Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I don't know what to tell you. New York City is not New Orlean. not all cities have been built the same. the houses aren't built out of the plywood, and the roads aren't built on a few inches of gravel and a few inches of asphalt.
that foot of reinforced concrete slab under the asphalt is going to matter. when your drainage area is 100 percent impervious, you have places for this water to go.
hence the subway as the emergency spillway.
yes that is exactly what I said
I dont see it. Nor I dont see the numbers.
Eye looks to be tipped to the north with height slighlty...the winking effect you see....
Before I came to this blog...the significance of 'caster to me was this (link)
After going to bed in Navarre, Florida knowing Hurricane Georges was going into the Mississippi area to wake up with it coming back across the panhandle I know never to take my eye off of any path. The NHS is revered around here but they've been wrong many times!
Perfect example why one should not focus on the exact track. NHC has a near miss to the N on the current forecast. Still could however should it wobble back N, still heading west ATM though.
I'm on board with this as well. I'm no expert at all though. But only time will tell on this. It doesn't have a ton of time left to start making the starboard turn before it becomes inevitable to hit the conus, Farther west than the models are showing.
Maybe the differences between NYC or Boston getting direct hit?
Advanced Dvorak Technique for IRENE
She sure looks like the Cat 3's I've seen in the past couple years. Winds should pick up soon.
WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 16.0N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 16.9N 127.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 260000UTC 18.4N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 270000UTC 20.1N 127.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
Winds are in 10-minute sustained.
JTWC forecast map.
I went to HS in J'ville :-)
BTW saw some rain in the forecast for Texas tomorrow WooHoo!!
It's a group effort and to be honest it's a beautiful thing to be a part of..
I wish I could have been there for it. I remember Floyd like it was yesterday.
My home has been completely boarded and is storm ready. I sit at 45 ft. above the sea. On limestone.
How are you? Ready to go?
Judging by the vigalence here on the blog constantly...even for those not quiet in the cone (some perhaps calling this over-vigilant)...no one here I imagine takes the their eye off the storm here....
Very familiar with the stair stepping of storms, but the development of the cutoff low south of the Carolinas may be a major game changer. It's a recent development thats causing the trough to dig further west and maybe cutting off the shortcut to the north north west. This may be a surprise, but we are in "wait and see mode on that one".
Link
IR shows that Irene's southern eye has just completed "red" convection all the way around the eye.
Link
Why so far it follows a straight line through the islands. If the models are right a more northerly turn should come pretty soon but so far ... straight line
With the new eye feature it might become an annular
Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane
The florida doom casters will be out in full force shortly....
Link
Interesting, thx. Sat loops are 7 hours, and it has been fairly consistent for all 7 on this heading.
So by 8am we should know what's what then.
Hello there Grothar.....yea, she's winking alright...and seems perfectly oblivious to any weeknesses or anything else out there....IMHO..:/
Or new York / jersey. Or cape hatteras/ Wilmington. Still alot of scenarios, but 20-39 miles west would be a big deal for someone.
The Satellite is located at 25,000 miles above earth, but over the equator, so it is not looking directly down at it, but at a slight angle from the south, so the clouds to the south have that opportunity to obscure the structure of the eye in most systems at this type of lattitude. Winking can occur without the stadium effect.
I don't see any flattening of the western side of Irene.
We're all Doom!!
I'm still expecting the track to end up falling between Little Inagua [that little button island by Inagua] and West Caicos. But we shall see.
I'm gone, ya'll. I gotta get some rest!
This is getting nuts...
050830 2117N 07233W 6966 02848 9636 152 109 037016 018 012 001 03
963.6 mb
(~ 28.46 inHg)
img src="
And it's a good thing they don't. Growing up on the coast I had plenty experiences of, Oops they didn't see that one.
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