Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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WOW, a Cat 5 just off the coast of Florida, scary stuff.
the city is entirely not designed to deal with a hurricane tracking very close to it.
I still don't think a hurricane has ever tracked up the bay.
in such a situation, would the deterioration of the cane be significantly reduced as it interacts with land?
RI FLAG (flag)
MARK
21.25n/72.75w
The weakness will shrink as the ridge builds back tomorrow, but it won't stay very long.
A friend of mine skippers a yacht in these waters and he once wrote me a letters whilst floating under one of these hurricanes. To say the least it was like something from hell to read, the most memorable line was," I just keep thinking, there's less than a quarter of an inch of metal hull between us and the bottom of the ocean,"
He suvived the fish storm, retired a bit crazy and became a stone carver!
Hell has many faces, not all on land.
If Irene follows the current NHC track, you'll remember her name.
Not discounting another shift to the east; but it should also be noted that the Bermuda high should be shifting W some. Will be interested to see the 00z surface analysis.
And isn't that steering flow just on the edge of what would be Irene's guidance atm? I mean she's just clipped under that, so she'd be inbetween that steering layer and the one below it, correct?
Choose the other one from Temporary Places
my highest gust at house here still 52 mph
waiting to see 8pm pos
looks like it may have wobbled East
People can't forget that this kind of a storm is the kind that New England has been dreading for ages. A miss east of NC does not mean it's over. In fact, it could be worse than a direct hit on Cape Hatteras.
@MississippiWX-The weakness is there but is Irene strong enough to break through to the north yet? She has to start to turn tonight as she intensifies... at her current slow speed can she go far enough north to get through the gap?
where ya at? Im owings mills here, balmer born, balmer bred. I was at the end of Bond St. Wharf during Isabel, watching the harbor flood. Hurricanes usually dont make it this far inland... we might be in for a shock if it does come up the bay though. Personally, I think we'll see trop storm force winds, and at least 300000000 Domino Sugar barges full of water pushed up the bay.
The storm was first spotted south of the Cape Verde Islands on September 10. Over the next ten days, it steadily gathered strength and slowly tracked to the west-northwest. By September 20, while centered east of the Bahamas, the hurricane is estimated to have reached Category 5 intensity. In response to a deep trough over Appalachia, the hurricane veered northward, sparing the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a high pressure system was centered north of Bermuda, preventing the hurricane from making an eastward turn out to sea.[5] The hurricane was effectively squeezed to the north between the two weather systems, and late on September 20, this set-up caused the storm's forward speed to increase substantially. During the early hours of September 21, the storm, centered several hundred miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, weakened slightly. By 8:30 A.M. EST, the hurricane was centered approximately 100 miles (160 km) due east of Cape Hatteras, and its forward speed had increased to well over 50 m.p.h. This rapid movement did not give the hurricane a sufficient amount of time to weaken over the cooler waters before it reached Long Island.[6] During the 9:00 A.M. EST hour, the hurricane sped through the Virginia tidewater. Between 12:00 P.M. and 2:00 P.M. EST, the New Jersey coastline and New York City caught the western edge of the hurricane.[7] At the same time, weather conditions suddenly began to deteriorate along the southern New England coast as well as on Long Island. The full force of the hurricane started to reach Long Island after 2:30 P.M. EST, and the eye made landfall at Bayport in Suffolk County shortly after 3:00 P.M. EST. By 4:00 P.M. EST, the eye had crossed Long Island Sound and was making a second landfall just east of New Haven, Connecticut. Modern analyses reveal that the hurricane was at Category 3 intensity at both landfalls and place the maximum sustained winds in the 120–125 m.p.h. range. After crossing Long Island Sound, the hurricane sped inland. By 5:00 P.M. EST, the eye moved into western Massachusetts, and by 6:00 P.M. EST, the hurricane reached Vermont. Both Westfield, Massachusetts and Dorset, Vermont reported calm conditions and partial clearing during passage of the eye, which is a rather unusual occurrence for a New England hurricane.[8] As the hurricane continued into northern Vermont, it began to lose tropical characteristics. Still carrying hurricane-force winds, the storm crossed into Quebec at approximately 10:00 P.M. EST while transitioning into a post-tropical low. The post-tropical remnants dissipated over northern Ontario a few days later.
I live just to your west.
Irene keeps trending east so we are in the clear.
It takes a really robust high to hold a system that could be approaching 960 mbs later tonight on a WNW track. I don't see that happening.NW will likely come sooner than forecasted IMO
Glad to hear you're doing all right.
Possibly, but the weakness is even larger in the weaker solution.
Actually, to be accurate, we have 3!
I saw that, I think it was his first storm.
You want a small eye for an EWRC.
Great news. Tonight could be on the rough side though as Irene is about to ramp up the winds.
my uninformed eyes tell me that -i know this is 2011
and we have all kinds of data to observe
but condtions change quickly and reading and learning from some of the smart people on this blog i am keeping a watchful eye as i live in jax fla
Exactly. This could be way worse. What's the likelihood (if) Irene manages to hit Cat 4/5 Levi, that she'll hang onto at least Major status up into the NE states, especially if she just paintbrushes NC.
Has to be said, she looks beautiful. It's a shame such destructive things just make you watch in awe.
So COULD the track still shift back west? Its hard to believe given the consistency of the models, and the consistent movement eastward by ALL of them... but is it possible?
i live downtown.
Isabel fizzled significantly, this one could have a lot more going for it.
She's not going to go due north tonight. It's going to be gradual as the ridge will slowly build back in from the east as well. Steering currents will be weaker and that is depicted in the NHC track. She's only supposed to be in the Northern Bahamas by 2pm Thursday. Once she gets that far north, she will be more easily influenced by the troughs passing to the north and will therefore pick up speed.
Inbound and Outbound
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