Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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No hurricane coming near NY is a good scenario. I just don't like when .people hype the situation beyond what this particular storm is capable of in that area. If anything Providence RI and Mass will have it worse.
Redding, CT.. I know I said NYC but I used just for reference and because that's where I work every day
I know, I was just making a funny!
hello Bluestorm, glad to see you are taking the storm seriously. She keeps wobbling westward. How many times does she have to "Wobble" before people start saying she is moving westward?
This could explain
Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box
Good morning to you too.
Irene has already killed one person in Puerto Rico and dumped 20 inches on that island. Not to mention the pounding the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands are getting. Even if Irene doesn't hit the U.S. it is not a fish storm and has already caused loss of life and extreme damages.
still not scared. those buildings will slow that water down, like giant steel riprap. I mean, the entire city is impervious. I am thinking that water is going to discharge pretty quick.
LMFAO!!....as a nurse....every time I hear the word annular....first thought.....grab a pair of gloves!!
Link
Love that movie and same here.
It's still WNW as of last fix...
See my last comment. Appears to be a cutoff upper level low that may truncate the trough thats supposed to turn the storm north.
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
22.10n/73.13w next checkpoint
off track sw jog
ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
It's an upper tropospheric cold low that apparently branched off from the shortwave trough passing to the north of Irene. The global models did not initialize the feature too well, but for what it's worth, foresee it lifting out and filling, ultimately having no implications on the track of Irene.
looking at IR atlantic wide view it seems the north eye is a bit better defined.
Link
it's to miss the next track point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.htm l
I clicked on the tropical pts. check box while watching this animation...I see what is getting y'all's attention...yeah it is a bit of a westward deviation after all. But still...this will amount to a slight nudge to the left or about the same NHC forecast track in the end...
Now if the center ends up approaching Abaco Island...that is a significant westward shift. I am using Abaco Island as a marker here...
Also think of this...say Irene ends up going more west...that means she is also further SOUTH of the forecast points...meaning by the time she starts turning north...she is further south relative to the troughs that will turn her around...meaning she will end up more on the south side of those troughs than the SE side of them...perhaps leading to a sharper turn to the right at the end of the forecast period....
Redux, check it out: Sounds like you live in the NYC area, yes? I live in NOLA, have lived in FLA, have been through many many hurricanes and went through hell in the aftermath of Katrina. My 16-year old son is currently working a summer job in NJ/NYC area, and he went through Katrina, too. Here's what he's doing: imploring his friends to buy plywood ahead of time to no avail. Preparing to get in the car and leave if necessary. Personally taking the responsibility to keep his car topped off and an extra five gallons of gas in reserve. Pulling out cash from the ATM ahead of time. Freezing 2-liters full of water to keep his food preserved and for drinking. Stocking up on gatorade, canned food, disposable plates and utensils and baby wipes and hand sanitizer in case the water becomes contaminated.
And he's 16. He's a kid.
Here's what he's NOT doing: sitting online arguing about the potential severity of this storm. Yes, he hopes it misses them. Yes, he's confident he'll survive and that the majority of the people around him will as well. But he's no fool.
Don't be fool.
If you're up in that neck of the woods, prepare now before people start freaking the hell out all around you. Y'all have a LOT of people up there, so you might as well be ahead of the game just in case.
It's all downhill from here. Hang on tight.
04:15:00
21.13 72.28
T6.0
Initial/Final T number 6.0
Adjusted T Number 6.3
Raw T Number 6.5
I spent all night sitting in Rita's 100 to 110 mph sustained winds. Winds was blowing so hard that water was coming in my house thru the brick wall. Felt like I sat in some kind of hell for about 8 hours as the storm turned around me and I was in the bad NE quadrant for a long time. Don't want to go thru that again anytime soon.
Thanks please keep posting these!
:) Leave it to you Baha. Staying safe???
Yes I agree. I saw the blob feature this afternoon in that area and was saying that a low forming in the area would be trouble. I think that is happening. It should be noted that NOAA was saying that a low will build in behind Irene and will sling shot her to the left after she gets north of NC which is why we have the disaster discussion going on for NY above in the blog.
that is a lot different than a storm surge though from the south.
4 to 8 feet storm surge AFTER it gets to long island and then crosses there, and has landed on the mainland?
thats not going to cause 1 billion dollars.
very true
Why does Irene have four eyebrows?
Yep...I concur...minus the whole soup thing in comment 2223...that was what I was trying to say....
....Do you think Korithe that the upper low could slightly alter the strength (if gets too close to Irene...a tad bit of outflow disruptoin...a little further from Irene could enhance Irene's outflow)?
somewhere there is a "Low" mentioned building behind Irene that is suppose to turn her track right into the North East. NOAA was discussing it earlier and explained that is why you see the sharp leftward turn into NJ at the end of their latest project path
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