Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Irene probably will not be a major hurricane at that latitude, but still, huh? It is NYC after all. Expect the worst.
Well..they ought to fix that with the GFS and ECMWF...why have somewhat crappy resolution?
Thank you. That kid wants it to go over his house in Raleigh.
ok and with your scenerio what do you expect for south east florida?
EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING
IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD
Pure Avila.... hope he sticks around for a while.....
I'm not beach front. about 15 miles from the water on the south side?
Tropical floater
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I'm not an expert, but watching the interactive warnings/cone feature in the NHC page, it looks like it moved west compared to the previous ones.
Absolutely incorrect. Lower Manhattan flooding, subway flooding, many lives lost potentially.
Last year Hurricane Earl 145 Mph Catgory 4, though had pressure of 928 MB
Here's euro wind path..
For now, but I worry when that lid finally lifts off...
85 mph for western Mass as per 11:00 PM dissuasion. And I live in western Mass!
Anyone mention the potential surge of the Chesapeake Bay that track would create? Not the worst path, but there would be some pretty good winds pushing up the bay for awhile.
conduit in the roadway is encased in concrete.
the water would have to get under the impervious asphalt, under the slab, under the voids in the dirt ( which if the road is built right, there won't be many), then get through cracks in the concrete...and then get through the pvc conduit.
I don't consider the water a huge threat. tons of air shafts to the subway in the event of a flood.
Listen to local officials on this one...
but on a personal and on your family's level...if you & your family were there for Isabel in 2003 and really really hated that experience...I would consider evacuation possibilities...
One of our local reporters is Australian and doing a remote on Irene from Jacksonville Beach. They gave him several locations to talk about and he tried so hard to pronounce them, but just couldn't get it and had to apologize more than once. I almost felt bad for him. I'm sure it will be a Youtube vid soon.
Examples:
Edisto Beach = "E'DEEEsto Beach"
Ocracoke = "O...Ocra..Orca..Ocra-coke or it could be Orcacokey. I'm sorry I'm not sure."
"...also maybe trouble in the...*furled eyebrows* The..Great..Dismal..Swamp? It must be dismal, indeed.
Yes but my husband couldnt live with 3 girls. One was a set of twins. This one I got here is the boy. LOL
This is just my first hurricane.
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This is tough, I would suspect that with surge and wind you should be okay, but its Irene's potential pressure that is concerning with the pregnancy. This link has the evacuation information for Virginia Beach in terms of surge Link.
Also, since you live in the coastal town, I would also strongly listen to any reports from the emergency management team that will have more specific info for your area. I suspect that they will have an update tomorrow.
I hope he is ok too. Hi Grandpa, there was some mean people on here earlier. I am on your side.
Take care.
The 2000th post!
Perfect. Says it all! Bedtime.
'nite all. My sides are still sore from the humor.
Kindergarten Cop! LOL!
That's the Euro from yesterday. The FSU site is normally a day behind with the Euro.
Those are global models. Their strong point is large-scale features. GFDL and HWRF model individual storms so they can see the details.
I am on Atlantic Beach. It appears the storm should go well to my east so I should get an offshore wind. Correct?
Grandpa - there is an average of 200 mile error on 4 day forecast - if the storm doesn't go as far west as expected, things could get quite unpleasant in Atlantic Beach very quickly...
I'm not saying you should evacuate, but i don't think the forcast path is set in stone yet. You might want to way for 3 day forecast and then make decision - assuming that you have time to get out before weather craps out on the roads.
Roads aren't so good to/from Atlantic beach..
;-)
Thinking we should see 100 mph cat 2 tomorrow morning...
Well...I hope not...I am in Raleigh too! Irene stay away...(sorry for being selfish)
...and no...what westward shift is anyone seeing...IMO I see the forecast path at 11 PM is DEAD NUTS the same as it was at 5 PM...just a continuation is all...
Basement dwellers beware.
Okay, my last one. I could not resist.
Thanks...still not loving that! Hoping for the GFS on this one... ECMWF puts us in a bad situation, need that eye outside of chesapeake bay and by a few clicks would be nicer! Thanks Skyepony!
Link
Kid its not 5 feet above sea level. You should be banned for posting wrong info and scaring people!
Am i bording windows or just riding it out? If western Mass is saying 75 mph , Im about 100mph right?
Don't let your guard down.
The sleeping giant has awakened.
Remember the Nor' Easter of 1992?
The photos are copyrighted so i couldn't post but google "Subway flooding 1992". Gives a good example of NYC's risk for storm surge
Sorta of a squeeze play on causing some weak steering.
But it wouldn't be a good record to break.
Yeah...you have a point...and if this higher confidence track verifies...Cheseapeake shouldn't see as much surge as they did in Isabel I imagine...
965.2 mb
(~ 28.50 inHg
Quite a change from 3 hours ago.
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