outside of the islands immediately impacted by Irene, it is my judgement that everybody living on the eastern coast of the US should monitor Irene and review their hurricane preparations over the next few days.
Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.
Thanks for reading,
Dr. Rob Carver
Reader Comments
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A few of the models have the shortwave troughs moving down and through, then out again a little faster than before. As of current predictions, all that would do is move Irene further east, likely staying just off shore. However, if that trend continues, we could actually have the opposite effect, with the troughs moving in and out before Irene is far enough north, then the ridge building back in to the west and pushing Irene towards the coast.
The accuracy of NHC predictions has improved tremendously. They are off by an average of 200 and 250 miles at days 4 and 5. That would not be possible without the models.
Yes it does. My area, Sarasota/Tampa, was the bulls eye on Sunday and look how much has changed in 2 days.
I can make a new one just for you showing your location P:)
Nice of you to join us
Everybody's talking about NC and how it's going to strengthen over the next couple of days.
Guess what it's going to strengthen over?
Good grief. Where's Baha?
Grandpato4 in Atlantic Beach says his car is filled up and he's loading Mama in the car and heading out today or tomorrow.
So many people, so little time.
If you've ever been through hurricane prep you know how things escalate. You don't want to be one of those running around at the last minute. People aren't even looking at traffic lights anymore...It's quite strange as the distraction takes over.
NYC to Long Island :)
This product is designed to address those kinds of questions;
Thanks!
Oh me too, I was living in St. Pete then, on the water (the bay) - evacuated in a total panic (first hurricane).
Thanks for link. Been looking for a down and dirty explanation how highs and lows affect a storm's path.
Cat 5: Not a scientist, but I can appreciate and be scared of the energy bomb that is just about to explode as soon as the south clears the big islands. The size bothers me, a lot, since even CAT 1 Isabel did a number on two tide cycles in my favorite fishing towns. It has been a very long time since a major hurricane cut this path and a big major hurricane is big time bad news with the growth in population and property.
I would say Florida is out of the woods for a landfall from Irene but it could still see direct impacts. Direct impacts being wind, rain, and surf generated by the storm. Just a reminder that the storm is huge and is likely going to get bigger as it pulls more northward (away from any inhibiting factors of hispaniola's mountains, and natural increase in size from latitudinal gain) so the storm needn't make landfall on you to give you hurricane winds.
Fully expect Eastern FL to be out of the cone @ 11am, welcome news :-). Unfortunately, business is way down and we can't afford to leave right now. My rule is to get out of dodge for a 4 and above so that would have put us in a precarious situation. However, still can't let the guard down, Jeanne taught us that hard lesson.
Not so lucky for T&C and the Bahamas however, prayers are with you.
Good Luck and God Bless to everyone in Irene's path.
Link
As historically bad as this summer's drought has been, we may not have seen the worst of it.
There's growing concern among some scientists that Texas' drought could linger through another dry winter and return next summer to more deeply ravage an already water-stressed state.
"I've started telling anyone who's interested that it's likely much of Texas will still be in severe drought this time next summer, with water supply implications even worse than those we are now experiencing," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist and a Texas A&M University professor.
In the short term, there's little relief in store. Houston topped 100 degrees (101) again Monday, beating the record of 32 total days with temperatures reaching the century mark set in 1980 (not consecutive).
I would recommend reading the entire article as it really summarizes how bad it really is down here.
I am about to become a SERIOUS WISHCASTER.
This drought and heat wave are making people crazy! There are no green lawns, tree's are dying and it just continues........
Looks like it may.
Hmmm, thanks. Not exactly music to my ears.
Here you go . Now on with the countdown
AL, 09, 2011082306, , BEST, 0, 201N, 697W, 85, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 45, 30, 20, 35, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, D,
There is a javascript version of all the graphics archives available online here: IRENE Graphics Archive
Here is the latest animated Doom Cone
Quite a map. Don't forget these, directly grifted from Wiki:
Before the 1938 hurricane it had been several decades since a hurricane of any significance adversely affected the northeastern Atlantic coastline. Nevertheless, history has shown that several severe hurricanes have affected the Northeast, although with much less frequency in comparison to areas of the Gulf, Florida, and southeastern Atlantic coastlines.
