Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Dull question from a foreigner, excuse me: What makes a hurricane (maybe cat 1) so much more dangerous than a strong noreaster for these northern states?
i say some of you guys to no even no what you are talking about or looking at
this is NOAA NOT THE HH THE HH WENT HOME A LONG LONG TIME A GO
THIS IS WHAT IS IN ARE STORM NOW
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 22:11Z
Date: August 23, 2011
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 14
the recon will return later so there for there is no HH recon in this storm right now
Correct, there are 3 planes in the sky right now. The one in the storm is Mission 10 - NOAA2 "Kermit" - WP-3D
Maybe they wanted to do an equipment check. They are off towards Irene now.
the surge of water for one...i have lived up north... experienced a noreaster...but a cane coming from the south pushing tons of water on top of the winds, well....
Yeah, this pattern doesn't look like it's going to change much. The Texas ridge doesn't seem to want to break down ever.
It will probably change between troughing and ridging in the Northeast, but the Texas ridge looks like a permanent feature. The models hinted at it moving before Irene developed, but it never really moved as much as they indicated. In fact, it is building back in strongly over us this week with temps 100 degrees the rest of the week.
Today's tidbit was spectacular, Levi.. That animation showing the effect of the DR mountains over Irene injecting dry air... The fact that it won't acquire simetrical shape, and the fact that most Hurricanes taking that path near the E Conus, do not have a tendency to intensify.... Excellent...
Can you post that animation of the effect of the mountains..??
Dare I even hope for much rain for this area? or only coastal showers passing thru?
I'm guessing the winds don't gust over 100 in a noreaster right?
Irene looks like she is bursting to intensify
Whatever side the direction of movement is so if it's moving NW the NW quadrant, if it's moving N the N quadrant, etc...
They need a good Avionics guy...Tell 'em to talk to me in a year ;-)
For one thing, it takes a heck of a nor'easter to create hurricane-force winds in the northeast. Secondly, people generally aren't prepared for such weather in the summer. New England hits are relatively rare. Folks are out and about, and storms tend to move rapidly as they come through the area, approaching so fast that folks don't have much time to realize that it's on their doorstep.
ummmm...actually, depends on how bad it is...they have done similar damage wind wise as hurricanes... thing is they typically may not last quite as long as a cane depending on its size
Yep - think people need to prepare for that path, and then a more northernly path into the Mid-Atlantic states... tonight's ECMWF run may tell us a lot as well.
Have to imagine that the shifts east in the models will stop at some point.
same here
how can anyone say they are safe after x number of model runs....don't people ever learn????....jeanne....katrina....how many times do people need to be burned until they figure out a prediction is just that, a prediction. God didn't come out of the clouds and tell NHC this is definitely the path.....
secondly, if you want to believe TWC good luck.... NBC has turned that channel into a joke....They downcast worse than some of the lurkers in here....
Isn't light blue...the ocean?
And why's it called "Kermit" on the Tropical Atlantic Google Earth file lol
Floodman
**Bows deeply**
My spologies; it's a fault of mine to be a bit impatient and scan the posts a bit too quickly...I did not mean to infer that you were any less knowledgeable than you are and if I caused offense I do heartily beg pardon...
**was that a bit too formal? I really do apologize, btw**
Oh no problem...no offense taken at all:)
"The coastline in the provinces of Nagua and Samana is littered with trees and pieces of flotsam. Over a thousand people have been displaced, and at least two towns were cut off due to flooding. This, so far, has been the effect of the passage of Hurricane Irene along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. The storm center did not touch land in the DR, and in a fortunate turn of events, only the weaker western and southern sides of the storm affected the local territory. Even while the center of Hurricane Irene did not touch the national territory, the effects of the storm have been felt all over the country, in the shape of rains, wind gusts and thunder and lightning.
As a result, hundreds of people have been displaced and classes have been suspended in public and private schools. Yesterday, several government offices were also closed. The relief agencies have activated their contingency plans and the Emergency Operations Center (COE) is maintaining its Red and Yellow alerts for all of the provinces in prevention of mudslides and floods."
hello agua dog
Taz, you're wrong mate. One just left St. Croix, like I said.
Mission 11 into Irene.
AF302 - Air Force WC-130J
It's last HDOB:
Time: 22:09:30Z
Coordinates: 17.6333N 64.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 804.2 mb (~ 23.75 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,988 meters (~ 6,522 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.7 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153° at 14 knots (From the SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: 14.7°C (~ 58.5°F)
Dew Pt: 12.0°C (~ 53.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
seen like the recon is all so on the way two plans this is going too be fun
Posts: 5084 Comments: 105046
Lol...That's pretty neat.
Maybe they should name one Water Pooch?
I don't see any surprise landfalls for Florida, but Irene could very easily pass close enough to the state to bring tropical storm conditions to folks who might not expect it, given that Irene is a larger than normal hurricane. This may be like when Florida had to nervously watch Floyd make his turn northward away from them, but painfully close.
I think you're right
I know you have been dealing with it..been watching radar all day...Some of us haven't forgotten about
your area...Hope it gets better sooner rather than later..
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