Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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And it's a good thing they don't. Growing up on the coast I had plenty experiences of, Oops they didn't see that one.
Those wonderful little "thingys" Oh Yea, Fondu Pots that sit on a stand with candle under them are super for heating soup, chili, water etc. After days of cold, hot food is fantastic. No hurricanes, Just weeks without power from massive tornados & Ice storms! The big thing they were asking for here after the Joplin Tornado, Manual Can openers! Much better than a rock (or hammer if you're lucky)& a knife. Dont recommend but what you gonna do??? Great way to lose a finger!
I beg to differ =)
Look at this loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ir4 .html
During the loop...click on the HDW-high check box...which shows the upper-level wind vectors on top. The big upper trough that has just left the US New England coast has left behind a cut-off upper low off the SE...the overall mass of this upper system perhaps impeding some of the outflow on the west side of Irene...giving some of the flattening appearance. But these winds are at the highest levels of the atmosphere and are not associated with the steering...the steering layers still indicate a WNW motion for Irene in the next several hours...currently still close to the NHC track forecast.
Link
Looks to be a weak upper level feature to it's west. Visible in Water Vapor Imagery as well.
I think the strengthening of Irene has led to the wobbling of the center...but the overall motion continues to be WNW. The turn needs to come soon, though according to the forecast.
The problem here is that a lot of people confuse being prepared with being negative. So, when someone suggests that really bad things could happen in a hurricane, suggest a structure or system could fail, or some catastrophic event could occur, the person suggesting it is perceived as being “negative.”
The opposite of negative is being positive. It’s easiest to do that by just insisting that the event cannot occur, even in the face of concrete evidence to the contrary (e.g. from FEMA, New York emerg management, etc.). Also, it’s pretty easy to argue every detail of what might and might not occur.
Being positive is a reasonable strategy most of the time as catastrophic events are very rare. But sometimes these events do occur. The “positive” people are then shocked and surprised, and unfortunately without any plan whatsoever. Katrina cured some of that, but the lessons need to be learned over and over in new places.
Remix – nobody is saying the sky is falling. A catastrophic event in New York is indeed unlikely. It’s just that in the unlikely eventuality that it does occur, you might want to rethink how you might approach such a situation. Just saying…
Coordinates: 21.3833N 72.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.0 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,914 meters (~ 9,560 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 83 knots (From the NE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 9.2°C* (~ 48.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 knots (~ 102.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Here in Indian Harbour Beach (moved from the Outer Banks of North Carolina this year), and the sky is lighting up and rumbling also... Looks like we're in for a fun night!
Best wishes to our Bahamas friends tonight thru Thursday, and for all my people at home on the Outer Banks of NC... well... I'm gonna stand on the beach Thursday and blow as hard as I can to keep this monster-to-be offshore.
There is also dry air over the central and western Bahamas and 10-15 kts of WSW shear.
new center fix not out yet
Take Care.
yup
lmao, dude, it's just a 10-15 mile jog if that, if you see the last frame it looks like it will be right on track of the forecast point on the next frame.
HWRF has shifted west, lets see if the GFDL stays the same on this run. If it does, thats bad news.
Ah ha! Here you go: A PDF of NYC's Hurricane evac zones. Look it over and feel free to repost to any all-of-Manhattan doomcasters that come along. That being said, flooding never would have been my main concern in the city, because you can move vertically away from that. But glass? Fallen glass everywhere. Flying glass and debris. All that. Saw it here firsthand - sofas thrown out of 26th floor windows by the wind, the whole nine yards. It can happen there too. So can civil unrest, lack of supplies, etc etc etc.
Glad you have faith in NYC's ability to withstand all that. That's cool. But it can't hurt to be prepared. That's the only point I'm trying to make.
Sorry, but do you have the link for these estimates?
Lost them from last year.
No matter where the fix is it's pretty evident from the past few IR frames that Irene is moving Due West.
Irene is starting to get off track. Shifting slightly to the west and looks like she is about to pass directly over Crooked Island if she continues the route
Link
There have been 2 eye hurricanes before...
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurrica ne_map_english.pdf
Pressure has been really low as well...once that eye is well-organized with deep convection...the convection will better mix down the flight level winds...and we will see much higher surface winds soon...it is even remotely possible she jumps from cat. 1 to minimal cat. 3 (115 mph) in one advisory...
Crooked Island??? You mean Great Inagua Island?
Indeed. Keep posted to the NWS Melbourne... these guys have done an outstanding job over the past several years with regards to tropical cyclones. Currently stating 200-250 miles offshore, with squalls here on the coast which could gust to TS force. I live in Merritt Island, so not too far away. Of course we all know, things are subject to change, could be farther or closer.
Coordinates: 21.2833N 72.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,848 meters (~ 9,344 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 963.6 mb (~ 28.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 37° at 16 knots (From the NE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F)
Dew Pt: 10.9°C (~ 51.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 knots* (~ 13.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
pressure keeps dropping but the winds actually went down from 100 to 90
please write the name of the model
Always have one of these, the P-38 can opener, available at Army surplus or good outdoors stores.
Thank you NCHurricane2009, your explanation and link were very helpful!
They'll figure it out pretty quickly if/when the SHTF.
Well...that is not amazing enough for me...I want to see a hurricane with two eyes wearing a pair of sunglasses...
Intensity likely overdone.
poor new york
that would be very bad!
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