Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
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It's 5 days away, however.
What's the last bolded part, Levi? The M. C23
Note: New 966mb vortex is just about on top of the dropsonde icon in the image, so it didn't move due west from the last fix.
Still not sure what some are seeing in terms of the models being wrong. The only real deviations I've seen from the general consensus has been wobbles due to the system fairly rapidly becoming more organized, as opposed to a mean long term direction.
Gloria was forecast to hit NC if I remember correctly. We got some wind and rain and she nailed the New England states.
New edit: having trouble getting it to show up here's the link
Link
That's the shape and size of the eye...in this case "C' for circular and 23 for 23 nautical miles in width...
What are your thought on this?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If I might propose a hypothesis for what is happening with Irene, and her jog to the west.
Bernoulli's Principle
For an inviscid flow, an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure.
I think that Irene may be responding to the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba in much the same way. That air between these two islands is moving much faster, than the air moving over the top of these islands. Thus, there's an area of lower pressure between the two islands, and her low pressure core is drawn towards this, much like a trough. The gap between the two islands, is in effect ... acting as a giant wing of sorts.
Any thoughts?
shes already south of the predicted tracks...not good.
Well...I for one see that even if this goes to Great Inagua...that is a SLIGHT deviation to the west of model consensus...
...my benchmark is if this thing looks like it gets close to Abaco Island...that is more like a significant shift to the left...
C = Circular. 23 = 23 numerical mile-wide eye.
LOL
We keep tabs on the years since the last hurricane here in the Northeast the same way a lifer in prison etches the number of years served into the cell wall...
Yepper. Different path from Irene until Cape Hatteras.
Gloria hit both. Cape Hatteras as 942 mb cane and Brookhaven, Long Island as a 961 mb cane.
A weather balloon was launched from Cape Hatteras in the eye, only the 4th time that has been done. And the last time I think. But I'm not sure.
Which storm have you been counting the years from...Bob or Gloria?
Man I'd be s--t'n bricks if I was on one of those flat little rocks tonight.
IMO its just a wobble and not a course change. It does seem that Irene may pass closer over Nassau now.
An interesting theory, but the amount of land lining the gap is extremely tiny (just the two points of each island), and most of the flow is actually northwesterly, mostly passing over Cuba before reaching the channel between the islands. The geography there doesn't support the channeling of the wind like he's suggesting, even if it were directly out of the north. You would need an elongated barrier on both sides.
Did you mean Abaco or Andros... Abaco is the northeastern most island in the Bahamas, just east of Grand Bahama Island. Andros is the largest one, ESE of Miami.
It has a long way to go to get to either.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 72°29'W (21.2333N 72.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the W (260°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 91kts (From the NE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:14:20Z
Amen!!
I lived in The Bronx for Gloria. I was only 4 but I remember some of the storm; mostly losing the crab apple tree in front of our apartment. There were also trees down in the yard of my day-care.
I moved to Middletown, NY Dec '87 and was there for Bob in 1991. We got some tropical storm force winds on the backside of the storm and about four inches of rain but that's all.
I believe this wobble west was significant enough to shift the entire track of irene a 5-10 miles west.
It's difficult to see very short-term motions of a developing eye on IR imagery, as the top of the eyewall is undergoing fluctuations, causing the center of the eye to not always be where the exact surface center is. We're kind of picking on insignificant details here, but we will just have to wait and see how long the WNW motion lasts and if the turn occurs where the models say it should. I've seen it happen both ways before.
Any comments on this?
Also, one thing i've noticed from lurking here and other forums for the past few winters and hurricane seasons is that this far out, the models usually have a good general idea for where the storm will go this far out.
In the last few days we saw a massive shift east, sparing Florida, Georgia, and possibly even South Carolina the worst of it. What i've noticed is that most of the runs today were also east, but not as drastic. I originally had a hunch that the models would correct to the west a bit tomorrow, and seeing the length of Irene's western wobles i have more confidence in that, but for all i know tomorrow i'll find myself mistaken.
What are your thoughts on this, as i said, im just making educated guesses here, and as an amateur i dont know how educated those guesses are haha.
most likely
I havent posted in two three years lol see ya
dew
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
**smack to the forehead**
yes...I meant ANDROS island...it that somehwat larger island toward SE Florida...
Very interested to see this run
I agree with you completely but I also think that the affects of land masses on the movement (and intensity)of these storms is poorly understood.
If it went that far south and west that is a GINORMOUS shift in track. That would guarantee a landfall in GA/SC/or S. NC
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