Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I'll write them a recommendation for college to offset the collateral damage
SPOT ON...+1...that is exactly what I said in my head when I saw that model consensus....
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS
HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
WTNT24 KNHC 240256
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 72.0W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
have you guys seen the 18Z GFDL..
If I used I-95 as a guide, areas to the W will simply see showers with a few gusty winds mixed in, very light conditions. Areas east of there will see tropical storm force winds and some decent rain, and those east of US 17 will get stronger TS force winds up to hurricane force winds.
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
22.10n/73.13w
ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Thanks - never knew that.
I really think you would be better off staying in the city. I just dont see many structures inside the city failing. cat 5 maybe I reconsider...but even still, the structural steel isn't going anywhere.
and I don't see massive power outages occurring either. the conduit is all underground.
he's a retired Naval officer...sharp dude...may be aboard his 52ft Sparkman Stevens sailboat...not sure...but I wouldn't be surprised...I'm on a list of several people he texts from time to to as he and his wife cruise about...
Prayers be with him and all others in the islands...
I hope this isn't another Isabel. She was a rough one for us here in NE NC.
Recent history
After four decades of decline, Central Harlem's population bottomed out in the 1990 census, at 101,026. It had decreased by 57% from its peak of 237,468 in 1950. Between 1990 and 2006 the neighborhood's population grew by 16.9%, with the percentage of blacks decreasing from 87.6% to 69.3%, and the percentage of whites increasing from 1.5% to 6.6%.[51]
From 1987 through 1990, the city removed long-unused trolley tracks from 125th Street, laid new water mains and sewers, installed new sidewalks, curbs, traffic lights, street lights, and planted trees. Two years later, national chains opened branches on 125th Street for the first time – The Body Shop opened a store at 125th street and 5th Avenue (still extant as of 2010), and a Ben & Jerry's ice cream franchise employing formerly homeless people opened across the street.[80] The development of the region would leap forward a few years later with the 1994 introduction of the Upper Manhattan Empowerment Zone, which brought $300 million in development funds and $250 million in tax breaks.[81]
After years of false starts, Harlem began to see rapid gentrification in the late 1990s. This was driven by changing federal and city policies, including fierce crime-fighting and a concerted effort to develop the retail corridor on 125th Street. The number of housing units in Harlem increased 14% between 1990 and 2000[72], and the rate of increase has been much more rapid in recent years. Property values in Central Harlem increased nearly 300% during the 1990s, while the rest of New York City saw only a 12% increase.[72] Even empty shells of buildings in the neighborhood were, as of 2007, routinely selling for nearly $1,000,000 each.[82] Since completing his second term in the White House in 2001, former U.S. President Bill Clinton has maintained his office at 55 West 125th Street.[83]
In January 2010, The New York Times reported that in "Greater Harlem," which they defined as running from the East River to the Hudson River, from 96th Street to 155th Street, blacks ceased to be a majority of the population in 1998, with the change largely attributable to the rapid arrival of new white and Hispanic residents. The paper reported that the population of the area had grown more since 2000 than in any decade since the 1940s.[84]
Whoa, Dewey....I like it....but kinda dizzying~~~~ will save :)
am now on gen to get 11pm position
my bar at 29.41
seems steady at that pressure
conditions about the same as they were at 9pm
Most of us New Yorkers wouldn't mind Irene taking Long Island away with her on her journey to the Maritimes..
The buildings aren't going anywhere, windows on the other hand.. idk.. I've seen way to many cities get hit by canes and end up like this:
damned good to hear from you
Our Hopes and Prayers with you!!
High-rise buildings and hurricanes aren't good combinations:
Wow...
The only thing I can think of is that the convection in the eye wall is not that strong...and winds aren't being mixed down as strongly to the surface as a result...
...at any moment...those winds are going to surge with the pressure drop...if the convection intensity goes up around the eye wall...
stay safe...praying for all
I remember watching stream from Houston news during Ike. It wasn't a pretty picture.
Godspeed
Glad to hear you are still doing ok. Keep holding on man!
Viewing: 1851 - 1901
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