Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Don't think so....see post 2133....
yup
No, but I do know its not a damn fish storm.
It took a little jog west in the last frame, but it is still pretty much on course for the time being.
More power to you! We had 5, one at a time, and I always thought twins would have been more efficient. Besides, once you have three you don't have enough hands for all of them anyway. So what's one more?
We had four boys and one girl. We used to say we had four sons and a sister for each of them. When people in the mall would comment on the number of our children, Hubby would say, "They're all from my wife's first marriage" and people would think he was a saint. ;-)
ENJOY them, love them and just wait until you have grandchildren. After all those boys, we now have three granddaughters! Had we known how wonderful grandkids are, we would've had them first! LOL!
With apologies for being a bit off topic. I'm watching Irene closely and trying to educate folks up here in New England so they'll pay attention and be prepared.
I think I see what your saying. So are you thinking this may pull Irene a little more west than the models are predicting? Oh and by the way, Your Rays just signed an awesome player when they acquired Mikie Mahtook. I've been watching him play since his freshman year at LSU and he is a great ballplayer.
darn it!!! my dad b-day in on Sunday, we planned a party... all messed up now then!
I've been wondering the same thing. Apparently the NHC thinks the models are too weighted toward the east, but does anyone know what makes them think so? (I'm not talking only about this latest westward jog but that the models have been consistently more easterly than the NHC track.)
Boy that sounds so good....a heck of a lot better than cold Campbells :]~~~
You are right....TCI is getting the brunt now...looks like I will need to reperform this ceremonial soup eating 24 hours again tomorrow....
someone asked earlier about wind field comparisons...
For me as well :D We're on the same island!
Condolences! You may need to have a Hurricane Party. My first hurricane was Hurricane Donna and it slammed into Rhode Island, where we were living, two days after my 5th birthday. I send my best for your Dad.
From what I've seen on this blog "Due West" can mean anywhere from 270 to 285, even 295 if they're really excited.
I'm hoping this is just a wobble, and a short-lived one, followed by a much longer jog to the north....
BTW, for those of you watching a turn for the first time, don't expect that smooth track like the ones the forecast shows. Most hurricanes lurch back and forth like a waddling duck....
LOL
Well...the NHC is conservative with shifting the cone with the model consensus...they are always slightly behind the model consensus just after a shift until it is clearer that the models stay put on that consensus for a little while longer....otherwise their cone sways would just be too dramatic all the time to take them seriously....
HA!! Mind if I steal those in about 30 years?? =)
Well it's nice to see the Texas High finally bit the big one...
more likey
appreciate it very much :)
In New Orleans the grid is above ground. In most of NYC the grid is below ground. Power wouldn't be out for "weeks".
I find it kind of interesting the models are in such tight agreement. its kind of rare to see that. Normally we have at least an outlier or two. At this point, you could draw about a 100 mile wide arrow and encompass every single model. Its kind of eerie.
hmm and if it still doesen't pull up afterwards then Fl is in some deep crap and if it still doesen't pull it could hit cuba and then well think about this a track like Ike(08) then like Charley(04)
(just sayin)
hey guys
It has already hit Puerto Rico, brushed the Dominican Republic and is barreling across the Bahamas, so no, it isn't a fish storm.
Guess you could say that's like Chandler is due west of Whitehouse, LOL (my old stoppin' grounds)
Bernoulli's Principle
For an inviscid flow, an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure.
I think that Irene may be responding to the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba in much the same way. That air between these two islands is moving much faster, than the air moving over the top of these islands. Thus, there's an area of lower pressure between the two islands, and her low pressure core is drawn towards this, much like a trough. The gap between the two islands, is in effect ... acting as a giant wing of sorts.
Any thoughts?
Did they say Annular??
Lol ok, what scared me the most was the NW Hou thing. I was born and raised on that side of town but got tired of having to pack heat just to cut the yard. lol
I think so. We still need to see though. That cutoff low just does not seem to fit the bill.
By the way, look forward to seeing your boy play! It's gonna be exciting for us avid Rays fans. You guys play some nice college baseball. I'm FSU alum, but Geaux LSU. You've got my vote :)
As it stands, it is only about 40 NMI east of Great Inagua at this time, based on last fix, which would put it there before sunrise.
Meet Irene, the nemesis of the Bahamas...
The coffee, though, is over there.
If I say what that looks like I'll be banned, so I'll keep my mouth shut.
Irene's still trying to pull in that eastern blow up into her core.
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