* The Great September Gale of 1815 (the term hurricane was not yet common in the American vernacular), which hit New York City directly as a Category 3 hurricane, caused extensive damage and created an inlet that separated the Long Island resort towns of the Rockaways and Long Beach into two separate barrier islands.
* The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, a Category 4 storm which made four separate landfalls in Virginia, New Jersey, New York and southern New England. The storm created the highest recorded storm surge in Manhattan of nearly 13 feet and severely impacted the farming regions of Long Island and southern New England.
* The 1869 Saxby Gale affected areas in Northern New England, decimating the Maine coastline and the Canadian Outer Banks. It was the last major hurricane to affect New England until the 1938 storm.
* The 1893 New York hurricane, a Category 2 storm, directly hit the city itself, causing a great storm surge that pummeled the coastline, completely removing the Long Island resort town of Hog Island (New York).
The years spanning 1893 to 1938 saw much demographic change in the Northeast as large influxes of European immigrants settled in cities and towns throughout New York and New England, many of whom knew little, if anything, about hurricanes. Most people at the time associated hurricanes with the warmer tropical regions off the Gulf Coast and southern North Atlantic waters off the Florida coastline, and not the colder Atlantic waters off New York and New England. The only tropical storms to affect the area in recent years had been weak remnant storms. A more common weather phenomenon was a noreaster, which is a powerful low-pressure storm common in the Northeast during fall and winter. Although Noreasters can produce winds that are similar to those in hurricanes, they do not produce the storm surge that proved to be the 1938 storm's greatest killer. By 1938, most of the earlier storms were hardly remembered.
Many see "direct impact" as being the center making landfall somewhere. However, yes you're right, the entire east coast from FL to NC at least will see an impact from Irene in the way of either wind, rain, beach erosion or a combination thereof.
The GFS, and Euro and other models continue as of this morning to under forecast the strength of the Upper level disturbances over the Northeast US. Its fall in the Northeast this morning (55 degrees where I’m near the NJ coast)
I agree with met Steven DiMartino with his post this morning stating:
“However, the models have been under forecasting the strength of these disturbances as early as this morning’s observations, and that factor can not be discounted when examining the model guidance. A strong disturbance means that influential steering currents from the southwest must be taken into account in the error and thus a faster turning of Irene back into the Atlantic is still very much on the tables. In fact, there are now several models pointing to Irene staying off the East coast completely.”
That is the most enlightening post we'll see all day!!!
'Tis a frightening prospect. Don't know whether you caught this Drought Information Statement from NWS last week:
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS NOW IN AT LEAST SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...WITH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. WATER
RESOURCES HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY THIS SUMMER...AND CROP LOSSES
WILL LIKELY SET RECORD DOLLAR AMOUNTS.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMER...WITH
THE DROUGHT CONTINUING UNABATED WELL INTO THE UPCOMING AUTUMN. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DRY LA NINA WINTER...THERE IS LITTLE TO
SUGGEST ANY END TO THE DROUGHT.
BEGIN
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011082306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011082206, , BEST, 0, 126N, 149W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011082218, , BEST, 0, 123N, 168W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011082300, , BEST, 0, 124N, 180W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011082306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 190W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2011082312, , BEST, 0, 125N, 200W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Expect models shortly...
On satellite right now looks like 20,8N 70,5W if that blow up is over center.
Good Morning and yes Sky... if it wasn't for P18L then the High would have some additional strength to push back, if it deteriorates too much then it could be troublesome.
I wish we could be sure of that. But until I hear it from the NHC....
Well you would be on the NE quadrant, so you can probably expect some strong weather either way, but I would be making early preps, and that way if an evac is ordered you have everything done except for leaving. If nothing else it's a dry run..
We sold all of our calves Friday at auction. With prices so low, we might as well have given them away, but when you have no grass and can't get any hay, you can't keep what you can't feed. Sad...We live in fear everyday of grass fires.
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