Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Remember, don't just look at the line in the track, look at the whole cone.
Wise move. Save gas. Wait for it.
Westward HO!
yep..it did go back west, 40-50 miles would make a huge difference in impact
is no one going to mention where the NHC has their pretty little dot at at 8pm on Sunday with an estimated wind speed of 85mph based on the 11pm advisory?
Thanks for the update, stay safe
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...
NHC 11 PM Advisory
There has been another fella using a thunder type handle the past few days and maybe they are getting confused on the proper name.
Looking forwar to hearing from you after it has passed. please.
Are you on a barrier island?
hmmmm SAL is almost gone completely.
Unfortunately droughts are often broken by Tropical Storms/Hurricanes and with the bath water of the Gulf waiting and if/when a storm gets in there, you guys would be in a mess of trouble. 6 of one half a dozen of another I'm afraid :(
We've been having ten plus per day here in San Antonio, and despite the drought, after each one, they have to pump 10,000 gallons of clean drinking water out into the streets to clear the air and debris out of the pipes -- which is fine, I just wish they would make some effort to reclaim that wasted water and use it for something. There are plenty of dying trees that could use it. Last week we had a break here on my street -- knocked out the water when I was mid-shower, mid-shampoo. It was like something out of a comedy, I kept waiting for someone to knock on my door with the punchline.
Not good for the coming weeks. Big storm isn't she?
Hate to say this...but yeah...Isabel could be repeated for NE NC...and this is the first time we have really good confidence in the forecast track...that is about as tight of a computer model consensus as you can get...
...but unlike Isabel which moved NNW after landfall in Cape Lookout...Irene looks to be going N or NNE...slightly east of Isabel's track...so maybe not as bad...but still significant. I know interior Virginia and coastal Virignia really got hit with Isabel...more like coastal Virginia with this one as she continues NNE rather than NNW and further inland...
...from there...unlike Isabel which moved NNW all the way until she died ove Erie,PA...the immediate coast of New England seems to be next...
0.1 degrees further west
same north latitude.
Pretty close.
Irene is 15 mph weaker than the 11 a.m. discussion indicated for this time. However, with pressures below 970 mb and probably falling further I think reattaining Cat 2 status will happen soon and Cat 3 later tomorrow.
Stop drinking to much coffee dude. lol
Link
938 MB storm in 48 Hours
Link
928 MB storm hitting the Outer Banks in 114 Hours
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/12zgf dl2500mbHGHTPMSL114.gif
Wilmington landfall = Clayton get direct hit.
Morehead City landfall = Clayton getting TS winds and heavy rain
Cape Hatteras landfall = Clayton getting just heavy rain and 20-30 mph winds.
My parents are saying, "Oh, it's just another Cape Hatteras storm..." but they did asked me to get grocery and gas tomorrow JUST in case. We are still between center line and western line on NHC "Cone of Death".
The ridge still seems to be keeping the lid on the Gulf.
Stay dry, Caicos!
Easy that's my governor, gov'na LOL
*Click graphic for enlarged version
Very large storms tend to have lower surface winds at the same central pressure due to the pressure gradient being less severe from the outside of the huge circulation to the center.
Grandpa I'm in Wilmington and I really think we are going to get socked with very strong tropical storm winds. Can you go to your daughter's in Raleigh?
Storm surge would be the real killer, not the winds, though the broken glass would be a problem too.
Doesn't have to be the coast... that cone has almost the entire Northeast engulfed in it lol
You know another option would be if you know anyone on the mainland you could stay with tomorrow. That way if you needed to evacuate, you miss all the traffic going off the island, and if not you're fairly close to home, just a thought. That's an awfully small margin of error in my opinion..
wouldnt that affect the path of the storm if they arent even intializing the correct pressures?
after checking some of the dropsondes, there may also be some dry air inversion caused by the southern inflow being affected by Hispaniola. Some of the dropsondes showed a substantial decrease in winds from the 925 mb level to the surface.
I strongly suspect that in about 8 hours or so, if the eye begins to look better, surface winds will increase to match the pressure.
That of course does not apply to everyone there, nor especially to those such as the participants on this blog, who typically know a lot more about weather than the average person does. But the problem is with the average person, as it is everywhere.
And in NYC in particular, there is a tendency among the local populous to think that hurricanes are only a problem where palm trees grow, not in their neck of the woods. For instance, I remember when Hurricane Gloria came close to NYC in 1985. Very little preparation was undertaken by the local government and many people did not even stay home from work in Manhattan. I clearly remember seeing a video news report showing a Manhattan truck driver who was actually mocking the idea of a hurricane as the driving rains were falling around him when he was making deliveries to businesses in Lower Manhattan. He said something like, "I ain't gonna let a hurricane stop me. You gotta keep working and not let a little bit of bad weather stop you..."
I would hope that if Irene does indeed threaten the urban Northeast, as is more and more in the forecast at this point, that the local population and especially the local government officials would take the situation far more seriously than they did 26 years ago. But time will tell.
The track did not shift...the NHC clearly states that it had no reason to change the track. I still will stand by what ive been saying..I believe the track is to far east and that the NW northward turn will be farther west quite considerably...resulting in a track shift quite significantly in the coming days.
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